Trump Is Weighing Two Options for Iran. They’re Both Horrific. ...Middle East

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Iran got smart, alright: Its embassy in Ghana cleverly mocked Trump on X by comparing his post to a movie flop:

— Iran in Ghana (@IRAN_GHANA) April 29, 2026

But don’t be fooled by these juvenile volleys on social media, or the fact that the ceasefire is still holding. The latest reporting suggests that the war is entering a more dangerous phase. The White House is considering several options to increase pressure on Iran, and none suggest that peace is on the horizon: They involve either a massive military escalation, the destruction of the global economy, or both.

The Groundhog Day nature of this ceasefire—Hormuz opens briefly then closes; talks occur but never seem to settle on anything; Trump continues to issue deranged threats, and Iran mocks them—has created the false sense that this conflict is markedly less volatile than it was three weeks ago. Trump, yes, has quieted talk of nuking Tehran, but as peace talks have faltered, he is weighing scenarios to cause Iran more pain—all of which would also cause plenty of pain for other countries, including the U.S.

A day later, Ravid reported that the U.S. had rejected Iran’s latest offer—to reopen the strait but punt on nuclear talks—and that Trump was settling into a maximum pressure campaign where the U.S. resumes strikes and continues its blockade indefinitely. Axios, citing three sources, reported on a U.S. Central Command plan “for a ‘short and powerful’ wave of strikes on Iran in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock.” “The blockade is somewhat more effective than the bombing,” Trump told the outlet. “They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them.” Trump, having settled on two awful choices, appears to be deciding to choose both.

Trump apparently believes that extending the blockade indefinitely and resuming bombing will force a weakened regime to make concessions. But a month of U.S. bombing and now the ongoing blockade apparently have not pushed Tehran’s hardline leaders anywhere close to an unconditional—or minimally conditioned—surrender. Indeed, a great deal of reporting suggests the regime believes, with good reason, that Trump will not be willing to withstand the pain of high energy prices and that if they hold on long enough he will crack.

Trump is choosing not to do that. And he’s hurtling toward a horrific decision that will likely cause thousands of deaths in Iran and the destruction of the global economy, all while making zero progress toward peace—or, for that matter, toward any of the stated goals of the Iran war, like ending its nuclear program. In this scenario, everyone loses.

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