The 2026 NBA Draft class is young, talented and deep, with potential diamonds in the rough beyond the lottery. Here are three sleeper prospects who project well in our draft model.
The NBA Draft Lottery on Sunday is highly anticipated, with teams hoping to jump into the top four picks of what many consider will be a historically strong class of prospects.
While many intriguing players will get chosen in the lottery – the first 14 of 30 overall first-round picks – NBA teams in recent years have found plenty of quality players, even superstars, later in the draft.
Of particular note:
Nine of the 28 players named to the NBA All-Star teams this season were selected outside the lottery. Seventeen of the top 50 players in the current NBA DRIP all-in-one metric were drafted outside the lottery. Twenty-one of the top 50 players in the Stats Perform WAR (Wins Above Replacement) metric were undrafted or taken outside the lottery. Three players ranked in the top 10 of our 2025-26 NBA MVP prediction model were non-lottery picks.To identify some of this year’s draft sleepers, potentially future All-Stars, who might be selected outside the lottery, we rely on our draft model, which projects a player’s future NBA DRIP by using a combination of box score statistics, pre-draft rankings, advanced Division I player metrics such as DRIP and WAR, and other factors.
Upcoming Dates to Know
May 10 – NBA Draft Lottery (3 p.m. ET, ABC) May 10-17 – NBA Draft Combine in Chicago June 13 – Deadline for an early entry player to withdraw from the NBA Draft June 23 – NBA Draft First Round, 8 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN) June 24 – NBA Draft Second Round, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)Although they may not get the same recognition as expected top picks such as AJ Dybantas, Cameron Boozer and Darryn Peterson, below are three prospects being mocked outside of the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery who our draft model thinks are being undervalued.
Allen Graves, Santa Clara, 6-9 Forward
As a freshman last season, Graves averaged 11.8 points in only 22.6 minutes per game, mostly off the bench while helping Santa Clara to its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1996. He earned West Coast Conference freshman and sixth man of the year honors.
Graves is getting a lot of buzz as a mid- to late first-round pick despite coming off the bench for a non-Power 4 team and after not really being on this year’s NBA Draft radar heading into the season.
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7 months ago Taylor BechtoldHe has a strong statistical profile, including efficient shooting from the floor (51.2%) and on 3-pointers (41.3%). He’s well-rounded, ranking in the top 40 of our NCAA basketball leaderboards in DRIP and the top 50 in VAPR (Value Added Performance Rating, or points contribution above or below the NCAA average per 100 possessions played). Among freshmen, he’s eighth in overall DRIP (6.2) and defensive DRIP (2.9), and 21st in offensive DRIP (3.3).
Graves might not turn into an All-Star, but the draft model projects him to have a very high floor and with a higher probability of becoming a rotation player than other prospects projected to go in his range of the draft.
Graves may still opt to withdraw from the NBA Draft. If that happens and he plays another collegiate season, his stock might rise to be more in line with our projections in next year’s draft.
Potential Picks: San Antonio (20), Detroit (21), Philadelphia (22)
Dailyn Swain, Texas, 6-8 Guard/Forward
After two seasons at Xavier, Swain followed coach Sean Miller to Texas, where he led the Longhorns in points (17.3), rebounds (7.5), assists (3.6) and steals (1.6) per game, and to the Sweet 16, where they lost to Purdue on a last-second tip-in.
Only three Division I players who played at least 75% of their team’s games met all three parameters last season.Swain finished his junior season with a 7.4 DRIP, ranking 16th nationally. His 3-point shot improved significantly throughout his college career, from 15.4% as a freshman and 25.0% as a sophomore, with under one attempt per game in both seasons, to 34.4% on 2.6 attempts per game as a junior. His steady free throw shooting of over 81.0% in each of his college seasons suggests even more potential growth from long distance.
Swain is another player who projects to have a high floor, partially because our model believes in him on both sides of the ball. He’s one of only 11 players in the draft class who projects to have above-average offensive and defensive DRIPs by the end of their rookie contracts.
Potential Picks: Memphis (16), Denver (26), Boston (27)
Jayden Quaintance, Kentucky, 6-10 Forward
Quaintance is one of the biggest mysteries in this year’s NBA Draft class as he played only four games in his sophomore season at Kentucky after injuring his knee 24 games into his freshman campaign at Arizona State.
He was only 17 at the start of his 2024-25 season at Arizona State, but he was a defensive monster. He averaged 2.6 blocks and finished with a 4.07 defensive DRIP, which would’ve ranked fifth in the country this past season.
If the 6-foot-10, 255-pound Quaintance can stay healthy, the draft model projects him to be the top defensive player in the draft class with a D-DRIP almost a full standard deviation above the next-highest player.
Offensively, he remains a work-in-progress. He shot only 18.8% from 3-point range on 32 attempts (all at Arizona State) and was a 45.2% free throw shooter across his two shortened seasons. He also averaged only 8.8 points in 28 career games (9.4 at ASU and 5.0 at Kentucky). But his athleticism should at the minimum allow for him to become a quality rim-running center even if he never develops an outside shot.
Quaintance is one of the highest-variance prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft class, but his outlier athleticism, age (he turns 19 in July) and what he has shown defensively in a limited sample project either analytically or with the eye test to make him a worthwhile risk for the team that selects him.
Potential Picks: Chicago (15), San Antonio (20), Boston (27)
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