Could the Chicago area see a “super El Niño” this year and how would it impact the region’s weather?
We are transitioning out of our latest La Niña pattern into ENSO neutral, the phase between La Niña and El Niño, and there’s a high chance of El Niño developing by fall. As our planet and oceans continue to warm from climate change, global impacts are expected to be greater.
What is El Niño / La Niña?
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is monitored over a specific portion of Pacific Ocean near the equator. As the wind shifts over seasons and years, the sea surface temperatures (SST) naturally warm and cool from upwelling and downwelling off the west coast of South America.
El Niño is when we have mean SST + 0.5 degrees Celsius above the climate average over a three-month period.
La Niña is when we have mean SST -0.5 degrees Celsius below the climate average over a three-month period.
What impacts does it have on weather?
The biggest impacts around Chicago happen during the winter months, when moisture and storm patterns are more easily steered by dynamics in the jet stream.
In short, it usually means warmer and drier winters for Chicago.
It also could lead to drought conditions for parts of the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest, while heavy rain and flooding are more likely from southern California to the Gulf Coast.
The stronger the ENSO event is, the more extreme the weather impacts could be. That could mean an intense drought for some, and intense flooding for others.
What is a “super El Niño”?
It’s not a technical term. Ultimately, it’s just a very strong El Niño event, meaning temperatures are far above average.
A weak El Niño is considered between 0.5 degrees and 0.9 degrees Celsius.
A moderate El Niño is 1 degree to 1.4 degrees Celsius.
A strong, or “super,” El Niño is equal to or greater than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The last strong El Niño we had was 2015-2016 when the SST was +2.4°C in the November, December, January three-month average.
That winter finished with about 16 inches of snow and temperatures +4.2° from average.
How could climate change effect El Niño?
Scientists estimate the ocean is absorbing and storing about 90% of the excess heat from global warming. As the world and oceans continue to warm, stronger El Niño events are expected.
The ENSO forecast:
There’s a 62% chance of El Niño emerging by the June-July-August time period, and it’s expected to strengthen going into winter. Forecast models are pointing to at least a moderate to strong El Niño, so we’ll see how they evolve in the coming months.
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