The Premier League restarts on Friday, with seven full rounds of matches left to play. Here, we look at seven issues that need resolving in the season’s remaining weeks.
It’s been three weeks since the last round of Premier League fixtures, but this weekend, the Best League in the World is back.
Seven rounds of fixtures remain before the season is out (plus one game between Manchester City and Crystal Palace) and everything is still to be decided. All 20 teams (just about) still have something to play for.
So, what are the main storylines that need to be written between now and the end of the campaign? We’ve picked out the seven biggest.
Can Arsenal Get Over the Line?
Only a few weeks ago, Arsenal looked in decent shape to win the quadruple, but after a relatively unexpected defeat to Manchester City in the EFL Cup final and a very much unexpected loss at second-tier Southampton in the FA Cup, they now only stand any chance of winning two competitions.
Those two losses – and with them, two more failures to follow through on their potential and win a trophy – follow three consecutive seasons of Arsenal coming close to winning the Premier League but ultimately falling short. The pain of past failures is holding this team back, and those two cup losses won’t have helped the feeling that this brilliant Arsenal team struggle to finish jobs off.
With every slip-up – or even near slip-up – anxiety grows that history is going to repeat itself. One only need look at the outpouring of emotion when Max Dowman put the result beyond doubt in the home win over Everton last month to see just how nervous the team and their fanbase are.
A kind draw has increased their chances of Champions League glory, but the Premier League remains their biggest hope of silverware this season. A nine-point cushion to City in second should be enough, even if Pep Guardiola’s side have a game in hand. Only one team has ever come back from a nine-point deficit this late into the season to win the title – City were nine behind after 33 games in 2013-14, but they had two games in hand rather than the one they have now.
The gap right now could in fact be considered six points if City are assumed to win their game in hand. And if City win their meeting with Arsenal next weekend, nerves could start jangling at the Emirates.
The truth is, though, even if Arsenal drop points, City also have to win all of their games. They’ve won only five of their last 12 Premier League games, and they would all of a sudden need to win eight in a row.
There’s a good reason Arsenal won the title in 97.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s latest simulations at the time of writing. It would take something monumental for them not to win it from here.
Which Three Teams Will Earn a Champions League Spot?
Although it’s not officially official, the teams who finish in the top five positions in the Premier League will qualify for next season’s Champions League. Arsenal and City probably have the top two spots wrapped up, but beyond that, there’s plenty to play for, meaning three more places are up for grabs.
Manchester United are the race’s form team, having lost only one of their last 14 matches, and they are also in the best position already, sitting third as things stand, with a seven-point cushion to sixth place.
Aston Villa are only one point behind but their form could hardly be more contrasting. Unai Emery’s men have won only four of their last 13 Premier League games, in which time, just five teams have picked up fewer points, while the teams with better records include Wolves and West Ham.
Liverpool occupy the final spot but they have some tough fixtures remaining (though not as tough as sixth-placed Chelsea, according to our analysis), including facing Everton, United, Chelsea and Villa. Their erratic recent form suggests there will be more wobbles before the season is out.
Chelsea are the likeliest challengers to the current top five given their pedigree in the competition, but before their FA Cup win over Port Vale, Liam Rosenior’s side had lost four games in a row and hadn’t even scored in three.
As many as eight more teams may fancy their chances of sneaking into the Champions League, with seven of them within seven points of Liverpool.
They won’t all stick around. There’s every chance that within a few weeks, most of them will have little to no chance of a top-five finish. But that doesn’t mean the season will be over for them…
Will There Be a Debutant in Europe?
The Premier League getting five Champions League spots means sixth and seventh will qualify for European football, too, and that means the rest of the season remains very meaningful indeed for every team in the division.
Brentford currently occupy seventh position, but there are six teams within four points of them, and Crystal Palace could make it seven teams if they win their game in hand. Of that group, Brentford and Bournemouth have never played in Europe before, and Brentford in particular have a very good chance of making it in. The Opta supercomputer rates their chances of a top-seven finish at 43.2%.
Even if both potential debutants fall away, there are lots of other exciting options among the teams who could qualify for Europe. Brighton, Palace and Sunderland have each only played in major European competition once. Sunderland only played in the Cup Winners’ Cup way back in 1975-76, and even if Palace and Brighton have been in Europe much more recently (Palace are still in the Conference League this season), they would love another shot at it just as much.
Everton, Fulham and Newcastle all have much more experience in Europe but have hardly been regulars in recent years. Each would consider the Europa League or Conference League winnable.
It would be exciting if any of these teams made it into Europe for next season, but the prospect of another debutant makes for an even better end to 2025-26.
Can De Zerbi Save Tottenham?
Some very big clubs have played in the Championship in the last few years. Newcastle, Aston Villa, Leeds, Leicester City, Sunderland and Nottingham Forest are just six former English champions who have played second-tier football very recently indeed.
But even so, Tottenham being in the second tier feels like it would be a new extreme. This is a club who have been in Europe in 18 of the last 20 seasons and contested the Champions League final only seven years ago. They have one of the biggest, most modern and most expensive stadiums in England, and they also now have one of the Premier League’s most well-paid managers in the recently appointed Roberto De Zerbi.
All they need is a ‘new-manager bounce’. Two, or maybe three wins, could be enough to save them.
But that is much easier said than done. They haven’t won in the league this year. And there was no ‘new-manager bounce’ whatsoever under Igor Tudor, so De Zerbi will need to do things very differently if he is to get one.
More on Tottenham
Premier LeagueWhat is Roberto De Zerbi’s Style of Play and Can Tottenham Learn It Quickly?
5 days ago Ali TweedaleHe does at least play a completely different style of football to Tudor or Thomas Frank, and it will be fascinating to see just how extremely he asks his players to adopt his possession-based game given he has had just over a week to work with the players.
The Opta supercomputer is still backing Spurs to escape, with their chances of relegation rated at 26.2%, but they need to rediscover how to win matches, and fast.
Can Bruno Break the Assists Record?
A handful of players have threatened to break the record for the most assists in a Premier League season over the 23 years since Thierry Henry set it at 20, but nobody has managed it. Bruno Fernandes is the latest to suggest he could.
In 2002-03, Henry got 20 assists, and nobody has topped that number in the years since.
The record Bruno is chasing
Premier LeagueThe Most Assists in a Premier League Season
3 weeks ago David SegarKevin De Bruyne equalled it in 2019-20 but couldn’t quite edge past it, while Mesut Özil (19 in 2015-16) and Mohamed Salah (18 last season) both charged towards the 20-mark only to run out of steam in the latter stages of the season.
Fernandes, though, has been accelerating with gusto through the winter and spring. After picking up only three assists in his first 11 Premier League appearances of the season, he has 13 in his last 17 games, including four in his last four. He is on 16 assists for 2025-26 with seven league games remaining, meaning five more would break the record.
United have plenty to play for with Champions League football to chase and they will want to build up more momentum to carry into next season. And Fernandes will have a personal goal at the front of his mind as he aims to help his team end the campaign positively.
Will Cup Competitions Distract Anyone?
Eight of the 20 Premier League teams are still competing in another competition, and while every one of them will want to win those cups, none will want their Premier League ambitions to be hurt too much by progress elsewhere.
Arsenal are hoping to win the Champions League, but they would probably rather finally win the Premier League if they had to choose between the two, while Man City would be happy to sacrifice the FA Cup if that gave them more chance of chasing Arsenal down at the top of the table.
Liverpool are still clinging on in Europe and will want to give it their best shot in the second leg against PSG, while a trophy would be even more meaningful for Aston Villa, who haven’t won one since 1996. However, both will also want to end the league season strongly, even with the added consideration that if either of them won their respective European competitions, they would qualify for next season’s Champions League.
Chelsea could rescue a disappointing campaign with an FA Cup win, but qualifying for the Champions League is surely as big a goal of theirs.
Lower down the table, however, the cups may be a bigger priority. Crystal Palace are safe and will go for it in the Conference League, but Nottingham Forest and Leeds are still in a relegation battle, yet both have pasts filled with trophies and would surely love to taste glory again.
Neither have won a major trophy since the early 1990s and both have their best chance in a long, long time of ending those droughts. It might sound mad to say it, but some fans might even be content with relegation if they also won a trophy.
Wolves Couldn’t… Could They?
Wolves have had a season to forget. They have been doomed ever since they failed to win any of their first 19 matches, and even if there has been an improvement since, they will almost certainly be playing Championship football next season.
They have, however, still got something to play for, because they have recovered from straying worryingly close to threatening Derby County’s record for the fewest points in a Premier League season to now being only three points behind Burnley. Remarkably, given where they were at the midway point in the season, with three points from 19 games, Wolves could finish off the bottom. The Opta supercomputer says they have a 42.1% chance of doing so, which sounds very reasonable indeed.
Wolves’ outside chance?
Premier LeaguePremier League Fixture Difficulty: How the Run-In Could Impact Title, European Qualification and Relegation
3 hours ago Ryan BensonIn fact, in the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, Wolves escaped the drop seven times. It’s a slim possibility, but it’s not quite zero. They also have the easiest remaining fixtures of every team in the division, too. Starting to sound interesting, isn’t it?
Rob Edwards and his team will give it their best shot.
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Arsenal’s Title to Lose, a Potentially Huge Relegation Shock and a 14-Team European Battle: Seven Questions for the Seven-Game Run-In Opta Analyst.
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