Teams in the NBA playoffs always need X-factors to help get them over the top in a series. We dive into who could be those players in the first round.
The NBA has been a star-driven league for a long time, but come the playoffs, X-factors are always key.
A team often goes only as far as the best players can carry it, but what makes the NBA playoffs particularly fun is when someone else swings a series – specifically a less-talked-about role player.
The playoffs will begin with 16 teams fighting for the chance to advance to the conference semifinals. Following is an X-factor in each of the eight series who could ultimately write the story of the first round (the final two qualifiers from the NBA Play-in Tournament will be determined Friday night).
Opta win probabilities update throughout the first round and the playoffs, and can be found on our NBA predictions page.
X-Factors in NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conference
No. 1 Detroit Pistons (62-20) vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic (45-37)/Charlotte Hornets (44-38)
X-Factor: Duncan Robinson, Pistons
Detroit’s opponent will surely make it a priority to seek Robinson when it has the ball. Of the 13 Pistons who logged at least 500 minutes in the regular season, Robinson (whose 2,111 minutes were the second most on the team) ranks last in our D-DRIP metric (which projects a player’s contribution to a team’s plus/minus per 100 possessions).
The thing is, the Pistons need Robinson to stay on the floor. He’s a part of their four best lineups in terms of total plus/minus, and Detroit desperately needs the shooting and spacing that he offers (41% on 3-pointers with seven attempts per game).
If Robinson gets played off the floor, will the Pistons defense (second in D-TRACR) be stout enough to make up for the team’s gunky half-court offense? If not, we may be in for one of the bigger upsets in playoff history.
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2 years ago Opta AnalystNo. 2 Boston Celtics (56-26) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers (45-37)
X-Factor: Paul George, Sixers
The Sixers are overmatched by every stretch imaginable. All season long, they’ve been terrible against top-end teams, and the Celtics are one of the league’s fiercest canines (fourth in TRACR). The underdog can’t expect a well-coached opponent to give it the series, it has to take momentum. Such an upset here would have George’s fingerprints all over it.
George is no longer the All-NBA two-way forward of his glory days, and his last two seasons have been marred by injuries and inconsistencies. But even in his diminished state, he impacts winning. Among healthy players on the Sixers roster, George is the team leader in on-off net rating (the team’s points scored vs. allowed per 100 possessions relative to a specific player on the court).
George has to be at his best for the Sixers to win the series. He’s their only forward who is big enough to bother Celtics stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, formidable enough from 3-point range to really extend defenses (hitting 39.2% of his 6.9 3-point attempts per game) and efficient enough to score off the dribble (62nd percentile on midrange efficiency).
No. 3 New York Knicks (53-29) vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks (46-36)
X-Factor: Mitchell Robinson, Knicks
These two teams are more evenly matched than you think.
The Hawks have been a different team since finding their perfect starting five: With CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu on the floor together, they’re +170 in plus/minus. They also finished the regular season winning 19 of 24 games, although the Knicks ended with an 18-8 stretch.
The Hawks are fast, long and athletic – with a lot of different ways to counter the Knicks. But one thing they have no answer for is Robinson, a sheer interior force.
The Knicks’ 7-foot, 240-pound center is just bigger than what’s in Atlanta’s rotation. He’s tied for the best offensive rebounding rate (with Houston’s Steven Adams) in the league, and his block rate is in the 96th percentile. In his two games against the Hawks this season, the Knicks are +14 in his minutes.
Notice those are the games he’s played in (the Knicks actually won the season series 2-1). Durability has long been an issue for Robinson. This season, he played in only 60 games, averaging 19.6 minutes.
How much can New York lean on him? Also, how many free throws (40.8%) can he hit to avoid being taken off the floor?
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30) vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors (46-36)
X-Factor: Immanuel Quickley, Raptors
Like the Sixers, the Raptors have struggled against top-10 teams in TRACR (the Cavaliers are 10th). The reason for this is they aren’t a good offensive team (15th in O-TRACR).
Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Collin Murray-Boyles can’t really space the floor. As a team, they’re 26th in 3-point attempts per game.
That’s why they need Quickley, who has nursed a mild hamstring strain, healthy and ready to go. He’s the team leader in O-DRIP and their best volume 3-point shooter (37.4% on 6.8 attempts per game). He also isn’t a slouch on defense (72nd percentile in D-DRIP).
Simply put, Quickley is the connector whom the Raptors need to space the floor so their other players have room to operate on the inside.
X-Factors in NBA Playoffs: Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) vs. No. 8 Phoenix Suns (45-37)/Golden State Warriors (37-45)
X-Factor: Jalen Williams, Thunder
Let’s be real: It’s very unlikely OKC gets upset in the first round (our prediction model says about a 10.2% chance).
What you really need to pay attention to is Williams’ status. After being the Thunder’s second-best player during their NBA championship run last season, the 6-5 small forward has struggled to stay healthy this season, appearing in just 33 games. His scoring and efficiency are also well below his marks from the last two seasons.
Can Williams rekindle his old groove in this warmup matchup?
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs. No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers (42-20)
X-Factor: Jerami Grant, Trail Blazers
The Spurs are one of the favorites to take home the NBA title (a 13.6% chance, which is third-best), headlined, of course, by prodigious big man Victor Wembanyama.
At just 22, Wembanyama is already the best defensive player in the league, ranking first in D-DRIP and block rate.
At the end of Portland’s Play-In Tournament victory over Phoenix, the paint became much more open when Grant was playing the small-ball 5 spot. After he checked in for Donovan Clingan with 3:17 remaining, the Blazers scored 15 points.
Grant may be the key to mitigating Wembanyama’s defensive impact. With the ball in Deni Avdija’s hands and Grant, Jrue Holiday, Toumani Camara and Shaedan Sharpe all on the floor (they’re +11 in 45 minutes shared together), the Trail Blazers could theoretically have enough spacing to keep the Spurs’ 7-3 star out of the paint, and, in turn, steal the series.
No. 3 Denver Nuggets (54-28) vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
X-Factor: Julius Randle, Timberwolves
The last time these two teams met in the playoffs (2024 Western Conference semifinals), the Timberwolves beat the Nuggets in a thrilling seven-game series. While he isn’t known for his defense, then-Wolves center Karl-Anthony Towns made life difficult on Nuggets star Nikola Jokic, which let Rudy Gobert lurk around the paint as a huge factor in the series’ outcome.
According to NBA.com’s matchup data, Jokic shot just 43.6% on his shots from the floor when he was defended by Towns in that series (14.7% below his average from that regular season).
Now, Towns is out, and Randle is in. It’s up to him to fill that role this go-around.
Randle’s wingspan is three inches shorter than Towns, so he isn’t as uniquely equipped to stymie him. But can he use his brute strength to chip away at the three-time NBA MVP’s value just enough to pull this one out? And can he do that while restraining himself from shooting the T-wolves out of the series?
No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers (53-29) vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets (52-30)
X-Factor: Luke Kennard, Lakers
The scenario in this first-round series is pretty simple: Without guards Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves for (probably) the entire series, the Lakers are facing an uphill fight that you usually don’t see from a team with home-court advantage.
Kennard is one of the NBA’s best shooters, leading the league in 3-point% (47.8% on 117 of 245) for players with as few as 26 attempts.
Great shooters have the ability to swing games all on their own. Maybe Kennard can swing enough games to help the Lakers pull an upset as the No. 4 seed.
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X-Factors: These 8 Players Could Determine the First Round of the NBA Playoffs Opta Analyst.
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