Our 2026 NFL mock draft was conducted after thorough video scouting and data analysis. The picks are based on what teams should do in the first round, not necessarily what they will do.
In the last five years, this is the “weirdest” crop of prospects to be a part of our annual NFL mock draft.
What does weirdest mean? Maybe the three best players in this 2026 draft do not play a premium position, and none is likely to be drafted among the first three picks.
Maybe the best edge rusher in this class played more snaps in college at a different position – linebacker – than the position he’s being drafted into.
Maybe the second-best running back in this class is the player who backed up the best running back in this class.
There might only be one quarterback drafted in the first round, and just two years ago, he had a modest 16 touchdown passes for a 6-7 Cal team.
Three safeties are almost certainly being drafted in the first round after there was only one selected there in the last three drafts combined.
Maybe the top wide receiver prospect in this class wasn’t even the best wide receiver on his college team.
This is a fascinating upcoming draft – and, yes, weird.
2026 NFL Draft
Site: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh Rounds: 1 (April 23); 2-3 (April 24); 4-7 (April 25) TV: NFL Network, ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes Streaming: NFL+, Disney+, HuluWe’ve gone through tons of video and even more data to identify team needs, weaknesses and potential best-prospect fits. Kyle Cunningham-Rhoads and Greg Gifford, who have long been immersed in NFL data and predictive analysis for Stats Perform and Opta Analyst, once again joined to help create our first-round mock draft.
There were too many picks to count when we did not feel good about the available talent. It meant personal preferences and individual evaluations were more meaningful than ever. That’s what you’ll see with the fourth pick of our mock.
A reminder, this NFL mock draft is what we think teams should do, not what we necessarily think they will do.
2026 NFL Mock Draft
Picks 1-3
This is pretty much chalk: Indiana’s Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza goes first to the Las Vegas Raiders, who haven’t had a good quarterback since …? Picks 2 and 3 are the top edge rushers in this class. Ohio State’s Arvell Reese goes second to the New York Jets, and the biggest risk is his lack of film at the position he’s being drafted into because the little tape he does have is overwhelming. If Reese has limited tape, Texas Tech’s David Bailey does not, and not only is his tape flashy, but his numbers are eye-popping. He led FBS players in pressure rate (33.5%) – higher than Abdul Carter when the New York Giants drafted him third last year – and goes to the Arizona Cardinals.
Pick 4
Well, we highlighted the concept earlier, but Kyle feels strongly that Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq is the best offensive weapon in this class, and a Tennessee Titans team that needs to surround quarterback Cam Ward with good players and whose best tight end on the depth chart is Gunnar Helm makes Sadiq impossible to pass up. There were 23 FBS tight ends with at least 55 true targets last season, and the athletic marvel was second among that group in both big play percentage and run disruption rate allowed.
Picks 5-10
Ohio State has a chance to be the first team since Michigan State in the 1967 draft to have four selections in the top 10. In our mock, Ohio State’s Sonny Styles at pick 5 and Caleb Downs at 10 both go to the New York Giants. Last season, Styles ranked second among the 50 Power-Four conference linebackers with at least 80 tackles with a 96.5% tackle rate. Downs was first among all safeties with at least 210 pass coverage snaps in both run disruption rate and big play percentage allowed. If those two played even more coveted positions, neither would last this long.
The Cleveland Browns pick sixth, and once again, the main problem on that roster is quarterback. After they did a nice job of patching together a brand-new offensive line during free agency, they nab Utah’s Spencer Fano to be the centerpiece there for the next decade. Jeremiyah Love from Notre Dame is an elite running back prospect (and we love his college backup, Jadarian Price, too). For a Washington Commanders team that just needs to get younger but also has eyes on trying to compete while Jayden Daniels is still on his rookie contract, the potential is too much to pass up Love. Carnell Tate is the fourth of those Ohio State players, and he heads to the New Orleans Saints to team up with another former Buckeyes wide receiver, Chris Olave, to provide Tyler Shough with a strong 1-2 in the passing game. Offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa is the pick for the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9 to replace Jawaan Taylor, and all he did last year was allow the fewest pressures among all 107 FBS tackles who had last least 265 pass protection snaps.
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There are three rock star players, according to our data, in this range. Reuben Bain Jr. is the pick at No. 11, going from the Miami Hurricanes to the Miami Dolphins, and if his arms were an inch longer, he’d have been in contention to go second overall. In fact, no edge player had more pressures this past season. There were 141 FBS cornerbacks with at least 250 snaps in pass coverage in 2025, and none had a lower burn percentage than LSU’s Mansoor Delane. For a weak Dallas Cowboys secondary, picking Delane is a no-brainer. Picking for the Los Angeles Rams is harder than it should be because after shoring up their secondary during free agency, their roster had few holes. We settle on safety Dillon Thieneman from Oregon.
Picks 14-21
Within this range, we end up selecting a bunch of players at premium positions. With the best-of-the-best gone at the other positions, the next-best players at wide receiver and offensive line keep coming to the forefront of our thinking. It starts with Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor, a mammoth offensive lineman who might be best-suited as a guard. For the Baltimore Ravens, a team with a history of having massive guards (see Daniel Faalele), this is a good landing spot. There probably aren’t many coaches under a bigger microscope entering this season than Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles, so giving the Buccaneers an older, ready-to-play-now prospect in Miami (FL) edge rusher Akheem Mesidor is our way of bolstering the position while acknowledging they are in a win-now mode.
Alabama’s 2021 draft class tied 2004 Miami (FL) for the first-round record of six picks, led by wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins, No. 6 overall), shown posing with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. (Research by Stats Perform’s James Costanz)Texas A&M’s KC Concepcion is a data darling with a barely believable 81.6% burn rate (5 percentage points better than anyone else) and happens to be a nice fit alongside Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell for the Jets. The Detroit Lions love offensive linemen, and with Penei Sewell seemingly moving from right tackle to left, drafting Georgia’s Monroe Freeling, who was significantly above average in hurry rate and pressure rate last season, helps replenish a line that has lost a lot of talent in the last couple years. We had USC’s Makai Lemon down for nine true contested catch situations; he came down with the ball in all nine scenarios. He is, as the kids say, an absolute dog, and giving him to coach Kevin O’Connell and the Minnesota Vikings seems like a near-perfect match.
The Carolina Panthers have a pretty good offensive line already, but with question marks surrounding Ikem Ekwonu’s health, it’s an easy decision to give them Lemon’s former USC teammate Caleb Lomu to continue to ensure quarterback Bryce Young had as much protection as possible. With the Cowboys’ second pick of the first round, we think it’s time to address a defensive line that is now without Micah Parsons and Osa Odighizuwa, so Auburn edge Keldric Faulk is the pick. Operating under the theory the Pittsburgh Steelers will go either 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers or Will Howard (?) at quarterback, Penn State’s Olaivavega Ioane makes sense as the clear best true interior offensive lineman in this draft class.
Picks: 22-23
Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr. and Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson are the picks at 22 and 23, respectively – two wide receivers with radically different profiles. Of every FBS WR with at least 40 touches, no one forced more missed or broken tackles than Cooper. In a Mike McDaniel offense, the fit feels perfect for the Los Angeles Chargers. Tyson, meanwhile, had frankly mediocre numbers last season, but he was hurt for most of it. In 2024, his tape and numbers were solid, and his tape shows a very capable outside wide receiver – which the Philadelphia Eagles might be in the market for with A.J. Brown increasingly not expected back.
Picks 24-26
Jermod McCoy didn’t play a snap last season due to an ACL tear, but the Tennessee product might have been the best cornerback in college football in 2024. The Browns defense is good, but it has some cornerback questions opposite Denzel Ward – and with Ward’s health – so McCoy is the pick. We mentioned Caleb Downs’ amazing numbers earlier. If we expanded the pool of players to include all safeties with at least 170 pass coverage snaps, Toledo’s Emmanuel McNeil-Warren would enter the picture with a minuscule 10.9% big play allowed rate – the only safety with a better mark than Downs. For the Chicago Bears, in an NFC North with high octane offenses like the Lions and Green Bay Packers, getting defensive help is a priority. Edge T.J. Parker is the first of a Clemson contingent that in order to draft this high, you must be willing to throw out the 2025 numbers. For the Buffalo Bills, who once again just need anyone who can rush the passer, we’re willing to do that for a player who was seventh in pressures and fifth in quarterback knockdowns in 2024.
Picks 27-32
Trent Williams is 38 years old and in a contract dispute, while Connor Colby was a seventh-round pick last year. Those are the current projected starters for the San Francisco 49ers alongside the left side of their offensive line. Bringing in Max Iheanachor, who hasn’t played football for long to (ideally for Niners fans) sit behind Williams for a year or provide competition for the left guard slot is an easy decision. Peter Woods is another of that Clemson group in which you have to rely on the 2024 numbers. But if the Houston Texans can get that version of Woods into the middle of the defense, they’ll have a player who can immediately become a valuable interior pass rusher to pair with their elite edge players. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes don’t have a player who can climb the ladder and catch a pass, but with Washington’s Denzel Boston (tied for third in the FBS in contested catches, no drops in 2025) still on the board, he feels like an easy fit to team with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
The Dolphins just need talent, and Clemson cornerback Avieon Terrell had a burn rate allowed last year that was 13 percentage points better than the FBS average. The defending AFC champion New England Patriots lost run-stuffing nose tackle Khyiris Tonga in free agency but get a chance to replace him with Ohio State’s Kayden McDonald, whose 29.9% run disruption rate was leaps and bounds ahead of any other FBS defensive tackle with at least 100 run stop opportunities last season. And to round out the first round, we’ve decided to enhance a strength for the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, giving them San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson.
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2026 NFL Mock Draft: Who Each Team Should Pick in the First Round Opta Analyst.
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