A perhaps unexpected figure is emerging as one of the most likely successors to Donald Trump in terms of leading the virulent Maga movement, after another hopeful, Vice President JD Vance, has seen his star fall somewhat after a series of recent setbacks.
Marco Rubio, Trump’s Secretary of State, who is also acting national security adviser and acting director of the US Agency for International Development, was named on Time magazine’s 2026 list of most influential people (Vance was conspicuously absent). He has also been polling ever-higher with Republican voters, while rivals like Vance have seen their numbers fall.
Once a critic of Trump, who he ran against for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, Rubio has since become one of his most loyal allies.
The bond appears to be mutual, with ABC News reporting that the President has talked privately about how “popular” and “loved” Rubio is, and has even asked donors at Mar-a-Lago whether they preferred Rubio to Vance.
Rubio’s current positions are also some of the most consequential in Washington, and the office of Secretary of State and National Security Adviser have only been held simultaneously by one other person: Henry Kissinger in the mid-1970s.
Rubio’s ‘redemption story’
Although close allies now, the relationship between Rubio and Trump was not always friendly. During the battle for the 2016 Republican nomination, Rubio branded Trump a “con artist”, saying he was “wholly unprepared to be president of the United States”. He also described the notorious Access Hollywood recording as “vulgar, egregious and impossible to justify”.
Trump, meanwhile, called Rubio “Mr Meltdown,” “Little Marco” and a “clown”. In a bizarre series of campaign speeches, they even argued about who sweats more.
After sparring during the 2016 election season, Rubio and Donald Trump have become close allies (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty)However, Trump winning the Republican Party’s nomination proved to be a turning point for Rubio, who swiftly endorsed him, and during the 2024 presidential campaign Rubio was even on a shortlist of candidates to be his vice president, ultimately losing out to Vance.
The about-turn may seem surprising, but John Mark Hansen, a US politics expert from the University of Chicago, told The i Paper: “It just seems to be a thing that you can do in Maga – have some sort of a redemption story.”
Careful balancing act with Iran
Whilst Vance has moulded himself into a staunch isolationist and “America First” nationalist, a stance popular with the current Republican Party, Rubio represents a much more hawkish, traditional Republican view of conflict.
He has remained notably absent from much of the diplomacy with Iran. He did not attend the Pakistan-hosted US meeting with Iran earlier this month and hasn’t visited the Middle East since a short visit to Israel in October, before the latest war began.
Instead, Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, the President’s son-in-law, have appeared to be leading diplomacy with Iran, as well as with Israel, Ukraine and Russia.
Hansen said that this was a tactical choice by Rubio: “He is positioning himself to put some deniability between him and anything that would go wrong.”
JD Vance tried to help Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, who went on to lose his re-election bid last month (Photo: Jonathan Ernst-Pool/Getty)Rubio’s perceived distance from key moments in recent US foreign policy may work in his favour with Maga voters.
The collapse of the peace talks with Iran in early April, coupled with his failure to shore up support for Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, raised doubts over Vance’s candidacy to lead the Maga movement.
Earlier this month, Trump said of peace talks with Iran: “If it doesn’t happen, I’m blaming JD Vance… If it does happen, I’m taking full credit.”
A more successful foreign policy
Whilst Rubio has distanced himself from Trump’s unpopular war in Iran, he has been much more involved in other foreign policy areas.
He was one of the main architects of the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, working on the plan with Trump’s deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller for months. Both men are seen as ardent supporters of a more muscular US foreign policy in Latin America, according to a CNN report.
The Venezuela operation was seen as successful, with no US troop losses and Maduro now in custody in New York.
Rubio has also been a key backer of Trump’s “war on drugs” – including controversial strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean, which have resulted in at least 186 deaths. The legality of the strikes, as well as their effectiveness, has been questioned by many Trump critics.
On April 26, at the direction of #SOUTHCOM commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations. Intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known… pic.twitter.com/br2znnUM1x
— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) April 27, 2026Gaining popularity because ‘he’s not nuts’
As well as avoiding being linked to key foreign policy failures, Rubio’s lack of foreign travelling means that he spends more time by Trump’s side, which is arguably more important for Maga hopefuls than ever, given Trump’s tendency for impulsive decision-making.
While Witkoff, Kushner and Vance were trying to iron out a deal with Iranian officials in Islamabad recently, Rubio was with Trump watching a UFC fight.
Rubio’s many roles have also meant he’s had “a lot of access and face time with the President — and with Maga. That has been huge for him”, said Sean Spicer, a White House press secretary during Trump’s first term, in an interview to Politico.
Other notable Trump backers have now thrown their weight behind Rubio, including far-right activist Laura Loomer, who wrote on X earlier this year: “How could someone not support Marco Rubio? He is doing a fantastic job… He is going to be president someday. Mark my word.”
Meanwhile, Rubio has experienced a surge in popularity within the Maga base, with a straw poll of attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference in March finding that 35 per cent supported Rubio as the 2028 Republican candidate, up from just 3 per cent last year. However, in that same poll, Vance still claimed 53 per cent of the vote.
Hansen said that despite the numbers, Rubio is emerging as Trump’s heir apparent because he has the potential to appeal to people who Vance has no chance of winning over, people “who might look at Rubio and say that ‘he’s not nuts’”.
Even so, he said that Rubio’s popularity could easily be blunted. “A falling out with Trump is always possible – the man has no loyalty to anybody other than himself.”
Trump has shown a willingness to remove key members of his administration, with Kristi Noem, Pam Bondi, and his labour secretary, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, all having left since the start of 2026.
Michael Berkman, a professor of political science at Pennsylvania State University, said that Rubio could still get on the wrong side of Trump over Iran: “If Iran doesn’t go well, somebody’s got to suffer.”
The issue of JD Vance
Whilst Rubio’s fortunes are certainly on the up, Vance still holds many of the cards. He has strong alliances within the Republican Party, having forged close ties with figures such as Donald Trump Jr, Elon Musk and tech billionaire Peter Thiel.
Vance still enjoys the majority of support within Maga, but this could come back to bite him (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty)Vance’s support among voters also remains overwhelmingly strong, with a poll published last month showing 40 per cent backing him to be the 2028 Republican candidate, compared to Rubio’s 16 per cent.
Berkman said that Rubio might not be Maga enough for the Republican electorate, and that a candidate outside the current administration who is “much more Maga” than Rubio will likely emerge.
But with the midterms looming, the race to be Trump’s obvious successor will only intensify as we head into 2027. The result of the midterms could also prove seismic for the Republican Party, if results go against them and a blame game begins in earnest.
For this reason, Rubio is better off staying in the background for now, according to Hansen, who suggested that he could then resign closer to 2028 and start another run for the White House.
It would be far from a sure thing for Rubio, but Trump’s Maga crown awaits for someone.
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