News of the warning, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal, comes as Democratic lawmakers have raised concerns about possible insider trading, pointing to a number of profitable trades and bets placed shortly before President Donald Trump announced decisions related to the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran.
According to Bloomberg, contracts covering at least six million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude, amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars, were sold within two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m. in New York on the day of Trump’s post. The activity was significantly higher than the average of 700,000 barrels sold during the same time period over the previous five trading days, according to Bloomberg.
On March 23, Sens. Adam Schiff (D, Calif.) and John Curtis (R, Utah) introduced legislation that would ban prediction markets from listing contracts that resemble sports bets or casino-style games. Shortly after, Kalshi and Polymarket said they would introduce new guardrails to prevent insider trading. Kalshi, which is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said it would ban political candidates from trading related to their own campaigns and people involved in college or professional sports from trading connected to the sports they are involved in.
On April 7, at least 50 newly created Polymarket accounts placed substantial bets that the U.S. and Iran would agree to a cease-fire shortly before Trump announced the deal on Truth Social at around 6:30 p.m. E.T. The bets, which generated hundreds of thousands of dollars in profit, were made as Trump had continued to escalate threats against Iran, warning that “a whole civilization will die.” Iran had also not yet indicated any plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital corridor for global energy trade that has been militarized by Iran since the start of the war.
“All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit. However, any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting,” Ingle added.
Nevertheless, some lawmakers have voiced concerns about unusual trading activity. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D, Conn.) sent a letter to Polymarket on Thursday asking the company to explain its failure to regulate trades related to U.S. national security matters. Blumenthal cited the April 7 trades.
Last month, Blumenthal introduced legislation alongside Sen. Andy Kim (D, N.J.) seeking to regulate prediction markets, including banning listings related to war, death, and military action.
Rep. Ritchie Torres (D, N.Y.) sent a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC asking the commissions to investigate trading that happened in the minutes before Trump’s March 23 announcement. The lawmaker told Bloomberg that the “sheer speed, scale and structure of the trade” appeared suspicious.
TIME has reached out to the White House, SEC, CFTC, Polymarket, and Kalshi for comment.
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