Of course, with Trump’s fragile cease-fire with Iran already cracking in the Strait of Hormuz, significant uncertainty clouds whether his China trip will happen at all. U.S. commanders-in-chief don’t typically gladhand their chief adversary while ensnared in a costly and floundering war. Trump is, however, no slave to convention, especially considering the ugly optics of postponing the trip a second time. What is much more certain is that nothing substantive will materialize from the summit.
That might be surprising given the world finds itself beset by serious problems, not least oil shortages caused by the double-blockaded Strait of Hormuz portending a global recession, warns the IMF. But despite half of China’s oil and almost a third of its liquefied natural gas imports transiting the Strait, and some 13% of pre-war oil imports coming from Iran directly, Beijing has so far weathered the disruption surprisingly well. This is due largely to its gigantic reserves, a strategy of developing fossil and non-fossil energy sources in tandem, and building out overland oil and gas pipelines. As such, Xi can feel rightly smug, especially in comparison to beleaguered U.S. allies, and is unlikely to exert himself trying to solve the crisis.
Of course, despite the high stakes, inertia is to be expected. The usual pattern for U.S. Presidents is that they arrive in the White House confident they can strike a grand bargain with China over persistent bugbears, such as state subsidies, dumping goods, and market access in areas like financial services. However, despite endless talks, Beijing never budges, and eventually domestic concerns take precedence as midterms loom.
“You can make the case that it’s really important for the two most important countries in the world to get together and talk about high matters of state,” says Nick Bisley, a professor of international relations at Australia’s La Trobe University. “But if the past is any evidence, the Chinese will not follow through to any great degree.”
“When you get down to real, serious issues, whatever concessions China makes will be nominal and not necessarily implemented,” says Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London. “But does Donald Trump care? Winning for him is just something he can post on Truth Social.”
The futility of negotiations is now an open secret. In 2006, President George W. Bush started the U.S.–China Strategic Economic Dialogue with grandiose goals of being a “G2,” as one former official put it. It was expanded by Obama three years later into the Strategic and Economic Dialogue, but it was discontinued in 2017. Likewise, the Joint Committee on Commerce and Trade was established back in 1983 but had its last meeting in 2016. “It was never formally disbanded, but the two sides simply gave up,” says Thompson. “There’s real dialogue fatigue.”
But while the foreign policy of Trump’s first term was very focused at bashing China, his second has been scattergun, with military strikes on at least nine countries, threats to invade Greenland, Canada, and Panama, as well as economic and diplomatic spats with the U.K., E.U., and many others. While Beijing has not been immune to these broadsides, it has been far from a primary target, which has surprised many since there’s no shortage of China hawks in Trump’s inner circle. That anti-Beijing sentiment, however, isn’t matched by actual China expertise, which has been gutted from the State Department.
Still, Taiwan is where curveballs may appear. There have been murmurs that Beijing will attempt to cajole Trump into saying that the U.S. “opposes” Taiwan independence to demonstrate Washington is still committed to dual deterrence of any change to the status quo. “But I don’t think there is much optimism,” says Sullivan. “More likely the Chinese will state their position regarding Taiwan and maybe the Americans don’t explicitly challenge it.”
But given the Trump Administration’s more cavalier approach to AI—framing the technology as a strategic advantage to lean into rather than peril to guard against—it remains unlikely the two sides can advance substantive cooperation on risk mitigation. Indeed, AI is already becoming yet another source of entrenched tension, with the White House just this week accusing China of “industrial-scale” theft of American AI models, and Beijing blocking Meta’s acquisition of Chinese-founded AI firm Manus.
“It is precisely this lack of substance that defines the summit’s purpose,” adds Carlson. “Absent any real content, both men can declare victory without sacrificing much of anything. The summit itself is then the thing.”
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