We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League clash at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Manchester City prediction and preview. Can the visitors keep the pressure on at the top of the Premier League?
Chelsea vs Manchester City: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer is anticipating a tight contest, but Manchester City are the model’s favourites, with a 41.2% win probability against Chelsea. Man City have won four of their last five away Premier League games against Chelsea (D1), as many as they had in their previous 26 league visits to Stamford Bridge (D8 L14). Chelsea are winless in their last nine Premier League games against Man City (D3 L6) since a 2-1 away win in May 2021.A few short weeks ago, Arsenal looked on course for a quadruple and, at the very least, a domestic treble.
Now, as the Premier League resumes after a three-week break, the Gunners are still nine points clear at the top, but Manchester City have clinched the first trophy of the season, are into the FA Cup semi-finals – with Arsenal losing to Southampton – and potentially have a psychological advantage.
Arsenal’s win over Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League got them back on course, but City have momentum. And we all know how important that can be in a title race.
This weekend, City head to London to take on a Chelsea team looking to make amends for a sorry display away at Everton in their last league outing, though the Blues did storm into the FA Cup semi-finals by thrashing Port Vale last week.
Sunday’s game comes after Arsenal have faced Bournemouth, so the gap at the top could well be extended to 12 points by the time kick-off rolls around at Stamford Bridge. Or, if the Gunners slip up again, then Pep Guardiola’s men may well feel the race is well and truly on.
Next weekend (19 April) sees the Premier League’s top two clash at the Etihad Stadium, so going into that huge contest on the back of a win will be crucial for City.
And this is the time of year they just tend to come good, especially under Guardiola.
In fact, City have won 28 of their last 31 Premier League games in the month of April (D2 L1). Under Guardiola, the Citizens average 2.50 points per game in the competition in April (P38 W30 D5 L3), the highest rate of any team to play 15+ matches in a specific month under a manager. Guardiola’s Man City side are also in second place in that list, with 2.47 points per game in May.
Run-in City are a different beast, and Arsenal will be well aware of it. They will also be hoping for a helping hand from their London rivals.
Chelsea have lost their last two league games, leaving them in sixth, but just two points above Brentford and Everton, who face off on Saturday, in a congested race for European qualification.
The Opta supercomputer is predicting Chelsea to finish sixth (27.3%), while they finish fifth in 24.1% of simulations and seventh in 16.5%, but there’s no doubt the pressure is on Liam Rosenior to deliver a higher standard of displays in the top flight than the Blues have been showing.
After winning each of their first four Premier League games under Rosenior, Chelsea have since won just one of their last six (D2 L3). Since the start of this period (February 10th, a 2-2 draw with Leeds United), only Leeds (four) and Tottenham (one) have fewer points in the competition than the Blues (five).
Indeed, Chelsea have lost their last two league matches. The Blues last lost three in a row in May 2023 (four), and last did so without scoring in March 1998 (four).
If Chelsea are to get back on course against City, then they will have to do so without Enzo Fernández, as he serves the second game of his two-match, club-enforced suspension.
Fernández has made more passes that have broken the opposition’s defensive line than any player in the Premier League this season (41).
He has also made 36 line-breaking passes into the opposition’s penalty area, a joint-high with Bruno Fernandes, while the Argentine’s 51 chances created also tops Chelsea’s squad in the Premier League.
The creative onus will likely fall, then, on former City attacker Cole Palmer.
Despite playing only 20 Premier League games this season, Palmer is the Blues’ second-highest scorer in the top flight, with nine goals, behind only João Pedro (14).
He has registered 5.9 open-play shot-ending sequence involvements per 90 in the league this term, which ranks joint-third in Chelsea’s squad.
Going the other way, Erling Haaland comes into this game on the back of netting a hat-trick in Man City’s 4-0 thrashing of Liverpool in the FA Cup last week.
However, after scoring 19 goals in 17 Premier League appearances prior to Christmas this season, Haaland has since scored just three in his last 12 for City – two of which have been penalties.
Indeed, before Christmas, he was averaging 0.89 non-penalty expected goals per 90 in the 2025-26 Premier League; since, this has dropped to 0.32.
If City are to push Arsenal all the way for the title, they need Haaland back at top form.
Bernardo Silva’s next appearance in the Premier League, meanwhile, will be his 297th, setting a new record by a Portuguese player in the competition, surpassing Luís Boa Morte’s 296.
After netting against West Ham last time out, Silva is aiming to score in back-to-back league appearances for Man City for the first time since March 2023.
Should we expect plenty of goalmouth action in this one?
Well, City (51) and Chelsea (50) have had more shots following high turnovers than any other sides in the Premier League this season.
Indeed, in the reverse meeting between these two sides in January, City recorded 24 high turnovers against the Blues – the most by any side in a single Premier League match this season.
Chelsea vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Chelsea are winless in their last nine Premier League games against Man City (D3 L6) since a 2-1 away win in May 2021.
City, on the other hand, have won four of their last five away Premier League games against Chelsea (D1), as many as they had in their previous 26 league visits to Stamford Bridge (D8 L14).
Chelsea vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer does not hand Man City much of a chance of surpassing Arsenal to win the title, rating their chances at just 2.7%.
However, the model fancies City to get the points here, just about.
Guardiola’s team come out on top in 41.2% of the data-led sims, while Chelsea are victorious in 33.1%. There is a 25.7% probability of a draw.
Chelsea vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Malo Gusto, Wesley Fofana, Tosin Adarabioyo, Marc Cucurella, Roméo Lavia, Moisés Caicedo, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Alejandro Garnacho, João Pedro.
Head coach: Liam Rosenior
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guéhi, Rayan Aït-Nouri, Nico González, Rodri, Antoine Semenyo, Bernardo Silva, Rayan Cherki, Erling Haaland.
Manager: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday in west London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.
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Chelsea vs Manchester City Prediction: Can Pep Guardiola’s Men Keep the Pressure on Arsenal? Opta Analyst.
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