Military leaders have warned that the UK and Europe could face war with Russia within the next four years, but the Armed Forces are grappling with an estimated £28 bn shortfall.
With Vladimir Putin’s regime conducting “grey warfare” through targeting underwater cables and critical infrastructure it has been argued that Britain is already in the foothills of a full-blown conflict.
Repeated alarm bells have been rung about the military’s capabilities, with ex-Nato chief and former defence secretary Lord Robertson warning this week that Britain is underprepared for war due to the “ever-expanding welfare budget” and “corrosive complacency” from Sir Keir Starmer’s Government.
How could a hot war with Russia play out in the UK and how ready is the country?
Grey war
Moscow is already mounting hybrid attacks across Europe, targeting underwater cables and wind farms, with the Royal Navy and the RAF carrying out patrols in UK waters and skies to deter Russian aggression.
The latest incursions were revealed since last week, with the navy tracking three Russian submarines which loitered over key undersea cables and pipelines in the North Atlantic for a month before retreating.
Black Sea fleet frigate Admiral Grigorovich also accompanied two shadow fleet vessels along England’s southern coast while Royal Fleet Auxiliary tanker Tideforce followed behind.
This week, RAF fighter jets were scrambled over concerns a suspected long-range Russian bomber was nearing British airspace.
In another strand of the Kremlin’s grey warfare, Russian hackers have carried out cyber attacks on major NHS London hospitals.
Drone incursions near RAF bases and a Russian-ordered arson attack on a London warehouse by six British members of the Wagner group are further proof the UK is already engaged in a proxy war with the Kremlin.
Escalation
Potential scenarios in which the UK could move from grey warfare to a hot conflict include Russia launching a missile – accidentally or otherwise – at a Nato ally in the Baltics, Nordics or Eastern Europe.
But Keir Giles, a Russia expert from think-tank Chatham House, said Putin would not be ordering amphibious landings on the White Cliffs of Dover or dropping Russian paratroopers over the home counties.
“Everybody knows that there is not a direct, close range threat from Russia to the UK, so it’s not going to be a land invasion,” he told The i Paper.
“But that still allows Russia plenty of different means by which they could cause life in the UK to grind to a halt – not necessarily ballistic missiles, even, but cruise missiles launched from thousands of kilometers away, drones that are delivered into the UK and then launched locally.”
Russia’s kilo-class submarine Krasnodar at sea. Britain said last week it had tracked and deterred three Russian submarines on an alleged month-long covert operation in UK waters (Photo: Royal Navy/AFP via Getty)For the past 20 years, Russian bomber pilots have been mounting practice runs for attacks on Western Europe, flying around the north of Norway from bases in the Arctic, he added.
“As soon as they’re in the Norwegian Sea, most of Western Europe is within range of those ultra-long range missiles,” he said.
An attack from the north was most likely, said Hamish Mundell, a military sciences expert formerly at the think-tank Rusi, with Russia’s navy, submarines and bomber force unleashing cruise missiles and the Royal Navy’s carrier strike group of warships and fighter jets deployed to the North Sea.
But the likelihood of such a direct attack on the UK at the start of a conflict was unlikely, he said, and would come with “immense attrition” for Russia.
“A lot of the strategic bombers they would need to use to fire the cruise missile salvos they’d want to get to target our military infrastructure, they would not all be returning home,” he said.
He added that Britain’s ballistic missile defence was limited to Type 45 destoyers, which are armed with Aster 30 surface-to-air missiles.
UK military assets and vital civilian infrastructure would be among targets Russia may choose, with Lord Toby Harris, chair of the National Preparedness Commission, warning data centres and industrial plants are potentially vulnerable.
He said: “How quickly one would see a hot war affecting the UK mainland immediately, I think, is obviously an open question.
“But what is also clear is that we have a vulnerability in terms of if we were subjected to the sort of drone attacks that we’ve seen in Ukraine and elsewhere or in the Middle East.”
Armed Forces engaged
If Britain were at war with Russia it would almost certainly be alongside Nato allies after an attack on a coalition member triggered Article 5.
But gaps in the Armed Forces’ war-preparedness have been repeatedly highlighted, with the size of the Army dwindling from 155,000 troops in 1991 at the end of the Cold War to around 75,000 troops last year.
Former head of the Royal Navy Lord West this week called on military and defence industries to be put on a war footing and said the UK had fallen behind in the ability to track Russian submarines off its coast compared to the Cold War.
The Government faced accusations of not responding to the crisis in the Middle East quickly enough, with HMS Dragon, the Type 45 destroyer belatedly sent to provide air cover for Cyprus after RAF Akrotiri was hit by a drone.
HMS Dragon sets sail from Portsmouth Harbour for Cyprus (Photo: Leon Neal/ Getty)Giles also questioned the navy’s ability to secure sea lanes in the event of a Russian attack.
“The atrophy of the Royal Navy that has been permitted over the last 30 years has left it unarguably inadequate for the tasks that are being set for it by political leaders,” he said.
“The United Kingdom has a commitment to actually reinforce Nato and Europe if it is under challenge, but again, reinforce with what is a good question.”
Civilians scrambled
Lord Toby Harris warned that the UK is a long way behind other countries’ plans to prepare the public for war.
In Sweden, for example, every household receives a booklet listing practical steps to take in the event of war, such as stocking up on food and water.
“The Government has issued guidance. It’s available on the gov.uk Prepare website, but most people, frankly, are unlikely to have stumbled across that,” said Lord Harris.
“Why not disseminate that in a variety of different ways, so that people are aware of what’s there and what’s involved?”
He also said the Government should consider developing a volunteer database of civilians with certain skills which could usefully be deployed in the event of emergencies such as war.
Giles said: “In Sweden, in Japan, in the frontline states, there’s a lot of detail about how the state is actually going to support people in a crisis, how they’re going to help them by keeping them alive, evacuated, providing shelter and so on.
“All of that is completely absent from the equivalent British pages, because there is no civil defense system, and that too makes the UK a more attractive target for Russia.”
Battling misinformation
Giles also highlighted Ukraine taking steps to protect itself against Russian information warfare in the lead-up to the 2022 full-scale invasion that were “way beyond” anything considered in the UK.
“Like safeguarding data, like interdicting the mouthpieces for Russia that operate as useful idiots or agents of influence,” he said.
“All of these things have started in most of the countries that are alongside Russia, but there’s only been very fitful moves towards it in the UK.
“For example, using the new new-ish National Security Act to target those people that are spreading Russian propaganda, or indeed directly attempting to influence British policy on behalf of Moscow.”
Dad’s Army
In 2024, former head of the Army, General Sir Patrick Sanders, called on the UK to train “a citizen army” to fight a land war.
Hamish Mundell believes while civilians could be called on to guard critical infrastructure, the mobilisation of a “dad’s army’” was unlikely to be required.
He said: “There is no significant plans for conscription. The British Army does not foresee themselves having a problem with trying to bring in soldier manpower, as in trying to get people into uniform.”
But Giles said: “Civilians are going to be involved, whether they like it or not, because Russia’s way of war involves the whole of society, not just the Armed Forces.
A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “National security is our first duty, and we have the resources we need to keep the United Kingdom safe from attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad.
“We’re constantly hardening and sharpening our approach to homeland security, backed by the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War, making the UK well able to respond to the threats we face.
“Through the Strategic Defence Review we are creating a new hybrid navy by building world-class submarines and cutting-edge warships, alongside transforming our aircraft carriers and introducing new autonomous vessels to patrol the North Atlantic and beyond.”
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