The final straight of the 2025-26 Premier League season is almost upon us. Here, we look at how fixture schedules could be decisive.
It’s a slightly curious time in the 2025-26 Premier League season. With the final international window of the campaign followed by an FA Cup weekend, nearly three weeks will have passed since Matchday 31 when Matchday 32 begins on Friday. It still feels like we’re in a bit of a lull.
For some, the break will have been welcome. For others, it may have cost them crucial momentum. Either way, no one can afford to casually saunter back into the action as the home straight is now upon us, and it will decide everything.
But no two run-ins are equal.
Sure, every team plays the same number of fixtures over a league campaign, but just because one side are tough to beat in October, it doesn’t mean they will be in April – and vice versa.
At this stage of the season, it’s only natural to look at the fixture list in an attempt to work out who is likely to be least hindered by the games they have left – and with lots to play for, having a kinder schedule can make all the difference.
The Opta Power Rankings allow us to quantify the difficulty levels of the run-in, and we’ve used the data to look at the main areas of the table…
Title and Champions League Qualification
Arsenal and Manchester City had polarising outcomes in the FA Cup quarter-finals last weekend, but the Gunners are still very much in the driving seat in the Premier League.
That doesn’t mean they don’t still have work to do, though. Their surprise loss to Southampton showed – albeit with a slightly weakened team – that they are by no means invincible. They may be nine points clear, but City have a game in hand and host Arsenal at the end of next week.
If City win both that match and their game in hand, their respective fixture lists could offer real insight as to where the title will go.
Arsenal do at least have another advantage on their side with respect to fixture schedules. The average Opta Power Rating of their opponents is 90.2, with only three teams deemed to have easier run-ins.
City’s remaining opponents have an average rating of 91.8, and they have an extra game. Of course, it can be tempting to frame a game in hand as a positive when chasing, but the fact is City have been quite inconsistent (by their standards), and that is another opportunity to drop points.
If Arsenal can get through the trip to Manchester with a reasonable lead intact, they will surely have enough to get the title over the line.
Slightly further back, Manchester United are the leading contenders for Champions League qualification, but they do still have to face two of their direct rivals for a UCL place.
In fact, United, Liverpool and Chelsea all have to play each other again, so there’s certainly potential for twists and turns between them.
Chelsea, however, also go up against Man City this weekend, which puts them at the greatest disadvantage of the three clubs – their average opponent rating of 91.8 is slightly higher than Liverpool (91.7), and comfortably up on United’s (91.0).
There’s Aston Villa as well, of course. Currently fourth, their run-in is deemed to be among the easiest of all Premier League clubs (90.2), though finishing the campaign with Liverpool (H) and City (A) is hardly enviable. They’ll hope the latter have nothing left to play for by then.
The positions of Villa and United are strengthened by their fixture schedules when compared to those of Chelsea and Liverpool, though the games between them may prove decisive.
Europa League and Conference League Qualification
Following Arsenal’s Champions League win over Sporting on Tuesday night, fifth place in this season’s Premier League will be enough to secure UCL football next season. That also means the qualification spots for the Europa League and Conference League shunt down a place each.
There could be additional factors to consider that further increase the number of European places, but in the interest of simplicity and clarity, we’re just going to stick with the top seven for now.
English teams in Europe
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2 weeks ago Ali TweedaleCurrently, it’s Brentford (seventh) and Everton (eighth) who are best placed for European qualification, though there’s still a chance either of them – or perhaps even Fulham – could yet usurp Liverpool and/or Chelsea. Champions League qualification isn’t out of the question.
If either are to keep that particular dream alive, this weekend could be pivotal. Brentford host Everton on Saturday, and with neither Chelsea nor Liverpool exactly examples of consistency, a positive result for the Bees or Toffees could really put the cat among the pigeons.
Including this weekend, though, Brentford seemingly have the tougher run-in. The average rating of their opponents between now and the end of the season is 91.8, which is the sixth highest. Among their opposition are Man City, Man Utd and Liverpool.
Everton also have to face Liverpool and City; otherwise, however, they’ll see the remainder as winnable.
As mentioned, Fulham may also see themselves as just about still in contention due to being only two points behind Brentford and Everton.
Nevertheless, the Whites have the second-toughest fixture schedule according to the Opta Power Rankings, with the average rating of their opponents up at 92.7; they’ll do well to overtake those above them, though positive results at Liverpool and Brentford in their next two games would go a long way.
The Relegation Battle
Given the Premier League didn’t have much of a relegation battle in 2023-24 or 2024-25, we can expect this season’s scrap for survival to really capture the imagination – in fact, it already has.
The novelty of having a club like Tottenham in genuine trouble has undoubtedly boosted interest, with their decision to hire Igor Tudor on an interim basis backfiring spectacularly.
Spurs are now onto their third manager of the season after hiring Roberto De Zerbi during the international break. He is at least a coach with Premier League experience, and someone who is broadly seen as an exciting hire.
But does he have enough time to get any of his methods across? Are Spurs too set in their ways? Or is their squad too depleted to hold off the threat of relegation?
Can De Zerbi save Spurs?
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5 days ago Ali TweedaleThey are at least deemed to have an easier run-in than West Ham. Considering it’s the Hammers currently occupying the final relegation spot, this shouldn’t be overlooked.
Spurs’ run-in puts them up against teams with an average rating of 90.2; West Ham’s is 91.2. The fact Nuno Espírito Santo’s men have to face Arsenal will be a factor, though Spurs have tough tussles to look forward to with Aston Villa and Chelsea.
Both West Ham and Spurs will also go up against one of their other relegation rivals, Leeds United.
Of the four teams involved in the relegation scrap (the three mentioned, plus Nottingham Forest), Leeds’ run-in is rated as the easiest (average opponent rating of 89.0).
Not only will they go up against Spurs and West Ham sides who, on current form, are not very impressive, they’ll also face Wolves and Burnley, both of whom are already practically doomed to relegation – though admittedly Wolves’ three-match unbeaten run suggests they are in better shape than at any other stage of the campaign.
Forest’s run-in (90.8) is rated as being tougher than Spurs’ but easier than West Ham’s. Either way, there are still plenty of games in which they could drop points as Aston Villa, Chelsea, Newcastle, Man Utd and Bournemouth all await before the end of the season.
It’s difficult to escape the feeling that Leeds are in the most promising position of those four teams, then. Not only are they the ones with the greatest lead over the bottom three (four points), their run-in would appear to be the kindest.
De Zerbi’s Spurs represent something of an unknown quantity, however, and considering they still have to face both West Ham and Leeds, there’s every reason to think they could hold the key.
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Premier League Fixture Difficulty: How the Run-In Could Impact Title, European Qualification and Relegation Opta Analyst.
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