As the Ukraine-Russia war enters the most intense period of the year between May and September, when the skies clear and the ground firms up, the Ukrainian army is in better shape than at any time over the past two and a half years.
The main reason is the combined evolution of robotics and tactics by the army and defence companies through a quick feedback-improvement loop.
The current round of robotics evolution is aimed to address the pillars of Russian military strategy in 2025; infiltration tactics of dispersed and dismounted infantry, saturation of the battlefield with reconnaissance and strike drones, and interdiction of medical support and logistics to disrupt supply lines to Ukraine’s fighters at the front.
Along with countering the Russian battlefield strategy, Ukraine is aiming to shape the battlefield with a range of in-depth strikes.
This year, Ukraine aims to produce more than seven million drones of different types, up from four million in 2025. As the supply increases, Ukrainian forward units are prioritising detection and destruction of Russian infiltrators seeking to bypass their positions.
This has contributed to heavy Russian losses that are – for the first time in more than two years – exceeding the Kremlin’s ability to replace them. Russia lost 156,700 casualties between last December and April and recruited 148,400 in that time, according to Ukrainian figures.
Russia’s invasion force still exceeds 700,000 men, but this marks a stagnation of manpower that deprives Moscow of its major advantage in 2024-5 – the ability to pin down Ukrainian forces while pushing forwards in several locations along the 800-mile front.
However, Ukraine’s unmanned air defences continue to evolve and make an impact. In the first four months of 2026, the military claims to have produced twice as many interceptor drones such as the Sting and P1SUN as in the whole of 2025.
These are aimed at enemy strike drones such as the Iran-inspired Shahed as well as reconnaissance models such as the Zala and Orlan-10. In March, Ukraine claimed to have destroyed 33,000 Russian drones. In April, the figure rose to almost 60,000.
About 10 per cent of those interceptions were achieved by drones supplied by Come Back Alive, a non-profit group I lead that supports the military.
An unmanned ground vehicle covered in camouflage moves along a road under an anti-drone net in Donetsk (Photo: Zoriana Stelmakh/Global Images/Getty)Improved air defence both protects critical infrastructure and disrupts the Russian battlefield kill chain, such as the interdiction tactics of Russia’s Rubicon drone unit.
Unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are also helping to tip the balance in Ukraine’s favour. While risking people and manned vehicles at the front is too dangerous under drone-saturated skies, emerging ground drones make logistics and medical support possible with manageable risks.
Ukraine plans to procure 50,000 such systems in 2026. In the first quarter of this year, they have already performed 24,500 support missions, and the number of units that use the platforms reached 167 by the end of March. By some estimates, UGVs can free up a third of the manpower that would have otherwise been required for a supply mission.
Defence forces have also made a huge leap forward in the so-called middle strike campaign, covering a range 20 to 300km from ground zero to the rear of Russian force groupings. In the year to March, Ukraine achieved 365 proven strikes within this category, using Starlink communications to fly below radar detection and correct trajectories mid-flight.
The targets have included Russian surface-to-air missile complexes and radars, electronic warfare systems, warehouses and headquarters, and train carriages carrying and fuel. These strikes undermine Russia’s ability to sustain pressure over the frontline, and create flight corridors for Ukraine’s strategic strike campaign.
For the first time in more than four years of war, the Ukrainian military has the tools to target the full depth of enemy forces having previously been constrained by issues of range, as with GMRLS rockets, or quantity, as with ATACMS or Storm Shadow missiles, of weapons supplied by western allies.
Furthermore, it is now possible to say that Ukraine finally managed to turn the size of the world’s largest country against it with a sustained campaign of long range strikes.
In March, Ukraine launched more one-way attack drones against Russia than vice versa. Recent attacks have focused on oil production, processing and exports along with military-industrial targets.
Russian firefighters outside Tuapse oil refinery after a Ukrainian drone strike (Photo: Telegram)Ukraine is using the natural advantage of the attacker while the other side never knows the target of the next attack, as well as the cumulative strain imposed on air defense systems.
The goal of the long-range strike campaign is not only to undermine Russia’s war economy but to present dilemmas for their leadership in having to choose what types of targets to defend, or how to divide limited assets proportionate to the wider goals of the war.
The success of this was seen in March with the admission by Russia’s Security Council chief Sergei Shoigu that Moscow cannot guarantee security in the European part of the country against Ukrainian drone attacks.
To be honest, these developments are more a result of disparate technologies and tactics maturing in parallel than a consequence of coherent state policy.
But the ability of a messy democracy to deliver despite its limitations is a counter to the idea that autocracies are better suited to a long war.
Ukraine’s leap forward in robotics technology does not solve all of its problems. Manpower and air defences against ballistic missiles remain major issues. But it has put the military in its best position for years.
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