Eliminating USAID—which provided food, medical care, clean water, and more to over 60 countries around the world—could lead to 14 million additional deaths by 2030, according to a 2025 study in the Lancet. Now, a new paper in Science is pointing to another knock-on effect: a rise in violent conflict across the regions and communities the organization once served.
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The results were striking. On the whole, there was a 6.5% increase in the probability of conflict after aid was halted across the 870 regions, compared to other parts of the world with similar characteristics but that receive no aid. Protests and riots increased by 10%, incidents of armed fighting rose by 6.9%, and battle-related fatalities grew 9.3%. The uptick in violence began almost immediately after the aid stopped and remained elevated for months. There was, says Wright, “a persistent change in the risk ecosystem.”
Stopping USAID comes at a cost to the U.S., too, Wright says. While the U.S. alienates former global partners by stopping the program, China is attracting new friends and allies with its Belt and Road Initiative, building infrastructure in beneficiary nations, he points out. “There is a reputational issue,” says Wright. “We’re not the only superpower trying to win favor. Once you shut down an organization like USAID, this creates a persistent concern about uncertainty in contracts. Shutting down USAID is thought of as an action taken in bad faith that would prevent the U.S. from fully re-engaging with all of the NGOs that were their partners.”
A rise in instability abroad also creates a national-security risk for the U.S., Wright adds. Yemen—once a major USAID recipient, with $768 million worth of aid flowing into the country in 2024—is also home to the Houthis, an Iran-backed militant group that controls much of the country’s north and has been designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. As USAID funding disappears, support for the rebels is only likely to grow, he says. “Iran can continue to finance rebellions like the Houthis,” says Wright. “These second- and third-order effects might be even more consequential to the U.S. than the direct effects.”
“You can’t undo what DOGE has created,” says Wright. “It’s not as straightforward as simply turning the lights back on.”
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