Flight prices from the UK to Europe have fallen and cheap summer deals are still on offer despite the jet fuel crisis – but bargain seats are most at risk of looming cancellations due to the Iran war.
Data from travel comparison site Kayak shows average return flight prices to Europe from the UK in the week ending 13 April were down from £141 to £132 compared to last year, a drop of more than six per cent.
Average flights to Alicante in Spain over the same week fell to £103 from last year’s average price of £125, while a typical flight to Malaga was £110, down from £130 in 2025, Kayak’s analysis shows.
And holidaymakers heading to Faro, Portugal, were spending on average £123 compared to £135 in 2025, whereas flights to the Italian capital, Rome, have fallen from £134 to £114.
Examples of bargain summer flights for holidaymakers include a £40.99 one-way ticket from Gatwick to Menorca with easyJet on 22 August and a £72.62 fare to Pula in Croatia with the same carrier on 20 August.
Bargain flights can also be booked to Greece,which last week announced it was suspending biometric checks for British nationals under the EU’s Entry/Exit System (EES).
Skyscanner shows £67 flights to Kos from London Heathrow on 26 April and for £46 from Stansted to the same Greek island on 17 May.
But experts have warned the same flights – with unsold seats and alternative services on similar dates – could be the first to be cancelled in the coming weeks and months as the fuel crisis grips and supply chaos from the Strait of Hormuz closure continues.
John Grant, chief analyst at the aviation consultancy OAG, said: “For some airlines beginning to look forward at the possibility of fuel shortages, those destinations with the highest frequency are likely to see some reductions in frequency service.
“While at the other end of the spectrum some carriers will elect to cease operating to some of those destinations where forward bookings are relatively light.”
According to ABTA, which represents travel agents and tour operators, if your flight is cancelled and you’re departing from the UK, the airline must offer either a replacement flight or a refund (Photo: Craig Hastings/Getty)Airline bosses have warned cancellations and significant price increases could come as soon as next month if the Iran war continues.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary has said his airline was “reasonably well hedged” on 80 per cent of its fuel, which was bought before the Gulf crisis.
But he added that the carrier is paying almost double the cost – about $150 (£111) a barrel – on the other 20 per cent, and warned of a risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, which would push up prices.
Kenton Jarvis, easyJet CEO, said customers should expect higher ticket prices towards the end of summer, when existing fuel hedges expire.
Rhys Jones, an aviation editor at the frequent flyer website Head for Points, said UK airlines are more hedged than US airlines, so it protects them from some of the short-term pain for now.
“A lot depends on how long the crisis goes on. When existing hedges run out, if supply is still disrupted, then the higher the costs go,” he told The i Paper.
“You could increase the cost of air fares, and you could increase things like baggage charges. Baggage charges are visible for passengers and seem disconnected from the jet fuel conversation, so passengers may think it’s unfair.”
Meanwhile, Airlines UK has urged the Government to relax rules on the number of landing slots each airline must use in the event that a growing number of flights have to be cancelled.
Airlines must use 80 per cent of their allocated slots in the preceding winter or summer season to retain the same slots in the following season, with British Airways reportedly pressing the Government to suspend the regulations.
“Until there is anything agreed, British Airways will do their utmost to keep those slots as active as possible,” said Jones.
Bernard Lavelle, an aviation expert who runs BL Aviation Consulting, said UK airlines were more likely to add a fuel surcharge rather than hike baggage or seat prices.
“It’s simpler. The increased baggage fee is a mechanism used more in the US, when base air fares tend to be quite low,” he said.
Virgin has already added a fuel surcharge of £50 to economy-class tickets, with £180 to premium economy and £360 to business class.
Package holiday providers are legally allowed to charge up to 8 per cent of the overall cost of a trip in the event of fuel or tax rises, even after purchase and without offering a free cancellation.
Lavelle said UK airlines may have to join international airlines and start cancelling flights if the Iran conflict continues.
“If this continues, then absolutely we will [see more cancellations]. Airlines’ network departments will be working out what they should cut in May, in June, in July.”
“Hopefully, they could offer a flight later on the same day. But it’s possible a flight you booked on Monday isn’t available until Wednesday.”
Lavelle noted that UK airlines are urging the Government to change compensation rules.Airlines UK wants any flights cancelled at short notice due to jet fuel shortages to be classed as “extraordinary circumstances”, which would let them avoid paying compensation.
At the moment, passengers can claim compensation if their flight is cancelled less than 14 days before departure.
Aviation economist Oliver Ranson warned some UK passengers may get stranded abroad in the months ahead if cancellations hit return flights at short notice after they go on holiday.
“I would not want to be a long way from home when the music stops,” he said.
“Ryanair may be reasonably well hedged. But hedging does not magically conjure up fuel that does not exist. If there is no or limited fuel, planes will not fly.”
Outside Europe, large price rises have already kicked in on long-haul flights, with Kayak showing average flights to North America at up to £631, compared to £535 in 2025.
Joe Beevis, general manager at Flight Centre said airfares to destinations like Asia and Australia, increased by 29 per cent in March.
“A significant driver was reduced capacity from Middle East carriers, meaning a large number of travellers were competing for fewer seats,” he said.
Bookings for Australia in December and January were up over 10 per cent, he added.
He urged travellers aiming to go on holiday this summer to book their tickets now to lock in the price before any further increases.
Insurance fears for travellers as holiday chaos looms
According to ABTA, which represents travel agents and tour operators, if your flight is cancelled and you’re departing from the UK, the airline must offer either a replacement flight or a refund.
If your return flight to or within the UK on a UK or EU airline is cancelled, then you’re also entitled to a replacement flight or a refund.
If you’re flying from outside the UK with a non-UK/EU airline, passengers are advised to check the terms and conditions of the booking.
But making an insurance claim if a passenger on a cancelled flight can’t reach their hotel, for example, could be more problematic.
Matt Gatenby, a senior partner at law firm Travlaw, told The i Paper: “The insurer might say, that’s exactly what this policy is there for, send us the details, cancel the hotel, and we’ll pay out.
“Or, the insurer might say, well, contractually, the hotel’s still able to do its bit. The hotel you booked on the T’s and C’s, which allows them to still charge you, so there isn’t anything to really engage the insurance for.
“And that’s kind of what, anecdotally, we’re seeing a little bit of.”
Holidaymakers who booked insurance after the current crisis started may also have a policy that offers less protection than one bought before it, he added.
“Anecdotally, insurers tend to change some wording in policies when they see things coming up,” he said.
“So if they kind of have put in an exclusion, which is anything to do with the current Middle East problem, [it] would not be covered.”
Package holidaymakers have more protection, with the travel operator offering an alternative holiday of the same value or a refund for the whole trip (flights and accommodation).
The providers are also responsible for finding an alternative flight home if a plane is cancelled.
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