Could China push Iran into a peace deal? Only if it gets something in return ...Egypt

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Beijing — 

A visit to Beijing by Iran’s top diplomat – days before US President Donald Trump is set to travel to the Chinese capital – has turned up the spotlight on a key question: can China take on the role of peace broker in US-Iran conflict?

With a shaky ceasefire and stop-and-start diplomacy so far failing to make for a durable end to a war that threatens to drag down the global economy, both Tehran and Washington are looking for an offramp.

And Beijing, on paper anyway, is an obvious contender to take up that mantle.

China has long been a close diplomatic and economic ally of Iran – an allegiance founded on its shared frictions with the US and a thirst for cheap oil. It also has an open line to Washington – and the direct ear of Trump during his meeting with leader Xi Jinping next week.

It was that timing that likely drew Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Beijing, where he aired high hopes that Beijing could prevent “violations of international peace and security” in a meeting with Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, according to an Iranian readout.

And Trump, too, is likely to raise the conflict with Xi when he makes his expected trip – once set to focus on economic competition between the two powers and now overshadowed by the Iran war.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio alluded to as much on Tuesday, when he told reporters he hoped China would push Iran to ease its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

Chinese officials themselves have for weeks called for ceasefire and positioned Beijing as a potential peace broker, including with Xi releasing a broad-strokes, four-point proposal for Middle East peace last month.

Wang, the foreign minister, reiterated Beijing’s positioning in his meeting with Araghchi, pledging to continue to assist launching peace talks and “play a greater role in restoring peace and tranquillity in the Middle East,” according to a Chinese readout.

Already, having both sides in his court in the space of a week is a win for Xi, who aims to cement China’s role as a global power player. Negotiating with an increasingly unpopular US leader bogged down in a costly war and looking for easy wins is also likely not an unwelcome position in Xi’s eyes.

Chinese sources familiar with the matter recently told CNN that Beijing cautiously views its adversary’s months-long conflict with Iran as having potentially strengthened its negotiating position.

According to those sources, the situation could now present China with a unique opportunity to capitalize on the standoff ahead of what are likely to be brutal midterm elections for Trump, with the president seen as eager to present tangible wins to American voters, such as big Chinese purchases of US agricultural products and Boeing jets.

But how much Beijing is willing to apply pressure to move the sides toward peace is another question – as Xi looks to balance the mounting economic risks from the war, with China’s longer-term ambitions to position itself an alternative global power to the US.

Balancing act

Even as conventional wisdom in the West often suggests that Beijing is automatically happy anytime the US military is tied up elsewhere in the world, there are tangible reasons for China to want to see the conflict end.

The world’s second largest economy has been relatively insulated from the historic global oil crisis slamming its neighbors – including key regional US allies – due to China’s huge oil reserves, its high level of energy self-sufficiency and its early shift to green energy.

But as the war wears on, those reserves wear down — along with the energy security prioritized by Xi’s government. And even though there is no supply shortage, as yet, the Chinese economy is still subject to elevated fuel costs, some of which the government has asked national oil companies to offset. A global economic downturn due to the war will also hurt China’s export-reliant economy.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, second right, talks to his Iranian Counterpart Abbas Araghchi, left, during the bilateral meeting in Beijing, Wednesday, May 6, 2026.

Cai Yang/Xinhua/AP

There’s also concern about the war’s drag on US-China ties, a relationship Beijing wants to keep steady in order to reduce friction on its own global ambitions.

China has continued to purchase Iranian oil during the conflict, analysts say, still importing well over a million barrels per day last month – drawing down stock from floating storage already in Asia and unaffected by the US naval blockade of Hormuz.

The US in recent weeks has turned up economic pressure on Chinese purchases, which last year represented over 90% of Iran’s exports – and give Beijing significant economic leverage over Iran.

Washington last month blacklisted a large Chinese petrochemical firm it said was a major purchaser of Iranian crude, the biggest Chinese refinery yet to take this hit. In a rare move, Beijing ordered companies in the country not to comply with sanctions on that business and four other US-blacklisted domestic refineries.

China may be happy to deflect these frictions and gain goodwill with Trump by showing its recent diplomacy with Iran as part of a good-faith effort to help Washington end the war.

But analysts are skeptical that Beijing would use its leverage to press Iran too hard to bow to US demands, especially without clear incentives from Washington.

For one, Beijing may have little faith in its sway over Tehran, despite their diplomatic allegiance. And even as China has been restrained in its criticisms of the US during this conflict, it’s long maintained that the war is Washington’s mess to fix.

Meanwhile, even as China may wield significant economic leverage over Iran in the form of oil purchases, in the midst of a global oil crisis, China still needs those barrels too.

CNN’s Sylvie Zhuang contributed to this report.

Could China push Iran into a peace deal? Only if it gets something in return Egypt Independent.

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