The UK’s ability to defend itself and its allies is facing mounting scrutiny, as concerns grow over dwindling military resources, an ageing workforce, and a lack of plan to invest in the military.
As tensions across the globe ramp up, and Russia’s military threat sails past UK shores, Britain’s defences are entering a period of heightened vulnerability.
Those concerns will be laid bare by a former Nato secretary general and author of the UK’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR) in a speech on Tuesday.
Lord George Robertson, the former Labour defence secretary, will say the UK’s security is “in peril” and accuse Downing Street of showing “corrosive complacency” towards defence.
While the SDR was delivered in June last year, the plan to fund it has failed to materialise. Roberston’s review found that the UK would need to spend about £68bn on defence and increase personnel by 100,000 to prepare UK Armed Forces for modern warfare.
However, Internal spats between the Ministry of Defence and Treasury have delayed the release of the defence investment plan (DIP), leading to Lord Robertson’s assessment in the Financial Times that Sir Keir Starmer was “not willing to make the necessary investment”.
A senior Ministry of Defence official told The i Paper the situation was “properly nuts” but said the military will just have to make do with what it has. “If the Army has bent guns, it’ll go to war with bent guns,” they said.
While Whitehall continues to hash out the details of the DIP, and how to fill a reported £28bn black hole in defence funding, adversaries are increasing their own military spending. The delay is causing backlogs, leading to concerns that the UK lacks the people, technology, or equipment needed to respond effectively to modern threats.
UK military programmes stalled
A number of key projects, designed to enhance the UK’s warfighting readiness have faced significant delays caused by a lack of understanding about how they are going to be funded.
The development of military technology, intended to form the backbone of Britain’s future land warfare capability, has been put on pause after ongoing issues with development, cost and timeline overuns. have left the Army in a state of limbo.
Royal Navy patrol ship HMS Tyne follows the sanctioned Russian Ropucha-class warship, Aleksandr Shabalin, and cargo vessel MV Sabetta as they sailed westward through the English Channel (Photo: MOD/PA)A $6.2bn project to develop Ajax armoured vehicles has been crippled by failures after dozens of troops were hospitalised after using them. The project came as the third blow to the UK’s armoured vehicle capability, after programmed to develop the Challenger 3 battle tank, and Boxer armoured troop car were delayed.
Similar delays have hampered Britain’s capability in the skies, raising concerns about the UK’s ability to coordinate and manage airspace in times of crisis. The Royal Air Force’s Wedgetail airborne early-warning aircraft programme, a fleet of aircraft fitted with advanced radar and communication technologies to support live operations, is running significantly behind schedule.
National Armaments Director Rupert Pearce told the Defence Select Committee last month that Boeing, contracted to deliver the programme, was a “troubled partner,” and said “a much higher level of scrutiny of the certification process inside Boeing” had caused delays.
At the start of April, Britain signed the next phase of the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), a multinational effort to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter known as Tempest – though it has only committed to three months, to give time to free up more funding.
The landmark effort aims to put next-generation fighters in the skies by 2035 in a joint partnership with Japan and Italy, but a series of delays to the DIP is said to be preventing the signing of contracts for the design and development work on the project.
Navy warships don’t work
Once a cornerstone of British power projection, the UK’s Royal Navy fleet has been hamstrung by reapirs and delays, reducing it to a small number of operational vessels.
Currently, only seven destroyers and frigates are considered fully functional. Plans to modernise the fleet through the introduction of new Type 26 “City Class” frigates this year were pushed back by a year, adding £233m to the overall budget.
An Anafi Parrot quadcopter, launched from HMS Dagger by members of the Royal Navy Gibraltar Squadron, has been used to monitor and safeguard visits to the overseas territory by major UK warships (Photo: MOD)Further complications were caused by Norway’s £10bn purchase of two Type 26 frigates, dubbed the workhorses of the warship fleet, sparking fears of further strain on British shipyards, though it is intended to be managed by building both navies’ ships simultaneously.
The Navy’s weakened position was signified last month after the deployment of Britain’s Type 45, HMS Dragon, to the Middle East was marred by technical difficulties. Having been rushed to the region after RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus, faced attacks from Iran, she was forced to dock after the ship’s onboard water supply system failed.
Vladimir Putin has continued to test British capability at sea, and capitalise on the UK’s distraction in the Middle East. This year over 300 sanctioned Russian tankers, accused of fuelling Moscow’s war in Ukraine, have passed through the Channel, while four Russian naval vessels probed undersea cables last week.
On Monday, The i Paper revealed a further Russian naval vessel was monitored by RAF aircraft while it loitered near offshore UK windfarms.
No missile defences
While the UK possesses sophisticated systems to detect incoming missile threats, it lacks a comprehensive ground-based air defence network capable of intercepting them. In practical terms, that means Britain could identify a missile attack, but it could have limited means to stop it.
The UK relies on a mix of sea-based air defence, allied partnerships and early warning systems based out of RAF Fylingdales in North Yorkshire, rather than a comprehensive ground-based missile shield.
The Government has insisted that Britain is adequately protected. A Ministry of Defence spokesperson previously said: “We have the resources we need to keep the United Kingdom safe from any kind of attacks, whether it’s on our soil or from abroad. The UK stands ready 24/7 to defend itself.”
But critics have claimed that years of under-investment in air defence has left the country badly exposed.
A CGI image of the Tempest design, described as the next supersonic stealth fighter, being developed under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) (Photo: BAE Systems/SWNS)A 2024 paper by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change quoted unnamed Nato officials as saying that the alliance “currently has fewer than five per cent of the air defence capabilities necessary to protect central and eastern Europe against a full-scale attack”.
Defence Minister Lord Coaker confirmed last week that the UK government is considering further investment in air and missile defence capabilities, including specific protections of cities and critical infrastructure.
Responding to a written question from Green Party peer Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle, Coaker said that “a range of air and missile defence capabilities are under consideration within the Defence Investment Plan,” suggesting that any future decisions hinge on the DIP’s long-awaited release.
Aging troops
The military has faced an embattled task to recruit and retain personnel in recent years, having shrunk from more than 100,000 personnel in 2010 to just over 70,000 now.
While recent figures offer a glimmer of hope, the number of boots on the grounds remains its lowest for the UK in decades.
In a bid to increase workforce numbers, the MOD has attempted to increase its strategic military reserve by raising the maximum recall age for veterans from 55 to 65, effective from next year. ,
The move forms part of the Armed Forces Bill and aims to engage more individuals into the reserve forces. There are around 32,000 active reservists across the three wings of the Armed Forces.
Why this puts UK in danger
The geopolitical backdrop of Whitehall’s current indecsion and delay, increases the urgency for action. Adversaries are becoming increasingly assertive on the world stage, while wars in Ukraine and Iran threaten plummeting the UK into long-term direct conflicts.
Gaps in capability can carry significant consequences. A shortage of ships limits maritime surveillance and deterrence. Delays in armoured vehicles weaken ground readiness. A lack of missile defence exposes the homeland. And an aging, understaffed military raises questions about sustainability during a prolonged crisis.
Lord Robertson’s warning will be difficult for Downing Street to ignore. While officials wrangle over political will and financial commitment, Britain’s once formidable defences appear to be withering at a moment when we need them most.
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