“I think it’s an entirely different series than the past two we’ve had.”
That was David Adelman on Thursday, two days before the Denver Nuggets take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons.
The first time, the Nuggets treated the Timberwolves like a stepping stone on their way to the first championship in franchise history.
The next year, the Timberwolves earned some revenge in a seven-game series that left some real scars on the Nuggets organization and fan base.
Two seasons later, the Nuggets are hoping to make amends, but it won’t be easy.
Let’s break down what happens when the Nuggets have the ball, when the Timberwolves have the ball, X-Factors for both sides, and offer a series prediction.
When Denver has the ball
Everything starts with a full court press.
Back in the 2022-23 season, a little known guard named Nickeil Alexander-Walker earned some serious credit around the league for how he absolutely hounded Jamal Murray up and down the floor defensively. NAW went on to have a major impact in the next series in wearing down Murray again, earning a larger contract with the Atlanta Hawks a year later.
He’s no longer in Minnesota, but the established precedent remains. Every team pressures Murray full court now. He’s grown accustomed to it, but it wears on him, and the best way to attack the Nuggets stars has always been to tire them out and annoy them into mistakes.
Mid-season, the T’Wolves acquired Ayo Dosunmu, a great approximation of NAW in a lot of ways. He’s technical as a defender and willing to work hard, though his physical tools and wingspan are less impactful than NAW.
Dosunmu won’t be the only player to go after Murray though. Expect everyone in the Minnesota backcourt to take a turn, which means the Nuggets have to have release valves on the floor. Often, it’s Aaron Gordon or Nikola Jokic, and the Nuggets are alright with basically anyone initiating their offense as long as they can get the ball to Jokic at the top of the key or the elbow extended.
Murray cannot be prideful here. He has to give the ball up and allow others to initiate at times. He will get it back in a better position to score and create more often than not.
Before getting into the halfcourt stuff, a quick note on the difference between halfcourt and transition: the Nuggets have the top ranked halfcourt offense per possession on Cleaning the Glass at a 105.7 offensive rating. That’s great. It also pales in comparison to their fifth ranked points per transition possession mark at a 131.2 points per halfcourt play. That’s ridiculous. If the Nuggets can consistently run after misses and forced turnovers consistently, they will win this series.
Because the T’Wolves are sixth in points per play allowed in the halfcourt and 16th in points per play allowed in transition. Run. Run harder. Don’t let Minnesota set their defense if it can be helped. Interestingly, when Jokic is on the floor, their frequency of possessions in transition greatly increases. The hit-ahead passes, as long as they’re made with intention, are a weapon against teams that will surely be game planning against those tendencies.
Now, when the Nuggets get into their offense in the halfcourt, they’re amazing for halfcourt basketball. They also rely very heavily on Jokic and Murray to do Jokic and Murray things, creating good shots for themselves and others throughout the game. When Denver doesn’t have those guys as initiators, the offense becomes fairly stagnant and predictable.
So, expect Jokic and Murray to stagger consistently. The Nuggets will close first and third quarters with Jokic and start second and fourth quarters with Murray more often than not.
That does take away from Denver’s best offense though, and that’s Jokic and Murray together. When they share the floor, the Nuggets have a 130.6 offensive rating on Cleaning the Glass. That ranks in the 100th percentile among duos, one of the very best in the NBA if not the best.
The T’Wolves will vary their coverages consistently as well as their matchups. Expect Anthony Edwards to start out guarding Murray, but Jaden McDaniels, Donte Dinvincenzo, the aforementioned Dosunmu, and others will have an opportunity.
Rudy Gobert will spend plenty of time on Jokic, but when it’s not Gobert, things get very complicated very quickly. Minnesota will often play a high drop coverage in these situations against Murray and Jokic so that Gobert can stay attached to Jokic. That’s pretty simple to understand. When it’s Randle guarding Jokic in that pick and roll, expect the T’Wolves to either blitz or switch those actions outright, meaning there are mismatches all over the floor but a slowed down Nuggets offense still trying to generate an open shot.
“We worked on it last year, but game reps are irreplaceable, and we found some things that we feel comfortable doing,” David Adelman emphasized on the Nuggets seeing non-centers guarding Jokic more frequently. “Honestly, I could see [Jaden] McDaniels guarding him.”
The Nuggets will spend a lot of time posting up Jokic when he has a smaller player on him. That allows him to catch the ball with an opportunity to make a quick move to score or pass. The Wolves didn’t defend Jokic well in these switch situations this year with him scoring very well whenever he got a paint touch in the earlier matchups.
“Just play smart, play hard,” Aaron Gordon shared of how the Nuggets will approach different defensive looks the Nuggets throw at Denver.
“It doesn’t really matter what defensive scheme they put on us.”
If Gobert is consistently in Jokic’s vicinity in those situations, there’s someone open on the perimeter. It’s likely Christian Braun, who the Wolves will dare to shoot in this series and force him to take and make open threes consistently. In the last three seasons, Braun is shooting just 27-of-98 from three (27.6%) in his playoff career. If there’s a pressure point for the Nuggets, it’s Braun, whose confidence and explosiveness as a driver to the paint has suffered a bit since suffering the ankle injury earlier this season. Hitting three-pointers will be paramount for several reasons.
Expect the Nuggets to consistently work for the open shot often with Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, and Julian Strawther likely to play bench roles early in this series. Add in Cam Johnson and Aaron Gordon and the Nuggets have a ton of confidence in their shooting talent around their core this season. Peyton Watson and Spencer Jones coming back from injury is a wildcard, but this Nuggets group is very good and very patient about generating open threes.
“I think we’ve just got to pick and choose our spots wisely and take great shots,” Hardaway Jr. shared at practice on Thursday. “We know they’re very capable of scrambling, doing a great job of playing mismatches, and turning our mistakes into offense. So we’ve got to do a great job limiting our turnovers and just play controlled basketball.”
If the Nuggets complementary players consistently hit open shots, creating offense in the middle of the floor becomes easier for Jokic and Murray. It also might disrupt Minnesota’s preferred defensive coverage of using Gobert as a defensive roamer if there’s only three-point shooters out there for him to guard.
When Minnesota has the ball
This section will be shorter because it’s fairly straightforward: the Nuggets were a subpar defense for much of the season. Here were Denver’s defensive rating ranks by month:
October – 4th (5 games) November – 18th December – 25th January – 24th February – 14th March – 18th April – 18thDenver’s defense was a bit better post All-Star break than many realize, but there were still major holes in the defense at times. Specifically, the Nuggets struggled against on-ball guards that could get downhill and create off the dribble. They also struggled against teams that could properly space the floor.
Minnesota can do that…kind of. The Wolves had the sixth highest three-point percentage among NBA teams last year. Between Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, and Bones Hyland, the Wolves have plenty of threats from the perimeter. Surrounding Gobert as a screener in the middle of the floor with the highest field goal percentage in the NBA due to shot selection, the Wolves have a fairly efficient offense.
Denver’s biggest defensive weakness is also Minnesota’s biggest offensive weakness though: forced turnovers. The Nuggets are worst team in opponent turnover rate in the NBA, and the Wolves offense is liable to turn the ball over in bunches. They’ve improved in that category over previous years, but it’s still a pressure point. In games when the Wolves commit at least 15 turnovers, they have a 22-20 record. They’re 27-13 in games when they have 14 or fewer.
The Nuggets are 15-4 when they force 15+ turnovers in a game. They’re 17-6 in games when they win the turnover battle and total three-point margin.
So, what do the Nuggets have to do? Get aggressive and scramble.
Denver often plays a blitzing coverage against elite ball handlers like Anthony Edwards. He’s so dangerous that allowing him opportunities against drop coverage allows him to get into an easy rhythm. Jokic and Denver also aren’t good in drop coverage, so it’s best to be aggressive and try to get the ball out of Edwards’ hands anyway.
That’s where the back side rotations come into play. The Nuggets will blitz Edwards in lineups that feature Gobert. Even when Julius Randle or Naz Reid plays center, they will probably blitz Edwards anyway to disrupt his rhythm and get the ball out of his hands. That ball will go somewhere though, and the Nuggets can’t let the Wolves find elite shooters in rhythm consistently. That’s an easy way to allow 120+ points, and there are enough shooters in Minnesota to second guess whether blitzing Edwards and forcing rotations is the right call.
It IS the right call…if the Nuggets rotations and ensuing scramble is good. Often times, the Nuggets will make good rotations initially, force a drive to the paint, only for Jokic to concede the layup or for the weak side defenders to fall asleep on back cuts and relocation threes. These are details the Nuggets must iron out in the playoffs.
“I think the level of focus intensifies,” Gordon said of what changes for Denver once the playoffs arrive. “I’d say our attention to detail is a lot higher.”
Not having Watson or Jones initially would be a big deal in these scramble situations. Both players are very helpful defenders in that their effort, recovery time, and length helps to make some of these situations more difficult for the opposition.
That puts a lot of pressure on Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, and Jamal Murray especially. Jokic’s job in Denver’s defense is to stay home and for everyone around him to scramble. It’s a tall task, made more difficult when an opposition has the opportunity to scout Denver’s tendencies and create open shots through manipulation of defensive coverage. Can Denver’s preparation prevent that? Can the Nuggets minimize the number of open shots the Timberwolves get?
Finally, if either Jokic or Valanciunas are on the floor, the Nuggets should have a significant defensive rebounding advantage. If Denver can limit Minnesota to one possession, that will help on the margins. They have to force misses though, which is easier said than done against a confident Minnesota squad.
X-Factors
Christian Braun – How healthy is he? Can he slow down Edwards at all without the Nuggets sending help in blitz coverage? What happens when the Wolves put Gobert on him and allow Braun to shoot at will? How does he handle that psychological pressure this time around? Jaden McDaniels – What kind of defensive impact can he make against either of Murray or Jokic? Can he generate the same easy offense he was able to in 2024 vs Michael Porter Jr.? When the Nuggets go small (and they will frequently with Watson/Jones sidelined) will McDaniels be a candidate to score a crooked number in a situation where the Nuggets can’t afford him to score more than 15 a night? Aaron Gordon – Gordon is the only Nugget that can handle Julius Randle physically. That’s going to take a toll and wear on him though. Can Gordon win that matchup consistently in this series? When Randle guards Jokic and Gobert guards Gordon, can Gordon make the Wolves pay for that this time around? Ayo Dosunmu – Averaged 14.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game in 29 minutes a night after the trade from Chicago. Is this new era Nickeil Alexander-Walker? Is this a player that can make Jamal Murray struggle a bit? Is the 41.4% three-point shooting about to translate to the playoffs too?Prediction – Nuggets in 6
The Nuggets are better prepared for this series than they were in 2024; however, the Wolves haven’t lost in the first round since the Nuggets title run, and both teams are drastically different. There are plenty of guys who can step up for Minnesota and make an impact. Can they do so consistently? That’s the big question.
Denver’s expecting consistency from their star duo of Jokic and Murray. Both are rolling heading into the playoffs, and both understand what’s it’s going to take to navigate the challenges this Wolves team offers. Denver’s offense has enough shooting, especially if Braun hits his open jumpers, to take advantage of the defensive coverages Minnesota can throw their way.
Can the Nuggets get enough stops to make their offense worthwhile? I think so. The difference in attention to detail from the regular season to the playoffs is drastic. The Nuggets’ issues defensively were often about reaction time and effort, not because they were capable of making the right plays. Now that the playoffs are here, the effort will ramp up, the scouting reports will be read, and the film will be watched.
If the Nuggets are serious about winning a championship, their preparation will set the table for them to succeed in this first round. It’s not a guarantee, but with Jokic and Murray playing some of the best basketball of their careers, it gives a lot of confidence to everyone in that locker room.
I have the Nuggets winning in six games. It could be more. It could be fewer. This series isn’t guaranteed, but it has a great chance to tilt in Denver’s favor if they’re intentional from start to finish.
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