With the start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup close, we look at the Opta supercomputer’s Group A predictions for Mexico, South Africa, South Korea and Czechia. Who will qualify for the last 32?
The 23rd edition of the FIFA World Cup will get underway on 11 June when Mexico, who are co-hosting the tournament with Canada and the USA, face South Africa at the world-renowned Estadio Azteca. Mexico and South Africa will be joined in Group A by Czechia and South Korea.
Mexico will be confident of progression as co-hosts, but without an obvious standout team in the group, could that added pressure open up an opportunity for a lesser-fancied nation?
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s predictions to see how Group A could play out.
World Cup Group A Predictions
Co-hosts Mexico are favourites to progress to the knockout stages, doing so in 87.2% of pre-tournament simulations. South Korea are deemed the second most likely team to reach the round of 32, doing so in 70.1% of pre-tournament simulations, ahead of Czechia (64.2%). Even South Africa, as the lowest-ranked team in the group, progress in nearly half of our simulations (48.9%).A good omen for Mexico is that, although they are not solo hosts this time around, their two best performances at the World Cup came when they hosted the tournament in 1970 and 1986, reaching the quarter-finals on both occasions.
Although their chances of winning this year can be considered remote (0.9%), they made it to the quarter-finals in nearly a quarter of the pre-tournament simulations (23.5%).
To win it all, though? Well, let’s just say history is not on their side. Mexico hold the record for the most World Cup matches without winning the title, having contested 60 games without lifting the trophy.
As the supercomputer sims suggest, a more realistic aim may be to simply reach the knockout stages. They are favourites among the Group A quartet to do so, topping the group in 48.0% of simulations.
It’s a realistic aim for Javier Aguirre, too, who is back as Mexico manager for a third time. He has previously led them to the knockout stages at the 2002 and 2010 editions of this tournament. Among head coaches at the 2026 tournament, only Didier Deschamps (France) will have managed at more World Cups for the same national team.
South Korea were the only unbeaten team in the AFC qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup, and their strong qualifying record goes back a long way; they are making an 11th consecutive appearance at the World Cup, a run that stretches back to 1986. Only Brazil (23), Germany (19), Argentina (14) and Spain (13) are on a longer run of consecutive participations.
They are the team with the second-best chance at progressing to the knockout stages from Group A according to the supercomputer, doing so in 70.1% of simulations. Meanwhile, they have a 22.4% chance of progressing as group winners.
South Korea’s best performance to date came when they famously reached the semi-finals as co-hosts in 2002, but when not playing on home soil, they have never got past the last 16.
Indeed, they have the lowest win rate among teams that have played at least 30 matches at the World Cup (18.4%), winning just seven of their 38 games.
Czechia will feel like they have a divine right to be at the 2026 World Cup. After finishing second in their qualifying group behind Croatia, they had to beat both Republic of Ireland and Denmark on penalties in the play-offs for their place at this tournament.
Those were the first games managed by head coach Miroslav Koubek, who at 74 years old will be among the oldest managers at this summer’s edition.
Koubek’s mission will be to reach the knockout stages, a feat Czechia haven’t achieved since 1990, when they reached the quarter-finals as part of Czechoslovakia. Their chances of progressing sit at 64.2%, topping the group in 18.4% of simulations.
Their main weapon is
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