With Saturday’s FA Cup final on the horizon, we pick out seven aspects that could prove crucial ahead of Chelsea vs Manchester City at Wembley.
All eyes turn to Wembley Stadium on Saturday as English football comes to a standstill for the FA Cup final between Chelsea and Manchester City.This is the 10th successive FA Cup final to feature one or the other, with Man City creating history by reaching the final for the fourth season in a row. They lost against Crystal Palace last term, but their recent record is much stronger than Chelsea’s, who have lost in each of their last three FA Cup final appearances.
A win for City would see them draw level with Chelsea on eight FA Cup wins, with only Arsenal (14) and Manchester United (13) winning more.
Here, we’ve outlined seven subplots that may impact whether the FA Cup trophy stays in London or heads back to Manchester on Saturday.
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FA CupChelsea vs Man City: Opta Supercomputer FA Cup Final Prediction
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When the teams come out of the tunnel at Wembley on Saturday, it’ll be 1,813 days since Chelsea last beat Manchester City – just two weeks shy of five years.
Since being defeated in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final, City haven’t lost any of their 13 meetings with Chelsea in any competition (W10 D3), their longest ever unbeaten run against them. The aggregate scoreline over these 13 games is 25-7 in City’s favour.
For Chelsea, their 13-game winless run in meetings with City is their longest against any opponent since going 17 without a victory against Arsenal between January 1999 and March 2004.
A lack of continuity appears not to have helped the Blues. Since Pep Guardiola arrived at City in the summer of 2016, Chelsea have faced the Spaniard’s side on 27 occasions in all competitions and had nine different managers in their dugout: Thomas Tuchel (5), Antonio Conte (4), Maurizio Sarri (4), Frank Lampard (4), Mauricio Pochettino (3), Graham Potter (3), Enzo Maresca (2), Liam Rosenior (1) and Calum McFarlane (1).
Domestic Cup Double on the Horizon for City
City could win both major English domestic cup competitions this season. It would be the sixth time a team has done so after Arsenal in 1992-93, Liverpool in 2000-01 and 2021-22, Chelsea in 2006-07, and City themselves in 2018-19.
City have won 16 domestic (FA/League Cup) trophies and 44% of them have come under Guardiola, winning the League Cup five times and FA Cup twice.
This season, they have won all 11 games across both competitions, scoring 35 goals and conceding just five. City could become the first side ever to win 100% of their games across both competitions in one season; the current best win ratio is by Leeds United in 1967-68, who won all their League Cup games but were beaten in the FA Cup semi-finals to give them a 92%-win record.
Only four teams have won 12 games combined across the two competitions in a season – Spurs in 1981-82 (15 games), Man Utd in 1982-83 (16 games) and 1993-94 (16 games), and Arsenal in 1992-93 (17 games).
Since Guardiola arrived in 2016-17, City are top for games, wins, goals and clean sheets across both the FA and League Cup… in second for each are Chelsea.
Chelsea’s Dreadful Recent Form
By their standards, Chelsea head into this FA Cup final in a woeful run of form. They’ve won just two of their last 11 competitive games, with those victories coming in the FA Cup over League One side Port Vale and Leeds United.
No team has gone into an FA Cup final having won as few of their previous 11 competitive games since Newcastle United in 1998-99 (also two wins). Newcastle lost that final 2-0 to Manchester United.
In fact, since the start of March, no team in Europe’s big five leagues have lost more matches in all competitions than Chelsea (9).
Their total number of competitive defeats in 2026 stands at 12, just three fewer than in the whole of 2025 (15) and as many as in 2024 and 2022 (both 12). In the Premier League era, only in 1993 (50%) and 2023 (44%) have they lost a greater proportion of their competitive games than in 2026 so far (43%).
Toothless Domestic Finals a Concern for Chelsea
If their recent form wasn’t enough to worry Chelsea fans, their record in domestic cup finals over the last few years might increase tension ahead of Saturday.
Chelsea have failed to score in each of their last four FA Cup and League Cup finals, making them the only team to ever go four finals in a row across those competitions without netting.
They’ve had 53 shots and 18 shots on target without scoring in those four finals and, since Christian Pulisic scored against Arsenal in the 2020 FA Cup final, they are 60 shots without scoring in domestic cup finals.
In their last six (including the 2019 League Cup final), they’ve converted just one of 69 shots (1.4%).
Of course, this terrible record in front of goal only applies to domestic cup finals for Chelsea. They have proved that they can perform in big games, and they undoubtedly have players who can step up in such matches.
Their last two final appearances have come in continental competition, comfortably defeating reigning Champions League holders Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 in the FIFA Club World Cup back in July, two months after thrashing Real Betis 4-1 in the UEFA Conference League final.
Perfect Time for Palmer to Remind Everyone of His Talent
It’s been a difficult season for Erling Haaland has 161 goals for Manchester City but none of them have been scored in a cup final. Including the Community Shield and UEFA Super Cup, that’s nine appearances in which he’s attempted 15 shots totalling 3.06 xG and still failed to score.
His last goal in a final was for Borussia Dortmund against RB Leipzig in May 2021 in the German DFB-Pokal, when he scored twice.
At Wembley, the Norwegian has played eight games (only playing more at the Etihad) but never scored. It’s the only stadium he’s played at more more than twice for City without scoring.
Guardiola Among the FA Cup Greats
Manchester City are the first team to play in four consecutive FA Cup finals, beating Man Utd in 2023 before losing to them in 2024 and then to Crystal Palace in 2025. Guardiola has been in charge for all four of those final appearances.
Last season’s defeat to Crystal Palace in the final prevented him from becoming just the eighth different manager to lift the FA Cup trophy on at least three occasions, but he has the chance to add his name to the list on 16 May against Chelsea.
If City do win on Saturday, Guardiola would become only the second manager to win both major English domestic competitions at least three times after Alex Ferguson (5 x FA Cup, 4 x League Cup).
His overall record in the FA Cup is incredible, winning 45 of his 53 games. That gives him a win ratio of 85%, better than any manager to take charge of 10+ games in the competition’s history. With a minimum of 50 games, it’s a full 18 percentage points better than anyone else – both Arsène Wenger and Ferguson won 67% of their FA Cup matches.
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Chelsea vs Man City: Seven Key Subplots That Could Decide the FA Cup Final Opta Analyst.
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