Donald Trump has said that a peace deal with Iran that would reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz “has been largely negotiated” after calls with a Pakistani mediator, Gulf allies and Israel.
The President wrote on Truth Social on Saturday that “final aspects and details” of the memorandum of understanding are “currently being discussed and will be announced shortly”.
According to a US official speaking to Axios, the agreement includes a 60 day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, Iran would be able to freely sell oil and talks would be held on restricting Iran’s nuclear program.
However, Iran appear to be less positive about the progress of the negotiations, with Esmaeil Baghaei, a foreign ministry spokesman, saying: “The agreement is both very far and very close.”
Key roadblocks could still block a concrete resolution, with experts singling out Israel as the most likely reason for the potential failure of talks. On Saturday, Trump once again threatened to “blow [Iran] to kingdom come” if talks fail.
The agreement so far
On Saturday, Trump said he had wrapped up a “very good call” with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain, and separately with Israel.
The ongoing talks will look to secure a 60 day ceasefire, during which negotiators would discuss the details of a permanent settlement. As well as the ceasefire, Iran would agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with no tolls. In exchange, the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell its oil freely.
Iran reportedly wanted its funds to be unfrozen immediately and permanent sanctions relief, but US negotiators said that would only happen if concessions were made. Other issues yet to be agreed are Iran’s nuclear weapons programme and an end to the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon.
Officials from various Gulf nations have played a part in US-Iran talks (Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images)Professor HA Hellyer, a Middle East specialist at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “We are closer to any diplomatic process resulting in a deal than we’ve been since this war began. If it works out, I think what we’re about to see an agreement that essentially takes war off the table for the near to medium term.”
“Neither side wants to go back to war so they’re trying to find that Venn diagram where they can both claim that they got something,” Hellyer added.
However, uncertainties have been raised about what the deal could mean for the Middle East and US partners in the region. Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator from South Carolina, said that the agreement effectively acknowledged Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, shifting “the balance of power in the region” and causing a “nightmare for Israel”.
Disruption to the negotiating process
Not everyone would welcome a deal. “The biggest threat to this process is Israel under [Benjamin] Netanyahu,” Andreas Krieg, a fellow at the institute of Middle Eastern Studies, told The i Paper.
Netanyahu “entire strategic doctrine has been built around the claim that Iran cannot be managed, cannot be trusted, and must be confronted militarily until its nuclear and regional capabilities are dismantled,” he added.
Krieg said that anything that pushes an agreement on Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme down the road would present an existential threat to Netanyahu, who has “strong incentives to portray any interim framework as a dangerous concession, to pressure Washington over uranium enrichment, and to keep the Lebanon front alive.”
Meanwhile, he said that Iran is unlikely to accept anything “that looks like surrendering its nuclear sovereignty under military pressure”.
Opening up the waters
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the more contentious issues, after Iran blockaded it early in the conflict, bottling up much of the world’s oil and gas.
Andreas Krieg, a fellow at the institute of Middle Eastern Studies, said that if Iran can secure “even a symbolic management role [over the Strait of Hormuz], it will see that as a victory” (Photo: Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)“Iran now sees the strait as a strategic asset, not just a crisis lever,” Krieg said. “That is a direct challenge to the US, Gulf and international position that Hormuz must remain open without tolls.”
He added: “If Iran is allowed to keep even a symbolic management role, it will see that as a victory. Gulf states will see it as coercion being legitimised.”
The deal also calls for a ceasefire in Lebanon which “can work on paper, but only if both sides believe there is an enforcement mechanism,” Krieg said.
The ongoing Israeli-Hezbollah war in Lebanon could present a problem for US and Iranian negotiators (Photo: Rabih Daher/AFP/Getty Images)Despite the hurdles and uncertainty, the world has reacted positively to the developments, especially the Gulf. “I think the entirety of the region is in favour of the talks, with the exception of the Israelis,” said Hellyer.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “I welcome the progress towards an agreement between the US and Iran.” He added that “the UK would work with allies to “seize this moment” to help achieve a long-term solution in the Middle East.
Another shooting near the White House
Saturday was also a busy day for Trump closer to home, with another shooting incident near the White House, where he was in residence.
A man who opened fire at a checkpoint was shot dead by Secret Service officers. A law enforcement official described the man as an emotionally disturbed individual who opened fire at a checkpoint near 17th Street and Pennsylvania Avenue.
A bystander was hit, though it remains unclear whether the shot came from the gunman or officers returning fire.
A law enforcement official stands near the scene, after the shooting incident near the White House (Photo: Kylie Cooper/ReutersCourt records show the man, identified as 21-year-old Nasire Best, had previously told police he was “Jesus Christ”.
The incident came less than a month after a gunman tried to storm the White House correspondence dinner that Trump and several members of his cabinet were attending.
This was the third alleged attempt on Trump’s life in recent years.
After the incident, Trump thanked law enforcement and his Secret Service, adding that the gunman “had a violent history and possible obsession with our Country’s most cherished structure”.
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