We have the most exciting title race in the Scottish top-flight in decades. Who will finish top, though? We ask the Opta supercomputer to do its thing.
Where did this title race in Scotland come from?
The closest race in the last decade was in 2021-22 when Celtic won the Premiership by four points from Rangers. Hearts finished third that season, but a massive 18 points behind second place.
However, with five matchdays to go in 2025-26, the top three are separated by just three points, and on top of that, they all have to play one another over the next few weeks now that the league has had it’s annual split into a top and bottom six.
Hearts lead the way on 70 points, with Rangers second on 69 and Celtic in third on 67.
You don’t need to be a Scottish football expert to know that this isn’t normal. The Old Firm duo of Rangers and Celtic have dominated things for decades, and it is incredibly rare that an outsider challenges at any point, let alone this late into a campaign.
Celtic have won 13 of the last 14 titles, so even Rangers winning this season would be somewhat of a surprise. Their last title came in 2020-21 under Steven Gerrard when they went the entire league campaign undefeated.
Celtic’s title win last year was their 55th overall, taking them level with Rangers, so if either one is successful this time, they will hold the outright lead for most Scottish top-flight crowns.
However, Hearts winning what would be just their fifth title, and first since 1959-60, would undoubtedly be the biggest shock, and the most significant title win in Scottish football for decades.
Not only would it be the first time any club other than Rangers or Celtic have won the title since Alex Ferguson’s Aberdeen did so in 1984-85, but it would be a phenomenal achievement for Hearts especially considering just five years ago they were in the second tier.
The impact of Tony Bloom since he took over the club in June last year and implemented the same data-led recruitment strategy that has worked a treat at Brighton & Hove Albion in England has been instant, and it could lead to Hearts’ first top-flight title win in 66 years.
They have also undoubtedly been helped by an uncharacteristically wobbly season from Celtic, who are on course to get just 77 points. That would equal their lowest total since the top flight in Scotland went to 12 teams in 2000-01 (level with 77 points in 2020-21). They have won at least 92 points in each of the last four seasons, so this has been quite the drop off.
Rangers started the season with Russell Martin’s difficult and short spell. After five games they remarkably sat in 11th place and were without a win (D4 L1). They have steadied since, and under Danny Rohl, look handily-placed to win their first title in five years. Their fans would certainly enjoy it given the last time their celebrations were dampened by Covid-19 restrictions, with games played behind closed doors.
But who will come out on top? We’ve tasked the Opta supercomputer with revealing the likeliest outcome in the most exciting top-flight title race Scotland has seen in decades.
Who Will Win the Scottish Premiership?
Hearts are top, and Celtic are the defending champions, but it is Rangers who the Opta supercomputer sees as the likeliest winners of this season’s Premiership.
Rohl’s men have only lost twice in the league this season, and that resilience could be enough to see them over the line, despite trailing Hearts by a point. Rangers won the league in 47% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 season simulations.
Celtic still have an ominous feel about them, despite consistently poor performances by their usual high standards. Brendan Rodgers left the club in October, while the short reign of Wilfried Nancy lasted just eight games, which included four defeats in six league outings (W2).
Martin O’Neill is back at the helm and has previous experience of guiding Celtic to title wins, having done so three times in his first spell between 2000 and 2005, but he only did so again in 18% of the supercomputer’s sims.
Those of you with sharp maths brains will have realised this means that Hearts are not only considered likelier than Celtic to win the title, but almost twice as likely.
It would be a phenomenal achievement and story, with all due respect to the two Glasgow clubs, and Hearts took the title back to Edinburgh in 35% of simulations.
We know some people get a little touchy about the supercomputer ‘changing its mind’ – it doesn’t have a mind to change, it’s a computer – but we must of course make clear that these numbers will change depending on results. It will have more data to work with, after all.
So, if any of the three teams drop points this weekend, the outlook will alter, perhaps significantly so.
Who Has the Toughest Run-In?
It’s worth saying that the fixture difficulty for each team during the run-in is likely to be fairly similar, given they all play the same opponents now that the league table has split.
But there are still subtle differences. Our fixture difficulty model looks at the remaining games for each team and using the average Opta Rating of their opponents to see who has the ‘easier’ run-in.
According to that, it is leaders Hearts who have the ‘toughest’ final five games. Obviously, they don’t have to face themselves, so that counts against the leaders somewhat as despite their high placing in the Premiership, they remain below Rangers and Celtic in the Opta Power Rankings. As of 23 April 2026, Hearts are 287th in the world, Celtic are 162nd, and Rangers are 137th.
Derek McInnes’ men have a huge two weeks coming up with the Edinburgh derby on Sunday, before hosting Rangers at Tynecastle. Games at home to Motherwell and Falkirk follow, before what could be a monumental game at Celtic on the final day of the season.
Rangers are deemed to have the kindest set of fixtures. They host Motherwell on Sunday prior to that trip to Hearts. They then have to go across Glasgow to play Celtic in one of the biggest Old Firm derbies in recent memory, before facing Hibs away and Falkirk at home to wrap up the campaign.
Celtic are at home to Falkirk on Saturday, and then travel to Hibernian before that derby at Celtic Park. Their final away game of the season is at Motherwell, and then comes the aforementioned potentially crucial game at home to Hearts on the final day.
In truth, though, the difference is minimal, with just a 0.6 average rating difference between them, and it doesn’t factor in how much trickier games become mentally during a title race.
Expected Points
We’re not sure how Hearts fans will feel about this, but they should be below Hibernian (runs for cover).
That is according to our expected points model, anyway.
Now, we should qualify this by saying that expected points are not the same as actual points. It just means that across thousands of simulations based on expected goals (xG) this season, a team would normally be expected to have won fewer points than Hearts have. Feel free to take it with a pinch or a great big fistful of salt.
Our model simulates the number of goals scored in each match using the xG of every shot. It then simulates the outcome (win/draw/loss) 10,000 times per match. Each team’s expected points are calculated based on how often they win, draw, or lose across those simulations.
It’s not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Nevertheless, it’s still a decent barometer for how teams have performed over the course of a campaign.
Hearts have 70 points, but just 56.7 expected points (xP). That would actually put them in fourth place, just behind rivals Hibs (57.0 points).
Much to the relief of Hearts fans, though, their city rivals have underperformed, sitting on just 51 points and 19 behind the leaders.
Celtic should be top. They have 68.0 xP, so are very close to simply breaking even on their xG, but it doesn’t help them that as well as Hearts overperforming, so are Rangers.
Rangers have just 61.3 xP, so would be in second place in the expected points table regardless, but would be trailing Celtic by over six points in the xP table.
Ultimately, though, expected points don’t matter. Real points do, and whether it’s Hearts, Rangers or Celtic, it promises to be a fascinating end to the campaign in Scotland.
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Scottish Premiership Title Race Predictions: Does the Opta Supercomputer Back Hearts, Rangers, or Celtic? Opta Analyst.
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