The world of the Cold War is gone, and so is the one that came after it. From the election of Hugo Chavez as President of Venezuela in 1998 to the early hours of Jan. 3, when his successor Nicolas Maduro was forcibly removed by the U.S., the Castro regime acted as the Chavismo project’s political mentor. Caracas bailed out Cuba by sending millions of barrels of oil to fill the gaping economic hole left by the collapse of the Soviet Union, its chief sponsor and political mentor until the early 90s. In return, Cuba sent doctors, teachers, and security agents to Venezuela.
Cuba has no oil, no rare earths, no major natural resources. Yet the government still clings, against all odds, to what remains of the Cuban revolution’s political prestige. At this point it might have been better for Castroism to preserve nothing at all, because in the geopolitical theater of a post-neoliberal world, the fall of the regime could serve Washington as a consolation prize. If things go badly in Iran, as they seem to be, Havana may end up paying the price. Empires in decline take revenge on their lesser enemies. Cuba under Castro’s successors is a much smaller, much weaker rival.
In recent weeks, politicians, activists, and intellectuals have published articles and issued statements warning of Cuba’s humanitarian crisis. They argue that the U.S. oil blockade will force hospitals to close, cripple food production, and leave people hungry. They would be right, if all of this were not already happening. From my perspective, it is impossible not to question those arguments. In the name of preventing future hunger, they overlook the hunger that already exists or assume that Washington holds a monopoly on injustice and that they, in turn, claim a monopoly on indignation.
Here is the sad reality of the present moment: even as some kind of change seems inevitable, democracy does not seem to be a real possibility for Cuba. The Cuban regime, having known nothing but authoritarian rule, cannot offer people what it has never practiced, and Trumpism cannot export what, in my view, it despises. It appears that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is trying to strike a deal with the Castroist leadership that would allow large corporations onto the island without restrictions. In return, it seems reasonable to assume, based on the Venezuelan playbook, that the Trump Administration would guarantee the military elite’s continued hold on power.
The Cuban model isn’t working, and its allies—China, Russia, and the pragmatic wing of Latin American progressivism—seem to have grown tired of the government’s inertia. Cuba faces an economic embargo, but in a globalized world there are many ways to get around or soften its effects, and the post-Castro regime fronted by President Miguel Diaz-Canel has shown little interest in doing so. The authorities fear that any economic reform would entail a loss of political power, using the embargo to justify the system’s lack of productivity.
The sovereignty of our countries is fragile, always at risk, and not something to be toyed with. Just as in Venezuela, Cuba now stands on the verge of selling it. In reality, it now feels almost inevitable, because those governments had already sold it long before. The United States simply took its time buying it.
Translated by Jacqueline Loss
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