American forces on Thursday carried out retaliatory strikes on Iranian military facilities that allegedly launched a series of “unprovoked” missile, drone, and small boat attacks against U.S. warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said. U.S. forces intercepted the Iranian attacks and no damage was done to the three U.S. Destroyers, USS Truxtun (DDG 103), USS Rafael Peralta (DDG 115), and USS Mason (DDG 87), according to CENTCOM. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Iranian missiles and drones “dropped ever so beautifully down to the Ocean, very much like a butterfly dropping to its grave!”
The latest attacks came a day after U.S. forces seized an Iranian oil tanker allegedly violating the U.S. naval blockade. Iran has called both the seizure and the naval blockade violations of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire that went into effect on April 8. Iran also pushed back on the U.S. characterization of Thursday’s airstrikes, saying that the U.S. hit civilian areas, according to Iranian state media.
Trump’s threats are not out of the ordinary, but they aren’t moving the U.S. away from the negotiating table. Instead, experts tell TIME that Washington is searching for a way out of the war, but it may not emerge with a clear-cut victory.
The new hostilities come as the Trump Administration has sought to wind down the war, which is broadly unpopular with Americans. Trump officials earlier this week announced an end to the offensive phase of the war dubbed “Operation Epic Fury” and said that the U.S. is focused on restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial global energy and shipping corridor that Iran has effectively controlled since the start of the war, leading to surging prices of oil, gas, and other commodities. But the U.S. may be running out of options. Trump paused a short-lived mission to “guide” stranded ships out of the Strait as the U.S. and Iran were reportedly getting close to a framework agreement that could pave the way for a more lasting truce. But a deal has yet to materialize, while the war—despite a cease-fire in name—has appeared to continue.
Thursday’s U.S. airstrikes hit Iranian “missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations; and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes,” according to CENTCOM. A U.S. official told CNN that the strikes were on locations including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.
On Wednesday, U.S. forces also disabled an Iranian-flagged oil tanker, the M/T Hasna, in the Gulf of Oman that had allegedly been sailing towards an Iranian port. Earlier this week, the U.S. and Iran traded attacks with the U.S. saying Iran had damaged a South Korean cargo vessel during “Project Freedom” and that American forces sunk seven Iranian patrol boats. Iran denied both claims.
Other officials have tried to downplay the U.S. position in the Middle East. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the two-month-long “Operation Epic Fury” was over and that the U.S. is taking a defensive posture. Trump also claimed that he does not require congressional approval because the war has effectively ended. On Thursday, CENTCOM said in its statement that U.S. forces do “not seek escalation.”
While Trump has issued escalatory rhetoric, Chay says his threats are part of his “self-presentation as a strongman,” which is meant to serve multiple audiences, from markets to domestic constituencies, and to act as a negotiating instrument. Earlier this week, Trump reportedly said Iran would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if it targeted U.S. ships. Trump also previously threatened to wipe out “a whole civilization” if Iran did not agree to a cease-fire and re-open the Strait of Hormuz.
Doing so has left observers questioning the parameters of the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, especially since Iran asserted that U.S. actions are violations. When asked what lines Iran would have to cross to be considered cease-fire violations, Trump on Tuesday said only, “they know what not to do.”
Figueroa tells TIME the cease-fire is intact in the way that “matters the most to ordinary Iranians: there is no longer an aerial bombardment campaign of major cities.”
“You won’t have to know if there’s no ceasefire,” Trump told reporters on Thursday. “You’ll just have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran.”
Prospects for a deal
Iran said it is reviewing a proposal for a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war.
The framework reportedly involves three stages, beginning with an end to the war, followed by the lifting of both U.S. and Iranian restrictions in the Strait, and finally hammering out other demands over a 30-day period once the MOU is signed. American demands reportedly include a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment, while Iran is reportedly seeking the lifting of U.S. sanctions.
The U.S. and Iran have exchanged proposals several times since before the cease-fire began, but sticking points have remained largely over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. A first round of marathon talks collapsed, and a second in-person meeting is yet to take place, although direct and indirect negotiations are ongoing. Several Iranian officials expressed pessimism around an imminent deal this week, and the Iranians previously said trust was broken after U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations stalled and ultimately collapsed when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February.
“Even as both parties have publicly adopted hardline, at times zero-sum postures,” Chay says, “the reality is almost certainly one of quiet concession-making: both sides seeking a formula that allows each to claim a meaningful victory for their respective domestic audiences while offering the other a face-saving climbdown.”
Liu Jia, a research fellow at the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore, tells TIME that current squabbles are a kind of “pressure test, with each side trying to measure the effectiveness of the other’s leverage in order to extract greater concessions.”
Trump, on the other hand, risks dragging the U.S. into a prolonged, costly war that could hurt Republican prospects in the midterm elections, while experts have warned that persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global recession. “Trump needs to show that the war achieved something,” Ghiselli says, “and that the cost that American voters and the world are paying was not paid in vain.”
And, Liu adds, “a prolonged U.S. military focus on the region could create strategic opportunities for China and other Global South states to expand their influence, weakening America’s position as the world hegemon and reshape the global order.”
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