Iran is expected to respond within the next 48 hours to a possible framework deal to end the U.S.-Israel war in the Middle East, U.S. officials told Axios on Wednesday. Iranian officials are reviewing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would declare an end to the two-month-long war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28. The MOU, which is being discussed via both direct and indirect negotiations led by Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, would also create a framework for more detailed negotiations over a 30-day period, officials said.
An agreement has not yet been reached, and it is possible that the terms laid out in the framework could still change during negotiations toward a final agreement. CNN reported that the Iranian response could come Thursday, citing sources familiar with the negotiations, while Pakistani sources familiar with the talks also described to Reuters positive progress towards a deal.
“We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday. On Tuesday, the President paused “Project Freedom,” the freshly-launched mission to guide stranded ships out of the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to “great progress” in U.S. talks with Iran.
The ongoing U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which the U.S. has demanded Iran open to all transit not just ships that obtain its permission, has ratcheted up frictions between the two parties. Tensions escalated during the U.S.’s short-lived “Project Freedom,” which Iran had warned would be considered a violation of the cease-fire that began on April 8. Earlier this week, the U.S. and Iran traded attacks in the waterway and the U.A.E. reported strikes on its territory, which Iran denied responsibility for.
China, a longtime friend of Iran, also called for the reopening of the Strait in a Wednesday meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi. Trump is set to visit Beijing to meet with his counterpart Xi Jinping next week.
Nuclear program at center of negotiations
As part of the MOU, Iran would have to commit to never seeking a nuclear weapon, which the country has already maintained it has never sought to develop.
Trump officials reportedly also want to include a provision that any violation on enrichment would extend the moratorium.
After the U.S. joined Israel in bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities last June, observers have said it’s difficult to determine how much of Iran’s nuclear capacity was destroyed and how much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile survived.
Outlook of a deal
“We don’t have to have the actual agreement written in one day,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday. “But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear on the topics they are willing to negotiate on and the extent of the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make it worthwhile.”
Even so, Trump cautioned that while the war has “a very good chance of ending, … if it doesn’t end, we have to go back to bombing the hell out of them.” On multiple occasions over the course of the war, Trump has suggested Iran was ready to make a deal while he also has threatened to wipe out “a whole civilization.” So far, the U.S. and Iran have not agreed to a more lasting peace, leaving the two parties in a stalemate in which military attacks might resume at any time.
Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian Parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, called the Axios report “more of an American wish list than a reality.”
Speaker of Iran’s Parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf posted, “Operation Trust Me Bro failed.” Apparently referencing the Axios report, he added, “Now back to routine with Operation Fauxios.”
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