On Sunday, Iran responded to a U.S. proposal for an initial deal to end the war and open up a 30-day window for negotiations towards a comprehensive agreement. “For now, we have decided to focus on ending the war, because this issue is a matter of concern for the entire region, for our nation, and for the international community,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaeui said on state-owned Press TV.
But the prospects of an imminent deal appear to have dimmed.
Trump and his officials have said their red lines include Iran abandoning its nuclear program and opening the Strait of Hormuz to all shipping. Iran effectively took control of the Strait in retaliation against the U.S. and Israel launching the war on Feb. 28, and allowed only vessels with its explicit permission to pass through. Around a fifth of the world’s oil trade flowed through the Strait prior to the start of the war. Prices of energy and other commodities have soared since then, raising inflationary pressures in the U.S. and around the world. Brent crude prices rose by 3.17% on Sunday to $104.50 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 3.21% to $98.48 a barrel.
When asked if combat operations against Iran had ended, Trump said on Sunday, “They are defeated, but that doesn’t mean they’re done.”
Analysts have described the current state of play as a deadlock in which the hot war between the U.S. and Iran has paused but underlying tensions remain and could bubble up into renewed hostility at any time.
Iran offered to dilute some of its highly enriched uranium and transfer the rest to a third country, the Wall Street Journal reported, although Tasnim disputed the report, citing an unnamed source.
American Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told Fox News on Sunday, “Trump has been clear they will never have a nuclear weapon and they cannot hold the world’s economies hostage.” Waltz did not rule out the possibility of the U.S. resuming hostilities with Iran if diplomacy falls through.
But Netanyahu reportedly spoke with Trump on Sunday evening and Trump agreed that it was necessary to remove Iran’s stockpile. “There is still nuclear material, enriched uranium, that has to be taken out of Iran,” Netanyahu told CBS on Sunday. “There’s still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. There are still proxies that Iran supports. There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce.”
“You go in, and you take it out,” he told CBS.
“It’s clear that he needs a deal,” Figueroa told TIME. The Trump Administration appears to be publicly distancing itself from the war, which is broadly unpopular with Americans, and taking a defensive posture. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced last week that “Operation Epic Fury”—the two-month-long U.S. offensive—had ended. In a letter to Congress, Trump said the war has been “terminated” due to the ongoing cease-fire, arguing that he therefore does not have to seek congressional approval. Congressional Democrats have tried to force an end to the war through the War Powers Act.
And Trump faces the challenge of negotiating a deal with Iran that does not make the U.S. appear to be a loser in the war, analysts tell TIME, while Iran has signaled that it will not acquiesce to U.S. demands so easily.
“For Washington, the priority is stabilization. Calmer oil and gas markets would reduce economic pressure and ease the political burden on President Trump, especially given his promise to avoid another major war,” Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow with University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute and a native of Iran, tells TIME.
Iran’s red line: Israel’s war in Lebanon
Israel’s continued attacks on neighboring Lebanon threaten to unravel not only the U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon cease-fire but also progress towards a U.S.-Iran deal.
Iran has indicated that a cessation of Israeli attacks across the region is one of its red lines. Iran cited Israel’s attacks on Lebanon as a reason for keeping the Strait closed during its own cease-fire. And a new wave of Israeli attacks on Lebanon, which have killed more than 50 people over the weekend according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, could make Iran less open to further negotiations, analysts say.
“If Israel continues striking Hezbollah, Iran may find it politically impossible to continue talks with the United States,” says Mahmoudian. “A deal with Washington while Hezbollah is under sustained attack would make Iran appear to have abandoned one of its most important allies, damaging its credibility with Hezbollah and other regional partners.”
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