A hastily agreed ceasefire pausing the Iran war is under threat after Israel’s deadliest attacks yet on Lebanon and Iranian strikes across the Gulf on Wednesday, with the status of the Hormuz Strait still in doubt.
Iran has threatened to withdraw from scheduled talks in Pakistan on Friday, claiming several key clauses that were to be the basis of negotiations have been violated, while Donald Trump has said that US forces will remain in the region ready to resume and escalate attacks on Iran if no agreement is reached.
As mediators scramble to bridge the divides and avoid a breakdown that could bring a devastating new phase of war and further shocks to the global economy, the coming days could prove decisive, with a range of possible outcomes.
A ‘bigger and better’ return to war
With missiles flying after the announcement of the truce, as well as a vast gulf between the terms of the US, Israel, and Iran, and all sides believing they hold the upper hand, many analysts doubt the ceasefire will hold.
Washington is demanding that Iran drastically curb its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, end support for allied militias across the Middle East, and end restrictions on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that have paralysed energy supplies.
Iran has rejected all of those demands while seeking recognition of its sovereignty over Hormuz, reparations over war damage, and an end to Israel’s war on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Dina Esfandiary, a Gulf security expert and Middle East lead at Bloomberg Geoeconomics, believes a return to fighting is more likely than a deal.
President Trump has agreed a tentative ceasefire with the leadership of Iran (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images)“I don’t think it’ll be much of a ceasefire. I think it’ll be more of a pause,” she said. “The two sides are still too far apart, because an emboldened Iran is making some pretty hefty asks of the US, and I don’t think the Trump administration will be willing to give in.”
Iran’s stockpile of an estimated 440kg of highly enriched uranium, close to weapons grade, is a central issue. Trump has repeatedly described the threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon as the main reason for military action and the removal of what he calls “nuclear dust”.
Iran denies it is seeking a nuclear weapon but defends its right to enrichment. It has previously agreed to some limits on its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
Israel’s campaign in Lebanon is likely to be a sticking point, as it is escalating rather than winding down. The Israeli military launched a new phase under the name “Operation Eternal Darkness” ahead of strikes that killed more than 250 yesterday, and it has thousands of troops pressing ahead with ground operations inside Lebanese territory.
Israel’s leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, is under domestic pressure not to give ground after the ceasefire with Iran was reached before the achievement of his stated war aims that included regime change and the destruction of Iran’s missile capabilities. Opposition leader Yair Lapid accused him of leading a “strategic debacle” and a “diplomatic disaster”.
Iran maintains the ceasefire must cover Lebanon and claims this was agreed through mediators. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Wednesday that the US “must choose – ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both.”
For now, the US is backing Israel’s campaign in Lebanon, and denies it is part of the ceasefire. Without a significant shift from one or more sides, an agreement appears unlikely. If so, Trump warns, “The Shootin’ Starts, bigger and better.”
Rescuers at the site of an Israeli strike carried out on Wednesday, in Al-Mazraa in Beirut, Lebanon on Thursday (Photo: Raghed Waked/ Reuters)The US withdraws, Israel fights on
Netanyahu acknowledged that Israel “has more goals to complete” in Iran and is “ready to return to fighting at any time”.
Some Israeli analysts believe the country could fight on without direct US involvement, as it did during the 12-day war with Iran last June before Trump’s attacks on nuclear sites.
Professor Kobi Michael, a military analyst at Israeli think-tank the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, said Israel could continue strikes on Iran without US involvement, although it would hope for Trump to re-enter the war.
Analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC suggests that even if a ceasefire holds, Israel and Iran “will remain locked in a persistent, lower-level conflict rather than transition to a stable peace,” a state that has endured for much of the “shadow war” between the countries over the past 40 years.
With Israel seeking to reshape its strategic position through fighting across several fronts, and a defiant Iran under hardline new leadership seeking to restore deterrence and rebuild allied militias, a US withdrawal from Iran may simply change the nature of the conflict rather than ending it.
A comprehensive deal, or a fudge
While the leaders of Israel, the US and Iran continue to trade threats, there are more optimistic signs on the ground across the region.
Shuttered infrastructure in the Gulf is warily beginning to resume services, such as Bahrain’s main international airport. Israel has announced that children can return to school without the threat of missile barrages. Foreign embassies are reopening in Iran.
Economists predict that some of the baked-in effects of fuel supply chain disruption will begin to be felt over the two-week truce, which could disincentivise leaders from rushing to a return to war.
Amos Yadlin, former head of Israel’s military intelligence, told The i Paper that while no side could claim to have achieved all of their war aims, they would “see the other alternative” to the ceasefire “as more problematic” at this point.
Trump has reportedly grown increasingly anxious to extricate himself from a spiralling conflict in recent weeks, having expected a swift and decisive victory. The President is facing mounting domestic opposition and midterm elections later this year that could shape his final years in office.
Cargo ships in the Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz. The US is demanding an end to restrictions on commercial shipping through the Strait that have paralysed energy supplies (Photo: Reuters)Both Israel and Iran have taken heavy damage on the domestic front and have stretched their military resources over 40 days of high-intensity warfare.
While the gaps in negotiating positions are significant, Trump has signalled flexibility over an arrangement that would allow Iran funds for reconstruction, either through a regional framework over the Strait of Hormuz or sanctions relief.
Elaborate formulas for Iran’s nuclear material have been developed over years of negotiations, with a variety of creative workarounds potentially on the table, such as sending the highly enriched uranium stockpile to a neutral overseas party.
Lebanese analysts suggest that Iran could be prepared to decouple the fronts if some of its other demands are met, while the US could apply pressure to Israel to at least limit – if not end – its campaign in Lebanon.
If a full agreement cannot be achieved, Trump also has the option of simply extending the ceasefire and returning to the holding pattern of containing Iran and its nuclear ambitions that several previous administrations have favoured.
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