Japan aren’t traditionally seen as among the contenders at the FIFA World Cup, but a first quarter-final looks a realistic aim this year despite important absences.
A bright future was predicted for Japan by Akira Nishino when he stepped down as manager after the 2018 World Cup, handing the reins to his former assistant Hajime Moriyasu.
Moriyasu had previously won J. League titles with Sanfrecce Hiroshima and been lauded for nurturing young players in the process. He was, Nishino felt, a good fit for Samurai Blue’s next era.
Fast forward to the present day, and Moriyasu is preparing to lead Japan into a second successive World Cup, something no one else has done, and he’s already the first manager to reach 100 games in charge of the team.
While there have undoubtedly been positive aspects of Moriyasu’s reign, there’s a sense that they need to finally make progress in the World Cup for the past eight years to have really meant something. Like it was all building towards this.
After all, they didn’t win either the 2019 or 2023 AFC Asian Cups, failing to even get to the semis in 2023. And while their 2022 World Cup journey was memorable, they still failed to break new ground.
In Qatar, Japan were eliminated at the last-16 stage on penalties by Croatia; it was a bit of an anti-climax considering they’d topped Group E ahead of Spain and Germany, both of whom they defeated 2-1.
Going out in the last 16 was a familiar fate. That was the point they reached in 2002 as co-hosts, in 2010 and in 2018 – in fact, they hold the record for most matches played without ever reaching the quarter-finals of a men’s World Cup (25).
But there’s an unmistakable sense of belief swirling around this Japan side in 2026. It is confidence stoked by impressive results against good opposition, an exciting brand of football, and a talented squad that appears to have resonated with something of a shift in mentality.
That isn’t just a shift in terms of playing identity; it’s also reflected in the team’s mindset.
“Until now, whenever we played against a World Cup-winning team, the expectation was that we would lose,” Moriyasu told reporters in March. “There was the understanding that even if we lost, we could give it our best and put up a brave fight.
“Now, nobody knows if we’ll win or lose. Considering that, I think it is OK for us to set the aim of winning the World Cup.”
To some, that will sound fanciful. But take a step back and look at their recent results.
Since October last year, they’ve beaten Brazil, Ghana, Bolivia, Scotland, England and Iceland. Sure, some of those are better than others, and we can only read so much into friendlies, but you can also only beat who’s in front of you.
The victory over Brazil was their first against the five-time world champions, and their 1-0 success at Wembley Stadium made them the first Asian team to ever beat England.
Although such results were obviously surprises, it’s also worth noting how Japan were the first team to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, and they surged through their qualification campaign in ruthless fashion.
Their 51 goals (which does include three own goals but excludes the 3-0 forfeit victory over North Korea) in qualifying was 11 more than any other team in the AFC section. That’s more than double fellow qualifiers Saudi Arabia (22) from three fewer matches (15 to Saudi Arabia’s 18).
Japan were devastatingly efficient in front of goal, overperforming in relation to their expected goals by 20.9 and converting 21.1% of their 242 shots, second only to Kyrgyzstan (21.6% of 116 attempts) among teams to play at least 15 games.
Japan are, of course, one of the more reputable teams in Asia, so you would expect them to be a better side than most – if not all – others on the continent. But their goals output was an anomaly.
It reflected a seemingly deliberate move for the team to become more expansive.
This is notable because, although Japan’s high-profile scalps at the 2022 World Cup were exhilarating, they were hardly convincing. They also came either side of a shock 1-0 defeat to Costa Rica, who’d previously been thrashed 7-0 by Spain.
Moriyasu came in for plenty of stick.
Despite being allowed to control matters, Japan offered very little threat until the final few minutes of that defeat to Costa Rica. Most of the individuals who’d helped turn the Germany game on its head on MD1 after coming on still didn’t come into the starting XI, and the team looked laborious.
Costa Rica scored with their only shot on target; Japan managed three but only generated 0.88 xG. And yet, Moriyasu defiantly insisted he had “no regrets, to be honest”, adamant the result didn’t “mean what we’ve done was wrong”.
But then, reverting to a seemingly preferable ‘underdog’ status on MD3, they defeated Spain to win the group. Elimination at the hands of Croatia followed, and while you can rue a certain degree of misfortune in losing on penalties, in truth it was a poor game that Japan didn’t do enough to win against opposition that in no way excelled either.
In some respects, it was a missed opportunity, though that didn’t mean lessons weren’t learned.
“After Qatar, a lot of us started thinking that we’d like to play more proactive football and take the initiative out on the pitch,” captain
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