A resumption of war between the US, Israel, and Iran could bring the most intense phase of the conflict yet, former defence officials believe.
A two-week ceasefire expires on Tuesday with little sign of a diplomatic breakthrough, amid ongoing military preparations and threats.
Donald Trump told Fox News on Sunday “We are preparing to hit them harder than any country has ever been hit before” and warned “If Iran does not sign this deal, the whole country is getting blown up.”
Michael Mulroy, who was responsible for Middle East policy during Trump’s first term, believes the President is serious about a return to war, which could prove even more devastating than the last round – which resulted in thousands of deaths and destruction across the region.
“If the ceasefire ends and there is not significant progress on an agreement to end the war and enter into a new nuclear agreement, escalation is likely going to happen during the next phase,” he told The i Paper.
The US and Israel have partly achieved their objectives by damaging Iran’s missile and drone programmes, he said, but added that the war would end as a “strategic failure” if Iran retained a stockpile of around 500kg near-weapons grade Highly-Enriched Uranium (HEU), or control of the Strait of Hormuz.
If those issues cannot be resolved through diplomacy, the US is likely to use force, said Mulroy, pointing to the deployment of further military assets to the Gulf region.
Rescue workers in the aftermath of an air strike in Tehran (Photo: Majid Saeedi/Getty)A third aircraft carrier, the USS George HW Bush and thousands of soldiers, will join in the coming days, the Washington Post reported this week, along with an additional Marine Expeditionary Unit, specialised in amphibious special operations.
“Seizing key Iranian terrain with an amphibious and air assault by marines and paratroopers to open the Strait, and securing the HEU by what could be the most complex special operations mission ever are the likely options,” said Mulroy, noting that both moves would carry “serious consequences of further escalation and expansion.”
Trump reportedly pulled back from plans to seize Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminals last month over fears of US casualties, an elevated risk for any land operations.
US troops aboard ships enforcing a blockade of Iranian vessels round the Strait of Hormuz could also be under threat if the truce breaks down. Satellite images show that the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier has travelled to positions within 120 miles of Iran’s southern coast – well within range of anti-ship missiles and drones.
Israel is also preparing for a resumption of hostilities, with Israeli media reporting comments from military officials that Iranian energy sites and infrastructure will be added to the target bank – as Trump has threatened – if the ceasefire breaks down.
Reserve Brigadier General Yaakov Amidror, a former national security advisor to Netanyahu, said power plants are likely to be in the line of fire – despite the impact on civilians that would make such attacks war crimes, according to internal law scholars.
“If no agreement is reached, the US and Israel will have to agree if Iranian energy should be destroyed,” he said. “If the answer is positive, that will make Iran very weak. It won’t matter what the regime will be in Tehran.”
Amidror acknowledged that course of action could leave the world facing a “crisis”, as Iran took aim at energy centres across the region.
A refinery in Iran’s South Pars gas field after it was struck by an Israeli drone in Kangan, in Iran’s Bushehr province (Photo: AP/IRIB)Iran can still call on about 70 per cent of its missiles and 60 per cent of its launchers, the New York Times reported, citing military officials, as well as a vast stockpile of drones.
That firepower could be used to sustain thousands of attacks on the Gulf countries and Israel, including power plants and desalination facilities that much of the region relies on for water. Iran’s speaker of parliament, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, said the regime is prepared for the war to begin at any moment.
Tehran is also threatening to impose another maritime blockade on the Red Sea through Yemeni militant allies, the Houthis, which Gulf countries have been using as an alternative to Hormuz.
The war in Lebanon is also likely to escalate if the ceasefire with Iran breaks down. Israeli troops remain in the south of the country despite the truce and have taken control of dozens of villages that residents are forbidden to return to, implementing a “yellow line” to demarcate occupied territory as it has in Gaza,
Israel says it is continuing to destroy what it called “terror infrastructure” in this area, as well as carrying out attacks on Lebanese militant faction and Iran ally, Hezbollah.
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