The climax of the European clay swing is here, with the second Grand Slam of the season upon us. Roland Garros begins on Sunday 24 May and after last year’s edition, the storylines are obvious.
Last season saw both the ATP and WTA #1s lose in respective Singles finals for the first time in the event’s history. Both Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka are looking to redeem after suffering defeat, in instant classics, on the second weekend in 2025.
For Sinner, tennis immortality also is on the line, with the potential to become the first player to complete both the Career Grand Slam and Career Golden Masters before the age of 25.
After claiming the Sunshine Double, the switch to clay has proved a little trickier for Sabalenka, meanwhile, with respective defeats to Hailey Baptiste and Sorana Cirstea from a set up in Madrid and Rome.
The Opta supercomputer, with this all in mind, tells the tale of two main draws…
Who Will Win Roland Garros in 2026?
Jannik Sinner is the clear favourite (20.44%) is to claim a maiden Roland Garros title. Aryna Sabalenka (7.74%) is also the favourite in a much more open Women’s Singles draw. The path for giant-killing runs are laid out for both Janice Tjen and Pablo Llamas Ruiz.Men’s Singles Predictions
It probably should not come as a surprise to anyone, but especially in the absence of defending champion Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner is the clear favourite to claim a maiden Men’s Singles title at Roland Garros per the Opta Supercomputer. The current ATP #1 is given a 20.44% likelihood to defend his crown.
His adjusted forehand in the early season suggested Roland Garros has been the primary goal this season, and the preparation has been seemingly ideal – the Italian became first player to win the first five ATP Masters 1000 events of the season, and just the second to sweep the clay events in a season after Rafael Nadal (2010).
A 29-match winning streak underlines his current dominance over the rest of the ATP Tour, but the historical precedent isn’t exactly encouraging with that streak in mind. Only two players in the Open Era have come into Roland Garros with a longer winning streak at ATP level – Novak Djokovic (39 in 2011) and John McEnroe (36 in 1984).
Both failed to secure tournament victory at Roland Garros that season – Djokovic eventually lost to Roger Federer in four sets in the semi-final, and McEnroe from two sets up to Ivan Lendl in the final.
Speaking of Djokovic, despite the early exit to Dino Prizmic in Rome, the Opta supercomputer still puts him between Sinner and the rest, placing the 38-year-old as second-favourite at 11.97%.
Reflecting the gap in level between Sinner to Djokovic and Alcaraz, then the rest of the ATP Tour at Grand Slam events in recent times, Alexander Bublik (5.16%) is the third-favourite. Bublik is then followed by current ATP #3, Alexander Zverev (3.68%).
Meanwhile, in just his third Grand Slam main draw, the Opta supercomputer has given qualifier Pablo Llamas Ruiz a 13.91% chance of reaching the quarter-final. This surpasses three of the top 10 seeds in the Men’s Singles draw in Ben Shelton (13.22%), Flavio Cobolli (6.86%) and the high seed in Llamas Ruiz’s quarter of the draw, Taylor Fritz (12.63%).
Ultimately, it’s Jannik Sinner and daylight according to our model for the Men’s Singles. And given a 27.51% chance of reaching the final, the path to triumph for anyone else has Sinner in the way.
Women’s Singles Predictions
In stark contrast to the Men’s Singles draw, meanwhile, the Women’s Singles title is up for grabs. Emblematic of the ultra-competitive state of the WTA Tour at the moment, little is separating the top seeds according to the Opta supercomputer.
Current WTA #1 and last year’s losing finalist, Aryna Sabalenka, is a much slimmer favourite in comparison to Sinner at 7.74%. The woman who defeated Sabalenka in this year’s Australian Open final, Elena Rybakina, isn’t far behind in figurative or probabilistic terms at 6.88%.
Defending champion and Rome finalist Coco Gauff (5.95%) sits just behind the top two seeds per our model and despite a recent plateau against the elite of the WTA Tour in recent times, Iga Swiatek (4.05%) is fourth-placed. However, the less-established name among the favourites at the top is current WTA #41, Janice Tjen, who is placed as fifth-favourite at 3.86%.
Within Sabalenka’s section of the draw, the Indonesian is deemed most likely to face the top seed in the round of 16 at 30.77%. Yet, among the thousands of simulations of this year’s draw, Tjen stands out as the player who can potentially cause the biggest shock.
In Rybakina and Swiatek’s half of the draw, Rome champion Elina Svitolina has been given a 1.33% chance of claiming a maiden Grand Slam title, despite defeating the two en route to tournament victory at the Foro Italico earlier this month.
However, the delta of 6.47% between Sabalenka and the 20th-placed in probability (Marie Bouzkova, 1.27%) is reflective of just how open the Women’s Singles draw is, and the WTA Tour at present.
How Our Tournament Simulator Works
Our tournament projection model simulates the outcome of the tournament 10,000 times, estimating every player’s likelihood to get through each round of the draw based on their skill strength, where they are in the draw and the skill of the potential opponents they could face.
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French Open Predictions: Who Will Win at Roland Garros in 2026? Opta Analyst.
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