By James Sutherland on SwimSwam
SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers if Leon Marchand will lower his world record in the 400 IM at the European Championships, with options ranging from a historic sub-4 swim to going 4:04-plus offered:
Question: What will Leon Marchand go in the 400 IM this summer?
RESULTS
4:01 – 37.5% 4:02.00 – 4:02.49 – 17.9% Sub-4 – 14.1% 4:00 – 12.4% 4:03 – 9.0% 4:04+ – 4.9% 4:02.50 – 4:02.99 – 4.3%The man put it out there himself. Leon Marchand told French media last month that he wants to break the world record in the 400 IM at this summer’s European Championships.
On one hand, of course Marchand wants to set a new best time in the event and therefore break the world record, which is now nearly three years old. But it doesn’t feel like something he would just say publicly without having done the training that indicates he’s on track to take it down.
Marchand’s record stands at 4:02.50, set at the 2023 World Championships, which was a historic performance that broke the 15-year-old mark of 4:03.84 set by Michael Phelps in 2008.
Since then, Marchand won a dominant gold medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics on home soil in a time of 4:02.95, a new Olympic Record, and then followed up by winning the world title last summer in 4:04.73. He was clearly targeting the 200 IM in Singapore, having obliterated Ryan Lochte‘s world record in a stunning time of 1:52.69, and the 400 IM felt like more of a secondary focus.
Now that it’s full pedal to the medal on the 400 IM, we asked SwimSwam readers what they think Marchand will go this summer, and the overwhelming majority think the world record is going down. But the question is, by how much?
The top option with 37.5% of votes was something in the 4:01 range, which would break the existing world record by anywhere from a half-second to one and a half seconds. That was followed by a swim in the 4:02s, but under his world record of 4:02.50, at 17.9%.
Something under 4:00 almost seems too far outside of reality, at least for now, but we opted to include it in the poll, and it got plenty of love with 14.1% of votes. That’s an ultra-optimistic point of view, but hey, he’s done things that have left jaws on the floor before. At the 2023 NCAA Championships, he broke the U.S. Open Record in the 400 IM by 2.75 seconds, bringing the mark down from 3:31.57 to 3:28.82.
A swim in the 4:00s picked up 12.4% of votes, meaning that the four options in the poll under the world record all got more votes than the three others over the world record.
In total, 81.9% of votes went towards a time under the world record.
A combined 13.9% of votes predicted that Marchand will go 4:03, 4:04, or above, while only 4.3% picked a time in the 4:02s, but above the 4:02.50 world record.
Clearly, people want to see him break the record, and that will extend beyond the SwimSwam audience, as he’ll be racing in front of the home French crowd in Paris.
It’s worth noting that Euros won’t be hosted in the same pool as the 2024 Olympics, which, at least early in the meet, was accused of being the reason behind relatively slow times due to its shallow depth, though four world records eventually went down later in the competition.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: After crushing her 100 fly world record in Fort Lauderdale, will Gretchen Walsh get her hands on one of, or both, of Sarah Sjostrom’s LCM 50 world records this year:
Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.ABOUT A3 PERFORMANCE
A3 Performance is an independently-owned, performance swimwear company built on a passion for swimming, athletes, and athletic performance. We encourage swimmers to swim better and faster at all ages and levels, from beginners to Olympians. Driven by a genuine leader and devoted staff that are passionate about swimming and service, A3 Performance strives to inspire and enrich the sport of swimming with innovative and impactful products that motivate swimmers to be their very best – an A3 Performer.The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.
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