“Oi, Wes Streeting. Come and ‘ave a go if you think you’re ‘ard enough,” knight of the realm Sir Keir Starmer definitely did not say at the start of his high-stakes Cabinet meeting.
The Prime Minister’s style is less Peggy Mitchell ordering a drunk out of her pub, more technocratic barrister. But the meaning was the same. Starmer has suspected Streeting has been plotting against him for months. The Health Secretary insists he has been clear with the Prime Minister he is ready for a leadership contest should one take place. But he has also been adamant that he would not be the prime mover to trigger one, perhaps fearing it would spike his leadership chances.
Against the backdrop of calls to quit Starmer took refuge in the Labour Party rulebook, which dictates 81 Labour MPs have to back a specific replacement to trigger a contest. He was exploiting the divisions in the party to cling on, daring Streeting to challenge him or resign. Unlike the Conservatives, there is no mechanism for triggering a no-confidence vote; instead a challenger must go public and collect the requisite signatures. “The Labour Party has a process for challenging a leader and that has not been triggered,” Starmer told his colleagues.
There is no consensus about getting rid of Starmer for fear of who comes next. Some Labour MPs want to slow down a leadership contest because they support Andy Burnham and need to buy him time to return to Parliament. Others want the Prime Minister out now because they back Streeting and think a protracted contest will see his support slip away.
However long Starmer clings on by his fingernails in No 10, Labour is now divided along two sharp lines: Streeting or Burnham. Right or left. Fast or slow contest.
Cabinet ministers are now defining themselves for the future direction of the party by letting it be known Starmer should instruct Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee to let Burnham stand before his term as Mayor of Greater Manchester is up. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Deputy Labour Leader Lucy Powell and Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy all fall into that camp.
Starmer read out a statement at Cabinet saying he was digging in, and said he would speak to individuals afterwards. At the meeting Streeting joined in the discussion about Iran. Afterwards Starmer refused to see him and other ministers who wanted a word. Not a Mexican stand-off, but a very British passive-aggressive one. Later, a planned meeting between Starmer and union leaders was also cancelled. Perhaps he didn’t want to hear what they had to say.
Outside in Downing Street reporters sneezed as the plane trees shed a barrage of pollen. In the distance there was a wall of noise as protesters shouted on Whitehall. Starmer’s supporters put up a brave front. After Cabinet four senior loyalists – Pat McFadden, Liz Kendall, Steve Reed and Peter Kyle – all took the unusual step of talking to reporters in Downing Street on their way out. Streeting stalked out without a word. Shabana Mahmood, who last night told Starmer to set a timetable, exited via the back door.
In the background backbenchers started collecting names of supporters who don’t want a contest. But even as the loyalists rallied, the steady ticker of statements urging Starmer to go rose higher. And then the ministerial resignations started. There are probably enough keen beans to fill these posts, but it was not a great look by any stretch.
By late afternoon both sides were pretty evenly matched: 100 or so saying Starmer should go, 100 or so saying he should stay. However, it appeared unsustainable. “You can’t run a government unless you have the wide support of your party,” as one rebel Labour MP pointed out.
Starmer appears to genuinely believe staying in post is the best thing for the country amid sticky inflation and a foreign war driving up oil prices. You only have to look at the what the bond market did early this morning to see he may have a point, as the cost of government borrowing hit its highest level in nearly three decades amid the crisis engulfing the Prime Minister. It only dipped again after Starmer’s statement to Cabinet stressing he’s clinging on.
Traders correctly worry a new Labour leader would be more left-leaning than Starmer and loosen the fiscal rules. They’re not wrong to be concerned. Only this morning, with extraordinary timing, a caucus of more than 100 lawmakers from the soft-left Tribune Group called for a “new economic framework” with less “caution” on fiscal policy.
Burnham was seen arriving at Euston station from Manchester as Cabinet broke up, sparking a Westminster manhunt to smoke out his intentions. The Mayor has so far stayed silent since the local election results plunged Starmer’s leadership into crisis. As confidence ebbs away from former deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, Burnham’s star is in the left-wing ascendancy.
But there are Cabinet ministers who warned Burnham is not the prince-over-the-water his supporters would have you believe. The bond markets will still be there even if he does make his triumphal return to Westminster and is crowned the next Labour leader.
“I don’t see an easier, straightforward route back for Andy Burnham, or that Andy Burnham alone is going to solve all of our problems. No one person is going to solve the big political malaise and the huge challenges the country is facing and the threat of Reform,” a Cabinet minister told The i Paper.
It’s coming up to decision time. Those with longer memories pointed out Labour’s history is littered with the bodies of those who floundered and missed their moment. Roy Jenkins didn’t challenge Harold Wilson and David Miliband didn’t challenge Gordon Brown.
After Cabinet, Streeting left Downing Street as grim faced as he’d come in. He had a serious decision to make: to challenge Starmer or not. His allies were urging him to make a statement, to resign, to call Starmer’s bluff in return. To kick Peggy Mitchell out of her own pub.
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