The top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of their party affiliation, will advance to the general election in November. And the race for those two spots looks very different now than it did just a month ago.
Read More: Where the California Governor Race Stands After Swalwell’s Exit
Two Republicans are still in the race as well, a fact that has fueled lingering concerns among Democrats that the party could end up being shut out of the general election if Californians split the vote between the more numerous Democratic candidates.
Here’s what to know about where things stand.
The latest poll found that Becerra was closely followed by Steyer and Republican candidate Steve Hilton, each of whom was backed by 17% of respondents. But that 2-point difference is within the poll’s margin of error, political scientists note, so it doesn’t mean that Becerra has a clear lead over Steyer and Hilton.
Conroy says that results may vary poll to poll, noting that some surveys show Steyer polling slightly ahead of Becerra. But she says that recent polls do indicate that Becerra has gained ground in the race, and that he and Steyer are the most popular Democrats in the field at this point, while Hilton, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump and previously served as a political strategist for former British Prime MInister David Cameron, is the leading Republican candidate.
Eric Schickler, a professor of political science at the University of California, Berkeley, says that part of the reason why Becerra has risen in the polls could be “just really good timing”: Becerra spent a lot of funds on an ad blitz that happened to come out right before the Swalwell scandal, which seems to have drawn a lot of attention to his campaign.
“There’s always been just this large mass of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters who have not felt like any one particular candidate stuck out, but they also wanted to make sure to elect a Democratic governor, and so there’s been this bulk of undecided and movable voters,” Schickler says. “Becerra ended up being well-positioned to pick up a good chunk of those voters. But again, so far, he hasn’t consolidated enough support that you could say he’s a clear favorite.”
And many voters are still unsure of who they’ll vote for; the Emerson poll found that 12% of respondents were still undecided. It’s not unusual for that many voters to not know who they’re going to vote for leading up to a primary race, according to Conroy, and Grose says it makes sense given the number of candidates in the race.
Could the Republican candidates shut out the Democrats?
But experts say they think it’s unlikely that California, a Democratic stronghold, will have two Republicans on the ballot in November.
Support for Bianco has fallen over the past month; in April, the Emerson poll found that he had the backing of 14% of respondents, whereas the most recent poll found that he only had the backing of 11%.
But Conroy says that strategy could help the Democratic party; if voters are waiting to mail their ballots to see who has the most support in the polls, that could mean that fewer ballots would go toward candidates who would “water down” the vote, she says.
Schickler says the strategy underscores the fear among Democrats that Hilton and Bianco could advance to the general election, though he thinks it’s likely that there will be at least one Democratic candidate on the ballot in November.
“It’s not a great situation when voters are basically in a position where they’re waiting for the last minute to see how the polls look,” Schickler says. “On the other hand, it’s understandable in this situation.”
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