The lives of millions of people across the Middle East – and the fate of the global economy – will hinge on the outcome of make-or-break talks between the US and Iran this weekend in Pakistan.
The streets of the capital Islamabad were emptied ahead of the talks by a sudden two-day public holiday, declared to enforce strict security for the arrival of the American and Iranian delegations.
A fragile two-week ceasefire that paved the way for the talks is holding for now. But Israel’s massive and deadly bombardment of Lebanon and disagreements over whether Lebanon is included in the truce could derail the uneasy calm.
The key question now is whether the talks will produce some sort of middle ground – or whether they will collapse and restart a war that has already wrought destruction across parts of the Middle East and sparked a historic global oil crisis.
Here’s what we know:
Who will be at the talks?
The talks are set to begin Saturday morning local time in Islamabad, according to the White House.
The US delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son in law.
Prior to his departure for Islamabad, Vance told reporters “We’re looking forward to the negotiation. I think it’s going to be positive.”
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (L) delivers a press conference with Jared Kushner at the Elysee Palace in Paris on January 6, 2026.Ludovic Marin/AFP/POOL/Getty Images
Tehran’s delegation will will be led by the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars reported. A regime insider with a reputation for suppressing dissent, Ghalibaf has emerged as a key interlocutor with the Trump administration throughout the war. Many of Iran’s leaders have been killed by US-Israeli strikes in recent weeks.
He will be accompanied by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, as well as some members of parliament, Fars reported.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the talks a “make-or-break moment” in a national address on Friday.
“The Pakistani leadership will make sure these talks are successful by putting in their best efforts,” Sharif said. “It is all in God’s hands.”
What will they talk about?
Given the two sides can’t seem to agree about what’s in the ceasefire, aligning on the agenda for the talks may be tricky.
Trump has cited “a 10-point proposal from Iran,” which he called “a workable basis on which to negotiate.”
But then Iran began sharing a 10-point list that included demands the US could never agree to, such as acknowledging its control over the Strait of Hormuz and reparations for war damages and the lifting of all sanctions. Other versions published on state media also included recognizing the country’s right to nuclear enrichment.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had been referring to a different 10-point plan that was “more reasonable.”
Meanwhile Trump and his team have their own 15-point proposal. That plan has not been revealed in full but is said to include Iran committing to no nuclear weapons, handing over its highly enriched uranium, limits on Tehran’s defense capabilities, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking at Joint Base Andrews Friday, Trump said his main focus in a deal with Iran is curtailing the country’s nuclear program.
“No nuclear weapon. That’s 99% of it,” he said.
What is happening in Lebanon?
Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire is an ongoing matter of contention which also risks upending the truce.
Iran has repeatedly said the ceasefire covers attacks against its Lebanon-based proxy Hezbollah, echoing the stance of Pakistan, which helped broker the deal. But Israel and the US have said the ceasefire does not include Lebanon.
On Wednesday, just hours after the ceasefire came into effect, Israel launched its biggest wave of strikes in Lebanon since the war began, pounding busy neighborhoods without warning and killing at least 303 people and wounding more than 1,000, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. It marked Lebanon’s deadliest day since September 2024.
Smoke rises following several Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday, April 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)Hassan Ammar/AP
The attacks drew ire from Iran, which said talks could not begin without a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Criticism of Israel also poured in from across the globe, including from European and Gulf powers fearful that the ceasefire could unravel before talks even begin.
Vance said there had been a “legitimate misunderstanding” regarding Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire.
He also said Israelis may “check themselves a little bit” with their ongoing strikes.
Following a “tense” phone call with Trump, according to a US and Israeli source, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will seek direct talks with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah.
Lebanon’s prime minister will travel to Washington in the coming days, a Lebanese government source told CNN.
Israeli and Lebanese diplomats are also set to meet in Washington next week to discuss ceasefire negotiations.
What about the Strait of Hormuz?
Reopening the critical waterway, which has been effectively shuttered by Iran for weeks, wreaking havoc on global oil markets, was another part of the deal, according to the White House.
But since the ceasefire, only a handful of vessels have been able to pass through the chokepoint. Hundreds of vessels are still stuck in the Persian Gulf with thousands of crew on board.
Iran halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel attacked Lebanon, semi-official news agency Fars reported.
Vance on Thursday reiterated that if Iran does not follow through on promises to reopen the strait, the ceasefire will end.
Trump mocked Tehran’s negotiating position in a post on Truth Social on on Friday, saying Iran has “no cards” other than short-term “extortion” with the Strait of Hormuz.
Boats overlooking the strait of Hormuz, in Musandam governance in Oman on April 8, 2026.Reuters
Will the talks achieve anything?
It’s hard to say whether the gulf between the two sides will be bridged over a weekend in Pakistan.
Both the US and Iran have expressed cautious optimism that negotiations could lead to a deal.
Trump told NBC he was “very optimistic” about a peace deal out of this weekend’s talks in Islamabad, telling the outlet that Iran’s leaders seemed open to peace in private discussions.
“They’re much more reasonable,” he told NBC. “They’re agreeing to all the things that they have to agree to. Remember, they’ve been conquered. They have no military.”
“We have goodwill, but we do not trust,” Iran’s top negotiator Ghalibaf said as he arrived in Islamabad, Iran’s state media reported.
Ghalibaf said if the US is “ready for a genuine agreement,” then Iran could be as well.
“Unfortunately, our experience of negotiating with the Americans has always ended in failure and violations of commitments,” he added.
According to sources familiar with the ceasefire talks, the weekend meeting is expected to be the first of several intense negotiations regarding a longer term, lasting deal to end the war.
Ross Adkin, Jessie Yeung, Michael Rios, Maureen Chowdhury, Dana Karni, Mohammed Tawfeeq, Tal Shalev, Lauren Said-Moorhouse, Tamara Qiblawi, Charbel Mallo, Jennifer Hansler, Kylie Atwood, Sophie Tanno, Magdalena Sofia Vitores Moreno, Rhea Mogul, Sophia Saifi, Max Saltman, Mitchell McCluskey and Riane Lumer contributed reporting.
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