Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Atlético Madrid have reached the UEFA Champions League semi-finals. Who will win the whole thing, though? We check in with the Opta supercomputer for the latest predictions.
The Champions League has delivered again this season, with some outstanding games, pure drama, and a fascinating final four heading into this week’s semi-final first legs.
Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain have both looked mightily impressive. The Bundesliga giants thrashed Atalanta in the last 16 before winning a titanic tussle with Real Madrid in the quarter-finals. PSG have carried on their theme of last year’s successful campaign by eliminating Premier League clubs in the knockout stage, with Chelsea and Liverpool both dispatched with relative ease. It promises to be a classic between two of the most exciting teams on the planet.
Atlético Madrid and Arsenal will face off in the other semi, two teams perhaps less synonymous with outstanding attacking football than Bayern and PSG, though it is a bit outdated to consider Atlético a primarily defensive team. Only Bayern and PSG (38 each) have scored more goals in this season’s competition than Diego Simeone’s men (34).
Interestingly, Arsenal and Atlético are the two teams that have played the most matches in the history of the European Cup/Champions League without ever winning it: 223 and 190 respectively. With one of them certain to reach the final, they can both dream of ending that run soon.
But what are their chances? Well, as you may be aware, we at Opta have our very own supercomputer, so we can see what its latest predictor numbers are.
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6 hours ago Tom PateyBayern Munich are favourites to win the Champions League, but only just. They won it in 36.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, narrowly ahead of Arsenal (35.7%). The stunning form of the Bundesliga giants has already seen them win their domestic league, and they will be hungry to add a first Champions League success since 2020 to that.
However, Arsenal are the likeliest team to reach the final, doing so in 71.7% of sims. That is partly because they play Atlético in the semis, the lowest-ranked team still in the competition according to the Opta Power Rankings, though obviously it will still be a tough assignment.
Bayern clearly face a very difficult task in taking on reigning champions PSG, and Vincent Kompany’s men advance to the final in Budapest in 61.7% of sims.
PSG are looking strong again, but their daunting challenge against Bayern means they only retained their title in 19% of simulations.
Atléti only won the whole thing in 8.8% of sims, but they weren’t exactly fancied to get past Barcelona in the quarter-finals either, so anything is possible.
It should be an exciting two weeks. By the end of which we will know which pair will be in the final, and we will of course nudge the supercomputer for more percentages then.
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