Let me just say at the very top that, no matter what happens tonight between the Cubs and Pirates, I beg you not to judge the Cubs’ offense on the basis of their production against Paul freaking Skenes. He’s one of the best young pitchers in recent memory, and he’s dominated MOST of the teams he’s faced in his career. The Cubs had a great night at the plate last night, and if Skenes overpowers them tonight, it doesn’t have to mean anything for tomorrow.
All that said, it would obviously be quite the boost to our spirits if the Cubs did find a way to follow up last night’s double-digit scoring with a surprisingly strong outing against Paul Skenes.
Can that happen?
Well, I’m still going to play the odds and bet that it doesn’t. I’ll just hope Colin Rea has a brilliant night, and the Cubs can scratch across just enough runs (or a bunch against the bullpen) to win.
But if you had to face Paul Skenes, maybe now is the best possible time? Maybe he’s in a little bit of a funk? For him, anyway?
Over his last two outings, against the Phillies and the Blue Jays, Skenes has thrown 10.0 innings and allowed 9 earned runs on 15 hits and 2 walks, with just 9 strikeouts. For him, that’s an absolute disaster of a two-start stretch, and maybe his command is ever so slightly off right now in a way that the Cubs could hope to exploit? I mean, this guy has NEVER allowed THREE runs in back-to-back outings before. Clearly the Phillies and Blue Jays were seeing something.
Pitching Ninja dug in what has happened with Skenes over the last two outings, and it might boil down to some predictability:
Batters were keying in on the fastball up, the offspeed stuff down, and they were also focusing on one half of the plate. It’s a pretty smart strategy against a guy who can execute so many nasty pitches, who isn’t going to walk you, and who is probably going to get his anyway. So just pick your pitch, pick your location, and give it a rip and hope you’re right.
Which brings me to the other half of the headline up there. What if, having struggled twice in a row, Paul Skenes and the Pirates were better able to detect what went wrong – more signal over two starts, less randomness – and he’ll make significant adjustments against the Cubs? What if it’s actually the worst possible time to face Skenes, because he’ll be as nasty as ever, but more unpredictable? And probably a little angry, too.
I’m not expecting a ton of production against Skenes in the end, and, like I said, that’s not a knock against the Cubs’ offense. He’s just a very, very special pitcher. Hope for a run or two – run into a homer, perhaps – and then try to win the game from there.
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