Travellers to Frankfurt and Miami are among those most affected by flight cancellations in the UK amid the ongoing jet fuel crisis, The i Paper can reveal.
At least 13,000 flights – representing two million fewer seats – have been cancelled worldwide by airlines already this month, according to aviation analysts Cirium.
Some 120 flights from the UK to global destinations have been cancelled for May, as well as 36 in June, with experts warning the figures are expected to grow as the Iran war drags on.
The conflict has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for jet fuel, choking off supplies and pushing up prices.
Frankfurt was the global destination with the most recent cancellations from the UK, with 35 flights axed over the last week, The i Paper‘s analysis of Cirium’s data found. More than 4,000 passengers were affected by the scheduling changes.
Munich, another German city, had the second-highest number of cancelled flights (seven), followed by the US city of Miami (four).
Other destinations affecting British travellers included Abu Dhabi and Amman in Jordan, Abuja in Nigeria, and, closer to home, Edinburgh and Guernsey.
John Grant, chief analyst at the aviation analytics firm OAG, said the cancellations to Frankfurt and Munich were driven by Lufthansa, which faced a series of strikes that disrupted its services.
Last month, the German carrier said it would cut 20,000 European short-haul flights over the summer because soaring fuel prices have made many journeys “unprofitable”.
Grant said disrupted flights to Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, reflect its proximity to the conflict – Iran has directly targeted it.
He said cancellations to Istanbul followed Turkish Airlines’ decision to combine multiple daily flights.
The most vulnerable flights
Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, said seasonal and low-demand regional flights were more vulnerable to cuts, as well as long-haul flights that require more jet fuel to operate.
He said some carriers have cancelled flights not only to preserve fuel supplies, but also because “there’s a real risk that other airports might also have fuel supply issues that might make a return journey difficult”.
Bryan Terry, managing director of Alton Aviation Consulting, said cancellations will grow due to the disruption created by the conflict and regulatory changes that took effect this month.
The Government has relaxed the “use-it-or-lose-it” slot rules, allowing airlines to cancel some flights without losing valuable rights to operate them the following season.
Terry said routes with less demand would be first to be affected by cuts, with airlines more likely to combine multiple daily flights into a single destination.
He said most airlines serve tourist hotspots like Mediterranean resorts daily, and they are likely to be protected during the busiest parts of the summer season.
“That said, you could see airlines cease summer-only operations earlier than planned, as declining demand toward the end of the season could be the difference between profitable and unprofitable flying,” he said.
On Friday, the International Air Transport Association (Iata), which represents carriers, said European airlines should consider switching to US-made jet fuel to “ease some pressure”.
Jet A-1 and Jet A, which is primarily used in North America, are similar, with the main difference being that Jet A-1 has a lower maximum freezing point, providing more flexibility on long-haul and polar routes.
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