Vladimir Putin‘s “Trojan horse” campaign against Europe and the West faces a major setback if his long-time ally Viktor Orbán is ousted from power in Hungary after 16 years in charge.
The parliamentary elections today could prove a turning point, not only for Hungary‘s domestic politics, but also for European Union and the balance of power between Russia and the West.
Orbán, the incumbent, and his right-wing Christian nationalist Fidesz party are facing off against the centre-right opposition party Tisza led by Péter Magyar.
Orbán, who has been in power continuously since 2010 – and was previously in power from 1998 to 2002 – has reshaped Hungary into what he has dubbed an “illiberal democracy”, taking over institutions including the media and judiciary. He has taken a resolutely anti-EU and anti-Ukraine line, long claiming that Kyiv is trying to drag Hungary into the war, and only he can prevent that.
Much of Hungary’s EU funding has been partially blocked since 2018 following concerns raised in the European Parliament that “the Hungarian government is repeatedly and systematically undermining the EU’s founding values”.
A placard depicting Orbán and Putin as a Matryoshka doll during a protest against Orbán ahead of the election at the Heroes’ Square, in Budapest on Friday (Photo: Bernadett Szabo/ Reuters)‘Hungary is a Russian Trojan horse’
“Hungary under Fidesz has long been a Russian Trojan horse within the European Union: disrupting and blocking support for Ukraine, delaying sanctions on Russia and – recent leaks have confirmed – passing details of intra-European discussions directly to Moscow,” said Jeremy Cliffe, Editorial Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“It also served Russia’s long-term influence in the EU by making Budapest a hub – intellectual, logistical, political – for nationalists across Europe,” he added.
Orbán’s defeat would mark Russia‘s loss of its closest ally within the EU. The leader has received significant criticism across Europe for his continued support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, most recently for his staunch opposition to a proposed €90bn (£67bn) loan for Ukraine.
“By contrast, Tisza has argued for reducing Hungary’s dependence on Russia and for its realignment with the rest of the EU. It would likely take an election win as a mandate to enact this shift,” Cliffe said.
A victory by Magyar’s more pro-European party would come as a major setback for Russia’s political influence, and a new lease of life for the EU. “If Magyar were to win, he would likely seek to reset relations with the EU, unlock funding, and adopt a more co-operative stance on Ukraine,” said Dr Dimitar Keranov, visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
“No other European political player can offer the same level of influence and access to Russia because for a very long period, Prime Minister Orbán has been the only European head of government at the Council from the pro-Russian far right,” said Daniel Hegedüs, deputy director of the Institute for European Politics in Berlin.
Orbán votes for the general election at a polling station in Budapest on 12 (Photo: Salih Okuroglu/Anadolu via Getty Images)“He is the main spoiler, the main disrupter and if he is gone the influence of forces who wish to see a disunited EU will be gone,” he added.
Orbán received support from other far-right political groups including Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, as well Donald Trump’s US administration. Vice-President, JD Vance, lauded the Prime Minister during a visit to Budapest last week and reiterated that he had Trump’s backing.
The elections have become “a political battleground,” said Hegedüs. “No one has undermined EU unity over the past 16 years to a comparable level. This is in the interests of the Kremlin, the Maga Republicans and the European far right.”
If elected, Magyar’s party is expected begin repairing Hungary’s damaged relationships within the EU and will likely abandon the current blockage to the aid package for Ukraine, Hegedüs added.
If Magyar wins, there is likely to be a consequential pro-Western shift at least from the top of the new Hungarian government, according to Márta Pardavi, co-chair of the Hungarian Helsinki Committee.
Peter Magyar, lead candidate of the Tisza party, arrives to cast his vote in Hungarian parliamentary elections in Budapest (Photo: Janos Kummer/Getty Images)“It is consequential mainly because Orbán has been so extreme with his focus on Russia – his government has been accused of supplying EU information to Russia. Magyar will likely be more moderate and oriented towards working with EU institutions. This will also have positive consequences for Ukraine, and for Britain in its support for Ukraine. For example, it will be a big change to have EU funding for Ukraine enabled without the constant threat of a veto from Hungary.”
Greater cohesion within the European Union may also benefit Britain’s foreign policy. “It would make European co-ordination easier on the very files Britain cares most about: Russia, Ukraine, sanctions credibility, and continental security,” said Grégoire Roos, director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia programmes at Chatham House. “That matters more, not less, in a moment of transatlantic strain.”
Why the result is hard to predict
Opinion polls suggest that Hungarians are looking for change, with pollsters putting Magyar ten points ahead, at 49 to 39.
However despite Tisza’s comfortable lead, victory is not certain. Dr Stroschein, reader in politics at University College London, said a contested vote was not out of the question.
“The main thing is that it depends a lot on the election margins. With a large margin it will be hard to contest for either side. With a close margin, there is more room for contestation,” she said.
Schäffer said the stakes were huge for the EU. Were Orbán to remain in power despite losing the election, he said, “we might arrive at a situation where we have to dismantle the European Union and establish it without Hungary.”
He added: “We might find ourselves in a situation we’ve never experienced before where we might have to accept a government in exile.”
Orbán with US Vice President JD Vance at an election rally in Budapest last week (Photo: Denes Erdos/ AP)However, even a Magyar win would by no means guarantee a fast return to European political norms.
“We are projecting all of our hopes onto Magyar but we don’t know what he’s going to do,” said Sebastian Schäffer, Director at the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe.
Magyar started out as a politician in Orbán’s government. He was largely unknown until February 2024, when he denounced the government after it was revealed it had pardoned someone involvement in a child sexual abuse scandal. He had already been collecting evidence of corruption in the party, and used it to strengthen his accusations against the party.
Anti-corruption has become his campaign brand. While Orbán has increasingly focused on international issues, Magyar has underlined the impact of corrupt practices on Hungarians’ daily lives, promising to clear up politics and lower bills.
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