The initiative, backed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), was rejected by the government last March. But it is gaining popularity among the public, who will vote on the proposal in a June 14 referendum: over half of Swiss respondents said they’re in favor of the proposal, according to a new opinion poll.
The results suggest that support for the initiative has grown since early March, when an earlier poll showed 45% of respondents in favor of the proposal and 47% against. Tages-Anzeiger noted that Swiss referendum proposals typically lose support closer to the voting day.
The proposal would cap the permanent resident population at 10 million before 2050. If the population exceeds 9.5 million before then, the government would have to take measures to curb immigration, including tightening rules for asylum and permanent residence. Crossing that threshold would also force the government to “renegotiate international agreements that drive population growth,” according to the proposal.
Have other countries had population caps?
If enacted, Switzerland’s fixed population ceiling may be the first of its kind to be enshrined in law, although in practice other countries have implemented policies aimed at limiting population growth either through restricting immigration or controlling birth rates.
Switzerland’s proposal is functionally more akin to an immigration quota. Many countries, including the U.S., Canada, Japan, and several in Europe, regulate immigration through quotas for certain visa categories, sectors, and at times country of origin. Unlike the Swiss proposal, which would set a long-term population cap till 2050, these quotas are often regularly reviewed. Between 1920 and 1965, the U.S. also strictly limited immigrants by nationality through a quota system and prohibited a large number of Asians from entering the U.S. through the Immigration Act of 1924. Those policies are widely seen today as racist and exclusionary.
SVP’s initiative argues that “uncontrolled immigration” is placing overwhelming pressure on Switzerland’s public infrastructure and increasing housing costs. More than 114,000 people signed onto the initiative, reaching the threshold for a plebiscite that will be voted on this summer. SVP is the largest party in Switzerland’s government.
What are arguments against the proposal?
Many Swiss lawmakers have pushed back against the initiative over concerns that it could hurt the Swiss economy, especially after U.S. tariffs last year impacted several Swiss industries like luxury goods, watches, machinery, and pharmaceuticals. Potentially terminating the free movement agreement with the E.U. could also impact Switzerland’s security and cooperation with the E.U.
In December, both chambers of the Swiss Parliament formally recommended a “no” vote to the initiative.
Economiesuisse, Switzerland’s largest business federation, has also objected to the proposal, warning that limiting immigration could lead to labor shortages especially for healthcare, research and service industries that depend on foreign labor. Switzerland’s aging population and falling birth rate will only exacerbate those shortages, the Swiss business lobby said.
The free movement of labor between European countries also allows for companies to establish multiple international branches and standardize licensing requirements, Mindy Marks, an economist at Northeastern University, told the university’s Northeastern Global News in March.
“But the wrongness of that belief is that the pie isn’t fixed,” she added. “People are an asset. People innovate. We figure stuff out, we produce new things. We make the pie bigger.”
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