Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may be a muscular attempt to force Iran’s hand in seeking a peace deal with Washington but it also dramatically raises the risk of bringing America into conflict with a much bigger adversary – China.
Beijing has largely stood on the sidelines of the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, despite China’s close political and economic ties with Tehran as part of the so-called CRINK anti-Western bloc completed by Russia and North Korea.
But America’s decision to counter Tehran’s own de facto closure of the vital shipping lane with its own blockade, aimed at effectively paralysing the Iranian economy, raises the stakes by putting a question mark over whether Washington is prepared to seize or interdict Chinese imports from its Iranian ally.
Experts and diplomatic sources warn that the result is a dangerous game of brinkmanship where neither side seeks confrontation but the US and China nonetheless run the risk of sparking a conflagration with alarming consequences not only for both countries but also the global economy as a whole.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is the new flashpoint in US-China relations
China is by a considerable margin the world’s biggest importer of oil through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the notorious shipping choke point now under de facto Iranian control as Tehran threatens to attack vessels it perceives to be linked with its enemies.
In the first quarter of last year, Beijing exported 5.4m barrels of oil from the region each day. This is roughly as much as India, Japan and South Korea (all three also big consumers of Gulf oil) combined.
While not all that China-bound oil comes from Iran, Beijing is nonetheless Tehran’s single biggest customer for fuel exports. And this is where the problem lies.
Cargo ships waiting near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran now enjoys more control over the crucial waterway than before the war (Photo: Reuters)On Thursday, America’s most senior soldier, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine, made clear that Washington’s goal was a “blockade of Iran’s ports and coastline”, adding that it “applies to all ships, regardless of nationality, heading into or from Iranian ports”.
This would appear to be a clear American threat to halt, seize or otherwise interdict vessels, including any with a Chinese flag, carrying an Iranian cargo. To emphasise US determination, Pete Hegseth, America’s self-styled secretary of war, said the blockade would remain in place “as long as necessary” to secure a deal with a defiant Iran.
For its part, Beijing has described the US move as a “dangerous and irresponsible act”, which risks undermining an “already fragile ceasefire situation”.
The result, experts warn, is a de facto stand-off between Washington and Beijing as both countries wait to see just how the US blockade will be enforced.
Dr Tom Harper, a lecturer in international relations and a China specialist at the University of East London, said America’s stance had raised tensions in the strait to “new and more perilous levels”.
He said: “For now, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is constrained. But the big issue is the possibility for something major to happen very quickly because China is one of the major nations using the strait. That presents the big question of whether or not the US is willing to actually seize or intervene against Chinese shipping. And that is the point at which things can become much more dangerous, especially should the ceasefire falter.”
How could a conflict erupt?
While neither Washington nor Beijing seem to be seeking a confrontation, diplomatic sources are concerned that the heightened atmosphere could lead to a miscalculation by either side with incendiary consequences.
One avenue open to Beijing could be to dispatch naval vessels from its large military base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa to escort Chinese merchant vessels, a tactic it has deployed in the past to combat piracy.
A Western diplomat told The i Paper: “If you put the world’s two biggest navies in close proximity to each other in a congested space like the Persian Gulf, there is an exponential increase in the risk of a flashpoint incident. All it would take is some sort of collision or an interdiction operation gone wrong for one side or the other, but in particular China, to feel they are under attack.”
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran’s Vanak Square (Photo: AFP)The likelihood of a direct shooting war between Washington and Beijing in the Persian Gulf is regarded as unlikely, not least because China has made strenuous efforts to occupy the political and diplomatic high ground in the conflict by urging a ceasefire and a peace deal in keeping with the United Nations charter.
But experts point out that leaves other options open to China, which American intelligence services believe has already been supplying satellite targeting information to Tehran to facilitate strikes on American bases in the Middle East. There have also been suggestions that Beijing has supplied Iran with shoulder-launched missiles, though China has denied such claims.
Dr Harper points out that while Beijing broadly benefits from a stable Middle East and a global economy where it can exert its advantage in areas such as electric vehicles, it has other tools available.
He said: “There are levers China could pull such as further restricting the supply of rare earth materials which are vital to a lot of the technologies, including weaponry. If you have Western countries which are looking to rearm and spend heavily on defence, that is a tool available [to Beijing]. Chinese retaliation to something happening in the Strait of Hormuz does not have to be direct.”
What steps are Washington and Beijing taking to avoid a clash?
There are signals that both sides are keen to avoid a conflict.
On Wednesday, Trump announced he had struck a side deal with Chinese leader Xi Jinping under which Beijing had agreed not to supply weaponry to Iran. In a typically Trumpian departure from diplomatic norms, the US president said he expected a “big, fat hug” from his Chinese opposite when the pair are expected to meet in Beijing next month.
For its part, China appeared to be taking its own measures to de-escalate tensions – or at least stop them from rising further – when two Chinese vessels passing out of the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday performed U-turns and headed back whence they came, thereby avoiding any potential clash with waiting US naval vessels.
US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth vowed to maintain the US blockade ‘for as long as it takes’ during a press briefing at the Pentagon on Thursday (Photo: Alex Wong/Getty)What remains to be seen is for how long China is willing to remain passive should its shipping be subjected to lengthy, open-ended delays in the Persian Gulf.
Experts point out that Beijing has been conspicuous in wanting to avoid any impression that Iran is acting as a proxy for China’s geopolitical interests in its own rivalry with Washington. As John Fulton, a China expert at the Atlantic Council think-tank, put it: “China is behaving like a normal external power with interests in the region, not like a crisis manager shaping outcomes.”
Neither side seems to believe the Iran conflict is the time or place for a confrontation. Dr Harper said: “I think the consultations between Washington and Beijing show they both realise that a potential clash over [the Strait of Hormuz] could have some very dire consequences.”
In this context it is also worth noting that while China is major economic player in the Persian Gulf, it is not wholly reliant on the region to meets its energy needs.
Beijing is estimated to have sufficient oil reserves to replace its imports through the Strait of Hormuz for seven months and it also has the economic muscle to turn to alternative suppliers, including Russia and Brazil, to offset some or even all of the loss supply.
A boom in electric vehicles, which now account for 50 per cent of all new vehicle sales in China, and burgeoning use of green energy sources such as solar power, also means the country is importing less oil and natural gas.
What would a clash between the US and China mean for the UK?
Britain’s exposure to a crisis in relations between Washington and Beijing would be likely to be felt in three key areas: military risk, economic consequences and a potentially decisive test of its alliance with America.
Should China respond to American action against its interests in the Persian Gulf by deciding to directly supply Iran with weaponry, it is possible such weaponry could be used against British bases and targets in the region.
Secondly, any formal clash between the world’s two biggest economic and military powers would have dire consequences for global supply chains and be likely to usher in a worldwide recession as markets crash and shortages take hold. The International Monetary Fund this week underlined Britain’s exposure to the Iran war, saying it would be the hardest hit of the major world economies, chiefly due to its sensitivity to rising energy prices.
But it is in the realm of geopolitics and the pressure on the UK’s traditional allegiance with America that the impact of a falling out between Washington and Beijing could be most profound.
China’s ground forces take part in long-range live-fire drills targeting waters south of Taiwan in December 2025 (Photo: Reuters)Not so long ago, London’s fealty with the US in such a scenario would have been quasi automatic. But the Trump administration’s growing discontent with its Western allies and the Labour government’s attempts to reboot its own relationship with China in search of economic growth may well have shifted that calculus.
Dr Harper said the sense of “kindred spirit” between Britain and the US has weakened to the extent that London could calculate it would not be in its interests to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Washington in the way it has done for much of the last century.
He said: “Potentially, the pressure might even go the other way because the Trump administration is not particularly popular. The perception could be that siding with them would not really bring much in the way of any sort of political or security gains.”
The diplomatic source added: “Just as the UK has said it wants no part in the US-Israeli offensive campaign against Iran, it is far from inconceivable that it would take a similar stance if America and China were at loggerheads. Increasingly, there is little in it for middle European powers in inserting themselves into such a conflict.”
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