The New York Knicks haven’t lost a game in nearly six weeks. The San Antonio Spurs just eliminated the team favored all season to win the NBA title. So who do our predictions have claiming the Larry O’Brien Trophy?
The New York Knicks are back in the NBA Finals for the first time in 27 years. The last time they were here, their opponent was a San Antonio Spurs team that was led by a former first overall pick in their age-22 season (Tim Duncan). Now, they are going up against … a Spurs team led by a former first overall pick in his age-22 season (Victor Wembanyama).
But who has the edge once the Finals start on Wednesday night in San Antonio? What are the key storylines to keep track of? What stats should we be monitoring? Here is the full preview for the 2026 NBA Finals.
Key NBA Finals Storylines to Watch
What we have here is a clash between the league’s second-best offense (the Knicks) and its best defense (the Spurs, per our TRACR metric).
Everything is going to start with Wembanyama. He is the best defensive player on the planet (first in D-DRIP), and his presence in the paint makes finishing around the rim nearly impossible. This postseason, Wembanyama ranks first in the difference between what opponents are expected to shoot on shots within six feet and what they are actually doing when he converts.
The Knicks have two ways they could go about countering Wembanyama. They could use five-out lineups with Karl-Anthony Towns at the five to space the floor and keep Wembanyama out of the paint. Or, they could replicate what the Oklahoma City Thunder did and use the bruising Mitchell Robinson (who is expected to play, despite having surgery on his broken pinky finger) to beat up on the lanky Frenchman.
In all likelihood, New York will deploy a blend of both of these tactics. However, one thing to monitor is how Josh Hart’s minutes look based on what philosophy the Knicks are going for. If they want to space Wembanyama out, playing Hart likely won’t work, as any benefits they get from Towns’ tremendous shooting prowess will be nullified by the Spurs’ ability to put their center on Hart. Look for the Knicks to lean more on Miles McBride (a career 37.4% 3-point shooter) and Landry Shamet (38.6%) in these lineup configurations.
When they choose to play a more physical blend of basketball, playing Hart and benefitting from his knack for generating offensive rebounds (third on the team in the per-game version of this stat during the regular season). This is because you can’t put a non-center on Robinson (he’s too big and strong for that).
Overall, the Knicks’ offense performed very well against the Spurs in the regular season. Two of the four highest single-game offensive ratings the Spurs surrendered this year came against the Knicks (one of which came in the NBA Cup Finals).
Still, Stephon Castle is coming off a series where he held the back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 45.5% shooting from the floor in the possessions he defended him (per NBA.com), which is 9.8% worse than his regular-season average. In the two games we have tracking data for, Castle held Jalen Brunson to 0-for-4 shooting from the floor in 29.1 partial possessions defending him. Castle will likely spend a majority of his minutes shadowing Brunson in this series, and if he can slow him down without the Spurs having to allocate additional bodies at the Southpaw, it could disrupt the Knicks’ entire rhythm.
On the flip side, how will this improved Knicks’ defense bottle up Wembanyama?
In a recent poll, OG Anunoby was named the No. 1 “Wemby Stopper” in the league right now. The data also seems to back up this assessment. Over the last three years, Wembanyama is just 9-for-22 (40.9% – 7.5% below his career average) on field goals where he is guarded by Anunoby.
However, putting Anunoby on Wembanyama opens up other issues. Who will Towns guard if he isn’t guarding Wembanyama? Julian Champagnie? But then who will Brunson guard? Also, if Anunoby is busy with Wembanyama, are Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and the team’s bench guards enough to handle the guard triumvirate of Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper?
Maybe the Knicks just remedy this by using Robinson to guard Wembanyama. But he is likely too slow to stay with him on the perimeter. Plus, this creates opportunities to intentionally foul the miserable free-throw shooter (30.2% on free throws this postseason). Given that his injured pinky is on his right hand, it seems unlikely that he’ll pull a Giannis Antetokounmpo in this series.
Key Stats To Monitor
Against the Thunder, the Spurs nabbed 15 more offensive rebounds over the course of their seven-game series. However, the general consensus around this matchup is that the Knicks are a much more physical opponent than the Thunder were thanks to the force of Robinson, Towns, Anunoby and Hart.
The Spurs were also able to outrebound the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves in their previous series, but this Knicks team has the chance to change that trend. And if they can, the Knicks have the offensive firepower to make the Spurs pay for giving them a second chance at scoring, making offensive rebounding arguably the ultimate swing factor in this series.
One weakness the Thunder magnified was how shallow this Spurs’ team is, especially with Fox and Harper dealing with some nagging lower-body issues. Oklahoma City’s bench outscored San Antonio by 132 points – an average of 18.9 points per game. No team has gotten more out of their bench this postseason than the Knicks, as they lead the playoffs in plus-minus (+5.4). Keep an eye on the contributions both these teams get from their benches.
Ultimately, depth wasn’t enough for the Thunder to overcome the Spurs. But when you couple that with the Knicks’ apparent physicality advantage, it may be too much for San Antonio to handle.
Regular-Season Matchups
The Knicks won two of the three meetings between these teams, but one of those games was in the NBA Cup Final. So, it did not count toward the team’s regular-season records.
Both of the Knicks’ victories came in convincing double-digit fashion, while their only loss was in a tightly contested game that was decided by a single possession.
NBA Finals Prediction
The Knicks are only the fifth team in NBA history to win eleven straight games in a single postseason run. Three of the four other teams that did it ended up winning the NBA championship (the only group that didn’t were the 1989 Los Angeles Lakers).
However, the Knicks’ competition in the first three rounds doesn’t match up with their predecessors, as they boast the lowest average opponent SRS of any of the five teams that won eleven straight playoff games (per Basketball Reference).
On paper, the Spurs are the superior team. They played in the tougher conference, won more regular season games, beat the defending champs, and have the best player in the series. This is evidenced by our prediction model, which gives the Spurs a 60.9% chance of winning the series.
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2026 NBA Finals Prediction: Will the Streaking Knicks or Giant-Slaying Spurs Win the NBA Title? Opta Analyst.
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