Usually, when Donald Trump makes a weekend social media announcement about the state of his war, he tries to claim to have good news. The President claims a deal is imminent, or that ships are about to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and global markets celebrate the news.
This Sunday was different. After days of reports that a peace deal of some form between the US and Iran was imminent, Trump posted to Truth Social that Iran’s latest response to US proposals was “utterly unacceptable” – sending global oil prices skywards yet again.
The price of Brent Crude oil, which is the global benchmark for oil prices, rose 4 per cent on Monday, hitting around $105 a barrel. A year ago, it was just $65. Few of us are buying barrels of unrefined crude oil, but its price affects us all hugely – most obviously in petrol prices, and the cost of electricity and gas in our homes. But fuel is needed for agriculture, manufacturing and almost every other aspect of industry. When oil goes up in price, everything else follows.
Trump has repeatedly shown he doesn’t much care about the knock-on effect of his decisions for countries across the world. His attempt to introduce sweeping global tariffs last year caused economic havoc among almost all of the USA’s trading partners.
The President has threatened to take over Canada, Greenland and Mexico, and has claimed to be running Venezuela. He has largely abandoned Ukraine to fend off Russia’s aggression on its own. He is openly contemptuous of the Nato alliance.
The fact that his war on Iran is causing misery across Europe and the Middle East, then, is unlikely to matter much to Trump. But rising oil prices are a different matter, and almost impossible for him to ignore – when the global oil price rises, the price of fuel at the pump in America goes up, and US voters care very much about that.
The USS Rafael Peralta implements the maritime blockade against Iran-flagged crude oil tanker vessel Stream as it tries to sail towards an Iranian port in April (Photo: US Navy / AFP via Getty Images)Before Trump launched his offensive against Iran in March, gasoline was about $3 a gallon for retail customers. Today, it averages around $4.50 a gallon – an increase of 50 per cent in just two months. That is a huge blow to the wallets of typical American families, but there could be much worse to come.
Around 20 per cent of the world’s traded oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been all but blocked for the last two months. That backlog is enough of a problem, but the knock-on effects are worse. Once you’ve pumped oil out of the ground, you have to ship it somewhere, or else find a place to store it – and that takes a lot of space.
Once storage is full, and with no ability to ship oil out, refineries have to shut down, and restarting them can take weeks, if not months. As if all of that wasn’t a problem enough, several major refineries in the Middle East have been damaged by Iranian strikes. That means that even once the Strait has reopened, there will be supply shortages for months.
Oil prices surged after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to a ceasefire proposal, with Brent crude jumping to $105.99 per barrel amid fears of prolonged disruption around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.– Bloomberg pic.twitter.com/xgAbQwccSw
— Mintel World (@mintelworld) May 11, 2026The oil price spike is enough to make the cost of living much more expensive for almost everyone across the world, but the worst is still to come. At present, countries are emptying their emergency reserves of oil to maintain supply, but those are finite – and they’ll need replacing once the crisis is over.
All of this means that this disaster of Trump’s own making is even worse than the current increase in prices suggests. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen soon, countries across Europe and Asia may simply not have enough oil to keep the lights on, or cars on the road – prices could get much higher, and some countries just won’t have enough fuel at any price.
Trump is lucky that the USA produces most of the oil and gas that it uses, meaning it is unlikely to face the worst consequences of his actions. But his luck has limits: American fuel prices could still go much higher than they already are. Serious economists have suggested gas prices could hit $8 a gallon, which would provoke utter fury among American voters.
Vehicles queuing at a Costco gas station on 1 May in Simi Valley, California (Photo: Kevin Carter/Getty Images)Trump himself might not be on the ballot, but 2026 is an election year in America, with control of both the House and the Senate up for grabs. If Trump loses the House, he will face endless Congressional scrutiny of his every action, and will struggle to pass even basic budgetary measures. If he loses the Senate, he can no longer confirm judges or appointees, and could face a months-long impeachment trial.
The electoral map favours the Republicans. Thanks to gerrymandering, the contests are eminently winnable for Trump’s party. But if Trump’s wars continue to send oil and gas prices spiralling, it could spell the effective end of his presidency in just a few short months – and Trump would have no one to blame but himself.
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