Oil markets could enter a “red zone” by August, raising the risk of a “real, physical shortage” of fuel within weeks, the International Energy Agency’s executive director Fatih Birol has warned.
For now, Britain is not running out of fuel – at least, that is the official line.
Ministers say supplies are “diverse and resilient” and have urged drivers to carry on as normal despite the war in Iran pushing prices higher.
But behind the reassurance sits a detailed contingency plan spelling out how fuel could be rationed if supplies tightened, from limits at the pump to priority access for essential services.
So how real is the risk in the UK – and what would happen if supplies tighten?
What is the UK’s fuel emergency plan?
At the centre of the system is the National Emergency Plan for Fuel (NEP-F), a long‑standing government blueprint for dealing with severe disruptions.
The plan gives ministers the ability to intervene directly in supply and demand, including using legal powers under the Energy Act 1976 to control fuel distribution, including rationing if necessary.
Its aim is to keep the country running during a crisis and crucially prioritises essential services while trying to avoid panic buying and shortages.
What would rationing look like?
If the Government decided supplies were at risk, the measures would likely be phased in — starting with light‑touch restrictions before moving to stricter controls.
Limits at the pump
Drivers could face:
Caps on how much fuel can be bought per visit Possible cash limits — for example around £30 per transaction Reduced opening hours at petrol stations In extreme cases, set days when drivers are allowed to fill upOfficials describe this as a “maximum purchase scheme” designed to prevent panic buying and stretch supplies.
Priority users first
Fuel would be directed away from the general public and towards essential sectors:
Emergency services Utilities such as energy and water Public transport Freight and logistics Private motoristsSome forecourts could even be turned into dedicated sites for emergency and key workers only.
Driving restrictions
Rationing would likely be combined with wider steps to reduce fuel use, such as:
Lower national speed limits Encouraging working from home Promoting public transport and car‑sharingThese recommendations mirror those outlined by the International Energy Agency, which says governments should be ready to curb demand during major oil disruptions.
Why is this being discussed now?
The renewed focus on rationing is being driven by the global oil shock linked to the Iran conflict.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping route carrying about a fifth of the world’s oil, continues to raise concerns about supply shortages and driving up prices.
The International Energy Agency has described the current situation as the largest disruption in the history of global oil markets, warning governments to prepare emergency responses.
Some experts believe the impact could be felt quickly. Nick Butler, a former BP strategist, has warned there could be “a physical fuel shortage within weeks” if the disruption continues.
What is the Government saying?
The warnings come as the Government faces mounting pressure to rethink its stance on North Sea oil and gas.
Industry groups, including North Sea producers, and analysts such as former BP strategist Nick Butler, have warned the UK must prepare for supply shocks, as industry figures suggest domestic production could help improve resilience.
Ministers had been expected to approve a new North Sea gas field, the first in nearly a decade, but remain committed to a ban on new drilling licences.
Critics, including North Sea producers and industry groups, warn the UK is more exposed to future supply crises.
The bottom line
Britain is not about to introduce fuel rationing.
But detailed plans already exist, setting out how much fuel people could buy, who would be prioritised and how everyday driving might be restricted.
For now, those plans remain on the shelf.
Whether they stay there depends largely on how long the global oil shock lasts and how far it spreads.
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