Donald Trump is trying to look relaxed about Iran. The US President has indefinitely extended the current shaky ceasefire in the region while he waits for a divided Iranian administration to come up with peace proposals. He’s claimed he’s “not in a rush” for a deal, and is happy to wait.
There are good reasons to doubt Trump’s sincerity on that front. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed – simultaneously mined by Iran and blockaded by the US navy. Every day it is shut, the higher the chances of a major global recession.
The US is sheltered from the worst of the price spikes, but gas hit $4 a gallon in late March and his energy secretary Chris Wright admitted this week it would likely not drop below $3 until next year. Trump ran for election on bringing back cheap gas, low inflation and a good economy. As the midterms approach, it is becoming ever more obvious he will deliver on none of these things.
All of these would be enough of a ticking clock for Trump on their own, but he has a much more acute deadline looming ahead of him: on 1 May, it will be 60 days since Trump notified Congress of his offensive action against Iran – at which point, on paper at least, Trump needs Congressional approval to continue his war.
Republicans in Congress, uneasy as they claim to be with this war, have been reluctant to use their powers to rein in Trump’s excesses. Democrats have tried to use the War Powers Resolution to curb the Iran conflict, but have been blocked by the Republican majority on multiple occasions.
However, the looming deadline might focus minds. At this stage, Trump can extend the deadline for 30 days, once only, and can only use this time for defensive operations necessary to withdraw US troops from the theatre of conflict.
Absent that, he needs positive authorisation from Congress to renew that war: at this stage, the calculus for Republicans changes. Instead of declining to block Trump’s war, they would be positively voting for it. Any Republicans worried about holding their seat at the midterms, or with ambitions on higher political office in the future, might be reluctant to sacrifice their future career for a lame duck president.
Republicans back Trump because doing so has been necessary for them to win. Those who failed to do so lost their primaries or struggled to raise funds. Trump’s election-winning coalition bulldozed away all internal opposition – but however devoted Republicans sound to Trump in public, there are hints the support is shallow.
In the wake of the 6 January riots, when for a time Trump seemed like a busted flush, dozens of elected Republicans publicly denounced him, readily dropping him from a great height – only to rally back to his cause when it became obvious voters didn’t care that he’d tried to overthrow the republic.
For so long as Trump is a winner, Republicans will stay slavishly loyal. The trouble for the President is that increasingly, he’s losing. He seems, somehow, to be losing his war with Iran. He’s losing control of prices at home. He’s losing popularity. And he’s set to lose the midterms.
Republicans will have all of that in mind when the 60-day deadline arrives. Trump could soon lose control of his party, too.
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