GREECE, N.Y. — After weeks of News10NBC’s reporting on rising lake levels and how local lakeshore communities are preparing, Lake Ontario has hit flood stage.
That’s according to the latest data from the International Joint Commission, a U.S.-Canadian partnership that tracks water levels in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River. The lake is forecasted to remain above its flood stage (247.3 feet) for at least the next week and a half.
So, does flood stage mean that lakeshore communities will see flooding? Currently, there’s no immediate risk of widespread flooding. However, low-lying areas, such as Edgemere Drive in Greece, should be wary of wind and wave patterns that can push water onshore. In early May, two Greece residents reported that their basements flooded along the lakeshore.
The rise and fall of water in Lake Ontario depends on weather patterns and the water bodies it connects with. Tony David, a member of the IJC’s Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board, said that watching lake levels requires constant refinement. Peak conditions can happen during this time of the year.
“The peak of Lake Ontario can happen well into the first week of June or the second week of June. So, I think we’re very close to observing the peak. And a lot of the major thresholds that produce record conditions have passed,” David said.
Is it possible to see flooding as severe as 2017 and 2019?
In 2017 and 2019, flooding along Lake Ontario caused millions of dollars in damage to homes and businesses in Greece and other areas. That wasn’t just because of high lake levels, but because of storms and wind coming from the north, creating large waves. David said it would take something drastic to see that kind of flooding again.
The board would take additional action if Lake Ontario reaches certain trigger levels, called Criterion H-14. When water levels reach those trigger points, the board can tell dam operators along the Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River basin to release more or less water.
If that happens, the board would have to notify the IJC of how it plans to return its outflow changes to where they were, as part of Plan 2014.
What is Plan 2014?
Plan 2014 is a U.S. and Canadian agreement to protect Lake Ontario from extreme water levels, restore wetlands, and protect communities from climate change.
The IJC would take action not just when water levels are too high, but also when they’re too low. The plan was created to replace a decades-old water management system and allow Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River to fluctuate more naturally.
News10NBC will continue to monitor water levels. In case of flooding, some towns have distributed sandbags, and Greece has water pumps on standby along Edgemere Drive. In Wayne County, the emergency management office has been flying drones along the shoreline to improve its flood-threat mapping.
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