In the wake of the failed peace talks in Islamabad, President Donald Trump appears to be doing his best to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and a flashpoint for the next round of battle between the US and Iran.
Opening the Strait to free navigation in accordance with the Law of the Sea, not to say all normal practice of international trade relations, is now an urgent priority – and Europe, partners in the Gulf Co-operation Council and Britain must take a lead role.
This means the British Government must clean up its act on defence and security, and not lean on others to help with basic military tasks. A working coalition must aim to get the Strait of Hormuz open within weeks, before the shortage of hydrocarbons, fertilisers and other strategic products worsens.
The first task is to unscramble the tangle over Hormuz. A close second is the need to unscramble the muddle of Trump’s Iran war strategy – made confusing by the verbal spaghetti of his tweets and ad lib remarks about the need for war, peace, off-ramps and doubling down – sometimes in the space of the same paragraph.
Unscrambling the mind of Donald Trump is primarily a job for American politics, and the American people. Unscrambling the confrontation with Iran is the business of the rest of the world.
France, Germany and Italy should arrange with allies in Europe and the Gulf how to clear and secure the sea lanes in the region, including the Red Sea, as soon as possible. This would need an immediate, straightforward maritime armistice with Iran, which would also benefit with an allowance of its own traffic to proceed through to the Indian Ocean. Much the same deal should be done for the Bab el-Mandeb at the neck of the Red Sea, under threat now from attack by Iran’s proxy allies, the Houthis.
This would mean contributing a flotilla of naval escorts and minehunters – a department at which the Royal Navy excelled, but is now pretty bereft, despite Defence Secretary John Healey’s boasts about having unmanned systems in place in the region. Freedom of the seas in the Hormuz Strait, or anywhere else for that matter, cannot be maintained by robots alone.
Trump’s plan for a capriciously selective blockade of the Straits from late afternoon on Monday is as risky as it is likely to prove unworkable. It would need a large naval presence of the kind that the US Navy and Marines don’t have to fulfil Trump’s rubric laid out on Truth Social.
“I have instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran,” he wrote on Sunday. “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”
Personnel aboard HMS Middleton prepare the SeaFox, an anti-mine remotely operated vehicle (ROV) used by the Royal Navy to locate and destroy ground and moored mines (Photo: SLt TC TARR (NO) / Royal Navy/ UK MOD)The US Central Command is supposed to decide who it will let through, and when.
The idea that the US Navy and Marine Corps has control of these waters looks delusory. True, as Trump likes to boast, the US and Israel have destroyed much of the surface fleet of the Iranian Navy. But, according to the Wall Street Journal’s investigation this weekend, well over the 70 per cent of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps maritime and commando forces is intact and ready for action.
Dozens of small attack launches, with only a handful of commandos aboard, are able to attack in swarms. These are based in underground pens along the coast. The IRGC also has a big capability of laying and triggering sea mines of varying vintage and sophistication – including smart, submerged mines triggered by only certain types of vessel passing in the vicinity. These are supported by both aerial and sea drones.
The maritime Guards have carried out at at least 50 attacks since 28 February. The Safesea Vishnu tanker – with a Marshall Islands flag, was attacked by explosive-packed drone boats in open waters on 11 March.
Putting together a maritime protection force – on the same lines as the European community–led Armilla Patrol during the Tanker Wars of the late 1980s – should not be difficult. France, Italy, Germany and the Netherland are already preparing.
For the UK this is now a real test – and the outcome cannot be delayed. At last week’s London Defence Conference, delegates from Europe, the US, Japan and Taiwan, were dismayed at how bereft UK defence thinking and policy appeared to be. Admittedly this was based on distinctly below-par performances by Healey and the armed services chief Sir Richard Knighton.
Deficiencies are well known. The only ship sent to the conflict region, HMS Dragon, has broken down lacking the ability to make fresh water. A Nato naval exercise due to be led by the Royal Navy has had to give the flag to a German destroyer. The UK now has less than half a dozen frigates and destroyers ready for operations inside a month. When Healey proclaimed to the conference that “Putin, our forces are watching you,” he got the biggest laugh of the day.
Last June we were given the shiny Strategic Defence Review, outlining in 62 points a reform of Britain’s defence and strategic posture. It depended on money from the new Defence Investment Plan. Due last September, we are now told that we are unlikely to get the DIP this summer, if at all.
Vital reform for vital tasks like Hormuz security can be done with real will and ingenious funding through defence investment bonds and a series of workarounds. Most of all, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer must address the reluctance of himself and senior colleagues to take defence seriously in the disturbingly frightening context of today’s threats and events.
Nato is changing and is bound to become less American and more European, though it is likely that global partners such as Japan and Australia are likely to join de facto or de jure.
The crunch will come at the major annual Nato summit on 7-8 July in Ankara , Turkey, another non-European partner. American most likely will, and should, maintain the Nato nuclear umbrella – because it is integral to the defence of the US home territory itself.
For the rest, Europeans will have to take over the heavy lifting of the alliance. Trump is fed up with Nato and the Europeans – not recognising that this is how America has wanted it until now – and has benefited.
Now the rain check. Trump is fed up with Europe and Nato. But the European partners – UK should be included – are pretty fed up with his capricious ways and unilateral wars of choice. And fed up they and we are for very good reason.
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