Group F at the 2026 FIFA World Cup sees Japan, Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia battle to make the next phase. Who will qualify for the knockout stage?
The latest edition of the FIFA World Cup is almost here. It takes place in Canada, Mexico and the United States of America between 11 June and 19 July.
Group F should be one of the more hotly-contested sections of the draw. Netherlands get the ball rolling against Japan on 14 June in Arlington, with Sweden facing Tunisia in Guadalupe the same day.
Can the Dutch finally win the trophy for the first time having come close on numerous occasions? We look at the Opta supercomputer’s World Cup predictions to see who in this group is likeliest to go all the way.
World Cup Group F Predictions
Netherlands are Group F favourites, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 48.2% chance of finishing first. Even if they fail to do that, their 88.2% chance of qualifying suggests they’ll advance without too much fuss. Japan (76.2%) and Sweden (62.6%) also have a strong likelihood of getting through to the knockout phase, with Tunisia (43.4%) the Group F underdogs.Netherlands have yet to win the World Cup, having finished runners-up in 1974, 1978 and 2010. However, by winning 54.5% of their matches at the tournament (with 30 victories from 55 games, shootouts excluded), only Brazil (66.7%) and Germany (60.7%) have a stronger win rate.
The Dutch have very strong recent form at the finals too. Excluding penalty shootouts, Netherlands have lost only one of their last 19 World Cup matches, winning 14. Not since 1994 have they lost a group-stage match either. You can see why they are expected to qualify.
Manager Ronald Koeman guided his nation to the semi-finals at Euro 2024. To improve on that, Netherlands will need their all-time top scorer Memphis Depay to deliver. As well as his 55 international goals, the 32-year-old is also the player with the most assists for the Netherlands since the 1978 World Cup (35).
Depay shared the creative burden in qualifying with Junya Ito (one and 10) and Mohamed Ben Romdhane (with four goals) and full-back
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