After the dramatic events of this week, Donald Trump must be hoping that the third attempt on his life in less than two years, not to mention the King’s visit, will give his dire approval ratings a much-needed lift.
When Trump was targeted by a gunman in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024, just a few months before the last presidential election, he received a rapid uptick in support. Days before the shooting, polls showed 70 per cent of his supporters were enthusiastic about Trump’s candidacy, which rose to 85 per cent 10 days later, with a third of all voters polled saying that his life was saved by “divine providence”.
But the shooting at the White House correspondents’ dinner on Saturday has not seen any similar uptick in support, at least according to one early poll.
A YouGov poll published on Tuesday showed that just 37 per cent approved of the way Trump is handling his job as President, whilst 59 per cent disapproved, matching Trump’s highest disapproval rating during his second term. The poll, of 1836 US adults, was conducted in the two days before and after the shooting and found that Trump’s net approval was -22, just above his previous low of -23.
NEW Economist/YouGov Apr 24-27% who approve | disapprove of Donald TrumpU.S. adult citizens 37% | 59% (-22)Last week 38% | 54% (-16)Start of term 49% | 43% (+6)Dem 2% | 96%Ind 26% | 67%Rep 82% | 16%18-29: 33% | 60%65+: 37% | 61%(Link in reply) pic.twitter.com/e2lYnBD1Ym
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) April 28, 2026NEW Economist/YouGovNet job approval for the president at this stage of…• Trump's current term -22 (low -23; start +6)• Biden's presidency -8• Trump's first term -12 t.co/cjigeJPbFH pic.twitter.com/Gj78jUqwWB
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) April 28, 2026If this doesn’t change, and fast, November’s midterm elections, which will decide the fate of the US House and Senate, could look increasingly dim for the President and his Republican Party colleagues.
David Andersen, an associate professor in US politics at the University of Durham, said that the lackluster poll numbers are “a little surprising, but not very”.
He said that Trump has not had many big victories lately. “Until he has a big victory you can really expect to see those numbers continue to slide.” If the party couldn’t stem the flow of bad results “they could be in for a pretty epic loss this November. I think the Republican Party should be absolutely terrified of the midterms,” he added.
After the first assassination attempt, where Trump was photographed with blood on his face and his fist raised after a bullet grazed his ear, his favourability ratings rose by 1–2 percentage points in the days that followed. The incident was followed months later by an armed man being arrested at a golf course where Trump was playing, which led to a similar bump in the polls.
Thomas Gift, an associate professor in political science at University College London, said there was still reason to believe this weekend’s shooting could give Trump a “short-lived bump in the polls”.
“Americans often respond sympathetically when a president confronts tragedy – or even a would-be tragedy – and political science has long documented these kinds of ‘rally-around-the-flag’ effects,” he said.
Donald Trump pumps his fist as he is rushed offstage during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July 2024 after a gunman opened fire (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty)But he added that “any boost is unlikely to overwhelm broader structural forces shaping the race”.
Trump’s approval ratings have dropped over the last few weeks to around 33–40 per cent across different political polls, largely driven by the fallout over the US-Israeli war in Iran, surging gas prices, and economic concerns.
The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, released on Saturday before the latest shooting, found that Trump’s net approval had fallen to -18 per cent, its lowest levels to date across the President’s two terms in office. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll published last week found that seven in 10 Americans describe the US economy as poor and think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Trump has previously shown the ability to defy the odds, notably with his first run for president. He will also be hoping that the state visit from King Charles and Camilla this week will lead to some positive news cycles in the US and sprinkle a bit of stardust on his presidency. But that remains to be seen, and some of the King’s comments will likely have infuriated Trump and those around him.
Donald Trump, First Lady Melania, King Charles III and Queen Camilla during a tour of the White House beehives on day one of their current state visit (Photo: Suzanne Plunkett/PA Wire)When it comes to the shooting, Andersen said the main reason it may not have had a similar effect on Trump’s ratings is that it “lacks the direct drama provided by the first shooting, where Trump survived a narrow miss that left him with a bleeding ear and wrapped in Secret Service agents protecting him”.
He says the incident was more like the lower-profile second attempt, when the would-be assassin was spotted hiding in a hedge. “At no time was the President in imminent danger in these last two attempts, so it lacks the dramatic appeal of the first.”
Andersen also said that Trump “is less of a sympathetic figure right now. In his first assassination attempt, Trump was running for reelection and appealing for the support of the American people. He was promising to return the US to greatness by fighting for the American people and rescuing the economy.”
Now, “the American public don’t seem to feel like he is following through with his promises… The economy is struggling, Trump’s tariffs have contributed to rising prices, and his attention seems to be fixed on foreign wars and building ballrooms, not the American people.”
He added that the “cost of living crisis, a stagnating economy, and War in Iran are on top of Americans’ minds,” and that a “thwarted assassination attempt just isn’t likely to penetrate too deeply and sway people’s opinions”.
Law enforcement respond after a shooting incident outside the White House correspondents’ dinner Donald Trump was attending (Photo:Alex Brandon/AP Photo)This is bad news for Trump as November’s elections loom.
Although the President’s name will not be on the ballot, the elections will still be seen as a referendum on his presidency. Democrats could take control of Congress in the final two-years of Trump’s term, raising the specter of a confrontational Congress with the power to investigate and block the President’s agenda. Republicans currently hold a majority in both the House and the Senate.
Despite his diminished popularity, Trump still has the support of most Republican voters, with one poll from NBC showing 83 per cent give him a positive approval rating, but this is down 4 points from earlier this year and won’t make up for falling support among neutrals.
And any hope of a Trump bump from this week is already receding into the background.
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