A Very Promising Trend Is Emerging for Pete Crow-Armstrong ...Middle East

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It’s easy to look at the 94 wRC+ Pete Crow-Armstrong has posted so far this season and surmise that his issues from the end of 2025 have carried over to this season. But that’s just not the case. For one thing, PCA’s post-All-Star Break numbers from last season were WAY worse (72 wRC+). For another, PCA got off to a brutal start this season (first 68 PAs: 39 wRC+) but has been a lot better since April 15 (last 152 PAs: 118 wRC+).

But more importantly, and more to the point, if you’ve actually been watching his at-bats lately, you’ll notice a very different player up there in the box. Specifically, the chase that defined his first three seasons in the big leagues (41.3% out-of-zone swing rate, 6th worst in MLB) has started to come down.

Pete Crow-Armstrong – Still Developing

This season, as a whole, PCA has reduced his O-swing rate to 38.2%. Since the day he started turning things around (again, that’s April 14, with north of 150 PAs), it’s down to 34.5%. And in the month of May, it’s down to 29.4% … which is better than league average!

Check out the graph for this season to see for yourself:

Image via FanGraphs

That’s a gigantic, dramatic improvement.

Now, if you’d like to pump the brakes, you can point out that he hasn’t seen a similar INCREASE in his zone-swing rate, which has remained mostly steady this season (and down from 2025). But it’s still a very good place to start. Even though PCA has never actually carried particularly high strikeout rates, we all know he was chasing too often, and that results in weaker contact. It also reduces a player’s ability to walk.

Now that he’s swinging at fewer bad pitches, his walk rate has more than doubled this season, from a WELL below average 4.5% in 2025 to an above-average 9.1% rate here in 2026. That might help even more, now that he may be the new everyday leadoff hitter (versus righties, at least).

Likewise, his average exit velocity this season is up nearly 2 full MPH, and his hard-hit rate has jumped up to 48.2%. As you might expect, the numbers since April 14 and May 1 are equally solid/representative of the better stretch he had after a cold start.

No, Pete Crow-Armstrong is not hitting as well as he did in the first half of 2025, but I do think it’s fair to remember that he’s still only 24 years old and developing. And this latest development of spitting on more pitches out of the zone could have the compounding effect over time of forcing pitchers into the zone more often, allowing him to start tapping back into that power.

Indeed, that appears to already be happening.

We’ll see exactly where he ends up when all is said and done, but the idea that he “can’t hit” or “strikes out way too much” is just patently false. Even when he WAS chasing more, he wasn’t striking out much, and this year, he’s inching closer to league average for the full season and has been solidly above average for over 150 PAs straight.

You just need to remember that PCA is simply not a finished product.

If, for now, he can deliver league-average+ offensive numbers (with his defense), he’s plenty valuable. If he can be closer to the 120 wRC+ guy he has been for MOST of this season, then he’s an All-Star type. And it seems to be trending in that direction, especially if he keeps laying off the junk.

Anything above that – like we say in the first half of 2025, the MVP stuff – is gravy. Maybe he has some of that left in the tank, but he doesn’t need to be that guy to be great. The development is happening right before our eyes. Don’t lose the forest for the trees, and ignore all of his many misinformed haters. They are way off.

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