Donald Trump is a salesman trying to convince us that this used car is actually brand new. What he is trying to get is a deal that trades dollars for “dust,” his term for the enriched uranium held by Iran. Trump would give Iran billions of dollars by unfreezing Iranian assets in U.S.-linked banks and ending U.S. sanctions. In exchange, Iran would get rid of its stockpile of enriched uranium that it could enrich further to make the cores of nuclear bombs.
This is what the Obama negotiations accomplished in 2015. Iran took its then-eight tons of uranium and downblended it with natural uranium, which has less than 1 percent of the U-235 isotope needed for fission. That brought the uranium down to very low levels of enrichment, potentially usable for fuel but not for a rapid sprint to weapons-grade of 90 percent U-235.
In exchange, the United States released Iranian funds frozen in foreign banks by U.S. sanctions. Critics of the deal harshly criticized this it as shipping “pallets of dollars” to Iran. But this is precisely what Trump is proposing as part of his deal.
Trump could have gotten this deal without going to war. In late February, the Iranians agreed to get rid of their uranium stockpile. Plus, they agreed to suspend all enrichment for three to five years—something they were not willing to do in 2015.
But Trump got greedy. He listened to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and attacked. Trump thought there was no need to negotiate, he could overthrow the entire regime. He failed. Now, he is back at the table trying to get the same deal he could have gotten without the war.
Plus, if it actually includes a multi-year enrichment suspension, it would be a major barrier to Iran building a bomb. It would not secure an absolute end to the program, but it buys time to build on the agreement with other agreements that could further restrict the program and address other areas of concern, like Iran’s missile program.
It is the path that Trump may now take, while trying to convince everyone that it is a brand new deal.
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